Grain - Hay Report - 5 July 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • Over the last week, the June 28 USDA Crop Report and the International Grains Council monthly report again confirmed the prospect of larger crops and rebuilding of global grain stock levels over the course of 2013/14.
  • Almost all analysts and commentators support the view of a downward price direction for grains for last half 2013. It is hard to argue against this logic; however there remain a few questions for us to watch here in Australia. For example: (1) the sliding A$ is supporting local grain prices, (2) any news of new demand gives the market a reason to stay firm – as happened with some recent Chinese grain buying, (3) there are limited grain stocks on Australia’s east coast till the new crop starts to arrive in Nov/Dec, and (4) “mother nature” needs to have her say over July-October before the northern and southern hemisphere crops are safe.

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Grain - Hay Report - 27 June 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • Crop prospects around the world continue to support the view of a downward price direction for last half 2013. However any news of new demand, especially for old crop (i.e., pre August 2013), gives the market a reason to stay strong – as has happened with recent news of some Chinese grain buying.
  • Winter wheat harvest is under way in the northern hemisphere. The plantings of soybeans, corn and spring wheat crops are virtually complete, so the stage still seems set for bigger crops and stocks over the course of 2013/14, with the constant caveat, SUBJECT TO normal weather over the next few months! Another USDA report is due out on 28 June and it will be an important pointer to the way the market shapes up for the next month or so.

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Grain - Hay Report - 13 June 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • The USDA World Grain Supply and Demand estimates were released this week and re-confirmed what we all knew… a major global crop is still on the way for 2013 in the northern hemisphere. Despite some concerns about planting delays for US corn and soybeans over the last few weeks, it looks like those concerns are abating as harvest gets under way down south in Texas.
  • Crops in the Black Sea have been revised down a little due to dryness, but in the end the numbers all point to bigger crops and stocks over the course of 2013/14, but with the constant caveat, SUBJECT TO normal weather over the next few months!

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Grain - Hay Report - 6 June 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • The biggest grain news for the week has been the fantastic rains across South Eastern Australia last weekend which has ensured the establishment of the 2013 winter crops.
  • From Ceduna in South Australia, right across SA, Victoria, all of the Riverina, and up into central NSW as far north as Dubbo, there were falls of 25-40mm and higher. All planned crops will now be sown, with perhaps canola area scaling back a little because of the later break to the season.
  • Globally, markets were steady with concerns still around the delays in planting of the US crop. The focus is now on soybeans, whereas the corn and spring wheat areas have caught up to normal. If the soybean crop gets further delayed, there will be pressure on oilseed and protein meal supplies because the old crop balance sheet for oilseeds is very tight.

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Grain - Hay Report - 30 May 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • With May being a critical month for developing crops in the northern hemisphere, the grain market has now removed another plank of risk from what is still expected to be record world grain crop in 2013. The cereal crops are planted and growing, and generally with good moisture in the major cropping regions.
  • A question mark hangs over the 2013 oilseed crop with planting of both soybeans (in USA) and canola (in Canada) being delayed. The market has reflected this risk concern in its prices. Both wheat and corn futures markets have finished the month of May about where the month started, whereas soybean and canola prices are up about 7%.

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Grain - Hay Report - 23 May 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • A mixed bag for grain prices in Australia this last week. Generally a flat market, but there was some price weakness (about $5 lower) in parts of Victoria in expectation of rains through the cropping regions. This did not eventuate (only 5-10mm through the Mallee-Wimmera) so the caution about 2013 supply remains.
  • One of the major risks for global grain supply for 2013 was removed this week with the US farmers getting back on track with planting of the corn crop. It is now over 80% planted. The question now turns to how it will yield – which will play out according to the weather over the next 90 or so days. The lower A$ (now under 0.97 versus US$) and continuing dry conditions for most of South-East Australia is keeping local grain markets firm.

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Grain - Hay Report - 16 May 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • Rises in feedgrain prices across Australia this last week of $5-15 were not uncommon.
  • While global grain markets finished the week largely unchanged, the lower A$ and continuing dry conditions for most of our east coast have driven the local grain market higher.
  • The US corn crop planting is running a few weeks late due to wet weather, but may easily recover in the next week with drier conditions allowing farmers back in the field. Despite a few warning signs for the 2013 crop in parts of US, Russia, UK, and of course here in Australia, the USDA last week released its supply and demand forecasts for an all-time record wheat and corn crop. There are still about 100 days to go to see these crops in the bin, but if they do deliver, global grain prices are expected to fall in the second half of 2013.

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Grain - Hay Report - 9 May 2013

International & National Summary - Grain:

  • Grain prices are up across the board in Australia by about $15 per tonne in this last week; only exception was WA where prices were flat but WA had a steep rise a few weeks back. Why the lift in prices?
  • While the northern hemisphere spring is often described as the “silly season” for grain markets due to the volatility of prices depending on what the weather forecasts are for US, EU, Russia and China, there are probably three drivers behind our local market at the moment.

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