Grain - Hay Report - 22 August 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • There is a big grain crop on the way in northern hemisphere for 2013/14. The risks to this crop are declining by the day and confirms the expectation, but not the guarantee, of lower grain prices over 2013/14.
  • The background is:- US winter wheat harvest is almost complete; EU and Black Sea wheat harvests are 70+% complete; the Canadian wheat and canola crops are being revised upwards, to possibly a record; harvest of the US corn crop is about to start; AND, Australian crop prospects so far are average or better (exceptions are North-West NSW and North-Eastern fringes of WA grain belt where crops are very poor). … but we always should wait for our spring to pass before we can count on this crop being in the bin!

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Grain - Hay Report - 15 August 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • This last week the USDA confirmed to the market what most expected – that there is a BIG grain crop on the way in the northern hemisphere for 2013/14 – which more than likely will drive grain prices lower over 2013/14.
  • Having said that, the market keeps responding to any upside news if a weather problem pops its head up, just like a potential upward move for oilseed prices if a cold snap or frost damages what is already a late US soybean and Canadian canola crop. These are risks, but there is no confirmed damage at this point.
  • The northern hemisphere cereal crops (wheat and corn) are much closer to being in the bin, so the prospect of a price rise coming out of that scenario is getting slim. That leaves the factors which could drive prices higher in the last half of 2013 down to :– a slump in southern hemisphere crop prospects (Aussie crop is coming along well so far), new demand (China can be a wildcard here), or a sliding A$ which could hold A$ prices up. Overall however, the outlook for grain prices into 2013/14 is bearish.

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Grain - Hay Report - 2 August 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • There is growing confidence that larger global crops and rebuilding of grain stock levels over the course of 2013/14 remains the most likely scenario for second half 2013.
  • For wheat, US winter harvest is 80% complete – almost in the bin. For US corn, silking is at 70% complete so the major risk period is almost over. Soybeans still carries some risk as it is only 20% podded versus 34% normal, so is vulnerable to a late freeze. Otherwise, with Black Sea crops coming in close to or above estimates, the market is running out of reasons to maintain a risk premium for doubtful supplies by late 2013. The “weather market” will hover in the background over August-September till the 2013 crops become more secure, but the window for an upset to occur is closing.

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Grain - Hay Report - 25 July 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • As each week ticks by for the northern hemisphere 2013 wheat, corn and soybean crops, another chink is chipped off prices. This reflects growing confidence that larger global crops and rebuilding of grain stock levels over the course of 2013/14 remains the most likely scenario for second half 2013.
  • For wheat, northern hemisphere harvest is well and truly under way and the crop is almost in the bin (spring wheat to come in Aug/Sept). Corn is going through its critical pollination/tasselling stage and so far so good with sufficient moisture despite hot weather. Soybeans have the longest journey to go before harvest, so remain vulnerable for a few more weeks yet. The “weather market” will hover in the background over August-September till the 2013 crops become more secure. With this uncertainty, the market will retain its volatility.

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Grain - Hay Report - 19 July 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • Weather permitting, larger global crops and rebuilding of grain stock levels over the course of 2013/14 remains likely. But, the “weather market” is still hovering in the background over July-September till the 2013 crops become more secure. With this uncertainty, the market will retain its volatility.
  • Grain prices will more than likely be lower in six months time, but “Mother Nature” still needs to deliver average weather over Jul-Sep, and this remains the main caveat on where the market will head. As a guide, Black Sea exporters are selling their new crop aggressively into the Middle East and North African markets, well below current Australian prices.

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Grain - Hay Report - 12 July 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • Weather permitting, larger global crops and rebuilding of grain stock levels over the course of 2013/14 remains likely. But, the “weather market” is still hovering in the background over July-September till the 2013 crops become more secure. With this uncertainty, the market will retain its volatility.
  • Grain prices will more than likely be lower in six months time, but “Mother Nature” still needs to deliver average weather over Jul-Sep, and this remains the main caveat on where the market will head. As a guide, Black Sea exporters are selling their new crop aggressively into the Middle East and North African markets, well below current Australian prices.

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Grain - Hay Report - 5 July 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • Over the last week, the June 28 USDA Crop Report and the International Grains Council monthly report again confirmed the prospect of larger crops and rebuilding of global grain stock levels over the course of 2013/14.
  • Almost all analysts and commentators support the view of a downward price direction for grains for last half 2013. It is hard to argue against this logic; however there remain a few questions for us to watch here in Australia. For example: (1) the sliding A$ is supporting local grain prices, (2) any news of new demand gives the market a reason to stay firm – as happened with some recent Chinese grain buying, (3) there are limited grain stocks on Australia’s east coast till the new crop starts to arrive in Nov/Dec, and (4) “mother nature” needs to have her say over July-October before the northern and southern hemisphere crops are safe.

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Grain - Hay Report - 27 June 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • Crop prospects around the world continue to support the view of a downward price direction for last half 2013. However any news of new demand, especially for old crop (i.e., pre August 2013), gives the market a reason to stay strong – as has happened with recent news of some Chinese grain buying.
  • Winter wheat harvest is under way in the northern hemisphere. The plantings of soybeans, corn and spring wheat crops are virtually complete, so the stage still seems set for bigger crops and stocks over the course of 2013/14, with the constant caveat, SUBJECT TO normal weather over the next few months! Another USDA report is due out on 28 June and it will be an important pointer to the way the market shapes up for the next month or so.

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