Grain – Hay Report – 28 November 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• In a reversal of last week’s market strong international demand for wheat saw some good trades occur from various origins. The recent trade activity was supportive of US prices subsequently lifting US futures values. CBOT December ended the week up 10.25 USc/bu to close on Monday night at 652.50 USc/bu.
• US export sales far exceeded market expectations for the week reporting at 618,000mt for the week. This data was influential in the rise CBOT futures this week. In further supportive news for Australian wheat values, Iraq purchased 50,000mt of Aussie wheat endorsing perception for demand of Australian wheat. Brazil’s presence in the market for the second week running has reverted attention to the Southern Hemisphere supply and demand where Argentina’s production has been downgraded to 9.1Mt.
• A weaker Australian dollar in the last week has strongly aided the support for Australian grain prices throughout the period. The dollar closed 91.59USc down 2.3USc on close Monday. The change has aided Australian domestic prices for wheat and canola A$6.62/t and A$3.89/t respectively.
• While Australian grain values saw support through the combination of improvement in international futures and a fall in the $A it was met by selling from the grower which saw basis weaken. Subsequently Australian prices did not fully reflect the full gains from the movements in the international markets. If growers continue to spread their sales over the harvest period and beyond avoiding all coming to the table at once, then solid price indications exist to support Australian cash values.
• In a positive potential supply development for end users reports are confirming downgrades in cereals due to frost throughout eastern Australia. This grain will most likely bypass the bulk handlers and be stored on farm or delivered directly to the end user market representing solid buying opportunity. The spread to feed barley is probably still at the level where end users prefer barley to alternative AGP1 wheat. Regardless of current price, initial harvest reports indicate there will be feed grade grain available for purchase.
• Feed barley remains cheap when compared relative to other commodities and a popular choice in feed rations at current levels. Expect feed barley values to hold in the short term, as a recent Jordan purchase of feed barley was supportive to current Aussie feed barley price bid to growers. Feed barley represents prominent buying opportunities for end users at the moment compared to wheat.
• As the harvest has now started if not finished in most regions throughout Australia expect day-to-day domestic market volatility to potentially ease. The market now has an accurate indication of national production and can position itself accordingly. There are still significant concerns in relation to sorghum plantings in northern Australia progressing. Dry weather has plantings estimated at 20% in the Darling Downs and Northern NSW at 30% well below traditional figures. With a solid sorghum crop required to alleviate the feed shortage, reduced plantings will severely impact the overall feed balance sheet.
• Conditions across the country have resulted in a significant proportion of feed grade grain being produced, particularly in central and southern NSW and into northern Victoria. Opportunity exists to pick up these parcels at discounts throughout the harvest period.

National Summary – Hay:

• Across the country prices remain fairly steady this week. Trading is generally slow to the key dairy regions in Southern Australia and remaining steady to drier areas in Queensland and NSW. Of all the fodder types Lucerne and protein hay in general (vetch, Lucerne and medic) is in low supply and there is steady demand. It is likely that good quality protein hay will be difficult to source in 2014.

Cereal Hay

• There is limited cereal hay available in Northern NSW and QLD and with the help of freight subsidies some hay is moving north from Southern NSW. Prices remain firm but may ease in the coming weeks if more hay comes onto the market.
• In the Southern market prices continue to fluctuate largely driven by the variable quality of hay available and some growers trying to move their hay in order to get cash flow. There are reports of very low on farm prices being offered, however growers with storage capacity are opting to sit on their hay rather than taking the discounted prices on offer.
• Buyers are advised to be wary of ‘bargains’ particularly when purchasing cereal (and also vetch) hay this year. Be on the lookout for low grade weather damaged hay, and some hay being baled before it is properly cured. AFIA advises anyone purchasing hay to get a feed analysis done, use a trusted supplier or to inspect hay themselves prior to purchase to ensure you know what they are getting.

Lucerne Hay:

• Second cut Lucerne is currently being baled through Central West and Northern NSW. Quality is reported to be high. There is steady demand for this product, particularly from the Northern NSW Coast and Southern Queensland and it is likely to move quickly.

• New season Lucerne hay from northern Victoria and South East South Australia is becoming available in limited quantities and there is steady demand. Growers have faced issues with weather affecting hay on the ground which has slowed production.
• Tasmania has been very wet over the past few weeks slowing Lucerne hay production. There is a lot of enquiry for new season Lucerne hay from dairy farmers but supply is very low.
• Across most regions we expect the supply of protein hay (vetch, medic and Lucerne); particularly high quality hay will be low in 2014.

Silage

• Reports indicate that to date silage production across the country is down this year. Some of the key factors driving this are patchy weather conditions shortening the window for production, lower yields and growers opting to save cash in the short term and relying on purchasing new season hay when required in 2014.
• In Victoria good weather over the past few weeks has helped growers to get on with their silage. Growers in Tasmania haven’t been so fortunate as the wet conditions continue.
• There is increased interest in summer crops for silage this year; maize, forage sorghum and millet.

Pasture/ Clover Hay

• There is a lot of interest in pasture hay production for the coming weeks particularly from dairy farmers trying to re-build their fodder reserves for the coming year.
• There are reports of some good quality balansa clover hay being baled in the Wimmera region at present.

Straw

• Straw production in southern QLD was above average this year and without rain the quality is very good. Feedlots and drought affected station owners are active buyers.
• In most other regions straw production is likely to be average or down on previous years.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

The information in this report is collected and disseminated with due care and attention to its accuracy, but Dairy Australia accepts no liability if, for any reason, the information is inaccurate, incomplete or out of date.

• Mareeba November rainfall: 155mm (Ave: 48mm).
• YTD: 899mm (Ave: 807). This time last year the tablelands had received 878mm.
• Lots of rain across CQ this month to get feed growth going.
• Wheat: $ +0 ($364 to $374) All wheat in CQ was of milling quality. Not prudent to compete with flour millers and exporters for the commodity when they have deeper pockets.
• Barley: $ +3 ($413 to $423). Barley is out of contention at any price above wheat. Downs have has well and truly finished.
• Corn prices $ +0 ($438 to $448). Feed corn prices delivered Tablelands are sitting above wheat as the holders punt there will be a demand for the commodity at some time and old crop shortages support their stance.
• Sorghum: $ -3 ($314 to $324). Rain through CQ this week, which will encourage more sorghum sowing – but not till January.
• There are some summer crops, principally sorghum and feed corn. Rain this week has improved the main CQ sorghum crop which will be sown in Jan/Feb.
• Using grain from winter crops necessarily means paying large road freight costs, when other grains will do. Feed grain is either grown locally and becomes available for purchase for one reason or another. This many include gritting quality corn that is not under contract, or surplus root crops – even though they may need cooking to improve digestibility by cows.

• There has been patchy rain over the past few weeks with good falls recorded through the Tablelands. As a result hay production has stopped.
• Demand has eased a little following the rain however the cattle stations in drought affected Western Queensland are still seeking hay. They have not had the rain as seen on the Tablelands.
• Prices may ease in the coming weeks depending on the ability of growers to make hay and the quality of the hay if it is baled.
• Prices remain firm but steady this week.

• Toowoomba November Rainfall: 59mm (Ave: 83mm).
• YTD: 1018mm (Ave: 647mm), compared to 596mm last year.
• Rain of 10-15mm this past week, and more expected, did no damage to wheat.
• Wheat: $ +10 ($324 to $334). These modest rains will not down grade odd paddocks not yet stripped. All SQ wheat and CQ wheat of this season is of human consumption quality.
• Feed Barley: $ +3 ($312 to $322). Discount to wheat is probably a little more than indicated in the two price ranges. Feedlots buying remains strong as the small downs crop finally stripped and go into storage. Out of paddock buying has finished.
• Corn $ +0 ($367 to $377). Tight old crop supplies and next new season supply from the Downs not expected till March, means holders of the limited old crop can maintain a $40 premium over wheat.
• Sorghum: $ +4 ($289 to $299). Rain this week was not quite heavy enough in most areas to encourage more sorghum sowing.
• No point in waiting any longer for making supply contract for grain through 2013 at least for part of the budgeted tonnage requirement.
• Sorghum looks like the best commodity to forward price, wheat has too many competing bidders with human consumption markets behind them.
• Some corn tonnages could be taken at buyers’ delivery discretion, to cover times when more energy will be required than sorghum can provide. Barely can be useful and is currently cheaper than stored sorghum.

• There are small pockets through the Darling Downs that received good rainfalls in the past few weeks but most of Western and Southern QLD remain dry. Accordingly demand for all fodder types is steady.
• There is limited cereal hay available locally and with the help of freight subsidies some hay is moving north from Southern NSW. Prices remain firm but may ease in the coming weeks if more hay comes onto the market.
• Lucerne production in the Lockyer valley is well underway, supplying the hobby and horse buyers. Bulk Lucerne in Northern and Central West NSW is also underway mainly being shipped into Queensland to meet strong demand.
• Lucerne production in NSW is facing many challenges with unusually cool nights slowing growth, increasing water costs and aphids causing extensive damage in some areas. It is likely that the supply of Lucerne in 2014 will be tight.
• There are reports of increased straw production in southern QLD this year. Thanks to limited rain the quality is very good. Feedlots and drought affected stations are active buyers.

• Lismore November rainfall total: 202mm (Ave: 98mm).
• YTD: 1290mm (Ave: 1101mm), compared to 1095mm this time last year.
• SFW Wheat: $ +8 ($371 to $381). Rain of 10 to 15 millimetres this past week, on darling Downs and more expected, didn’t damage the wheat. It is all in the bin. These modest rains will not down grade even odd paddocks not yet stripped. So all southern and central Qld wheat of this season is of human consumption category – hence expensive
• Feed Barley: $ +3 ($364 to $374). Discount to wheat is probably a little more than indicated in our two price ranges. Feedlot buying remains strong as the small Downs crops are finally stripped and go into storage. Out of paddock buying is now over
• Corn $ +0 ($412 to $422). Small supplies of old crop corn held by a few growers and traders who are punting this stiff premium over human consumption can be achieved – probably from specialty feed mixes including horse feeds and some specific poultry feeds.
• Sorghum: $ +4 ($330 to $340). The main dairy grain for summer feeding based on price. Still old crop stocks in store. A small tonnage of January sorghum is expected
• After this rain there will be summer cropping on the coastal plain. ‘It is in dairy farmers’ interests to follow this closely. Try to identify who has sown sorghum of corn and where. Monitor these crops and make contact with the growers no later than February to display some interest.
• There is sense in buying any local grain that is available to avoid the cost of road transport from southern Queensland or from over the divide at Tamworth or Quirindi. Liverpool Plains areas had heavy enough rains last weekend to encourage more sorghum sowings as soon as paddocks dry out.

• Despite some good rain falls in the past few weeks demand for hay from the dairy industry remains strong driven by limited pasture growth. Some cereal hay and Lucerne has been moving into the region from southern NSW.
• Demand is expected to remain steady for the coming weeks until summer pasture growth takes off and hay prices will start to ease if there is follow up rain.
• The recent rain has improved grower confidence for summer cropping, with strong interest in maize, millet and sorghum for silage.
• There is limited Lucerne hay available and the price has increased considerably but reflects the big variation in quality available. Lucerne hay remains steady and is trading at $300-$500t delivered to Northern NSW.
• There is increased interest in straw production given the firm fodder market at present. New season straw is showing good quality and trading around $140-$150t delivered, beef producers are the most active buyers.

• Forbes November rainfall: 12mm (Ave: 50.1mm).
• YTD: 459mm (Ave: 437mm), compared to 544mm this time last year.
• SFW Wheat: $ +10 ($210 to $220). Wheat prices up as quality of Central west wheat holds up as the harvest progresses. I no quality problems locally, explore taking frosted wheat at discount from the areas of the eastern cropping areas ,or barley locally
• F1 Barley: $ +5 ($202 to $212). Plenty of feed barley for potential use over 2014. Prices more likely to ease over next six months than to firm so perhaps no reason to commit to large priced tonnage through the early 2014 requirements.
• Corn $ +0 ($385 to $395). Tight old crop supplies and next new season supply locally not till March/April. Holders of the limited old crop supply can maintain a $25 premium over wheat. Closest old crop supply Griffith
• Sorghum $ +0 ($323 to $333). Local sorghum crops restricted t irrigation. Not a popular crop locally. Prices set by trucking Gunnedah sorghum south. But local sources, if any, would and should be cheaper.
• Harvest is around one third through, at this time, no problems with any weather – damage to wheat/barley quality. Possibly a reasonable bet that there won’t be – as it will take two or three heavy rain events on ripe grain to stimulate sprouting within the heads of unharvested grain.
• There is frosted wheat and frosted barely east of here, it is cheaper than ASW wheat, which is the main wheat being bought in this region for dairy cows.
• However typically, grain moves from this region east or south to domestic or export grain markets. Moving it the other way, for instance from Cowra or Young to Forbes would require some rearrangements – so light weight what could be a component of local dairy feeds.

• In the past few weeks the season has dried off and trading has picked up. Dairy and feedlots are the most active buyers locally and some hay is moving up to north coast to meet the steady demand from that region.
• Growers have had time to consider their options for frost affected cereal crops and it appears that the amount to be cut for hay is down on initial forecasts. With steady demand continuing from Northern NSW and QLD, hay from frosted crops will contribute toward replenishing fodder supplies for 2014. Quality may be an issue for some frost affected crops that were impacted by rain before baling. Buyers are encouraged to get feed tests before purchasing any new season hay.
• High grade cereal hay is difficult to source and is sought after by the chaff mills and horse market.
• Lucerne production in NSW is facing many challenges with unusually cool nights slowing growth, increasing water costs and aphids causing extensive damage in some areas. It is likely that the supply of Lucerne in 2014 will be tight.
• Second cut of Lucerne is now underway and Lucerne supplies are very low due to the steady demand. This week saw the price for Lucerne increase and is now trading at $300 to $350t delivered locally.
• Straw production appears to be about average for this time of year. Demand for straw is slow at present.

• Bega November rainfall total: 186mm (Ave: 63mm).
• YTD: 672mm (Ave: 585mm), compared to 827mm this time last year.
• SFW Wheat $ +8 ($263 to $273). This increase is generated by stronger export buying of ASW wheat. There is some frosted wheat from areas north of Wagga, including Temora Young and Cowra. Damage is not uniform, and test weights vary, but suggest deliver price should be around $20 a tonne less than the feed wheat price range in our table.
• Feed barley $ +5 ($227 to $237). Wide discount to wheat applies for southern NSW and Victoria. Can be exploited by using more barley over the warmer months and less wheat. Can be done more comfortably where premium quality pastures are providing most of the milk production.
• Triticale $ +10 ($236 to $246). As what quality so far holds well in Victoria and most of the Riverina, barley is tending to relate more as a discount to ASW wheat than a premium to feed barley.
• Oats: $ +0 ($208 to $218). With so much feed now low demand for oats even from graziers on the Monaro.
• Sowing of ryegrass in areas across the Bega Valley, ryegrass has been kept short by constant grazing from stock. With fertiliser these highly productive pastures will now increase in daily growth rates and provide more opportunities for hay making on the hill blocks. Some quality hay has been made already. Opportunities now for best paddocks to do their job producing milk and allowing grain and pellet use to be eased back.

• The season has been fairly dry and there is steady demand for hay, with particular interest in cereal hay.
• Frosted cereals being baled in Southern NSW are creating an opportunity for buyers to replenish their supplies.
• New season cereal hay appears to be of reasonable quality but feed analysis results are showing some variable results. Buyers are advised to ensure they inspect hay and get feed analysis information before making any purchases.
• Silage yields have been down this year due to patchy seasonal conditions. This is likely to increase demand for cereal hay in 2014.
• Lucerne hay prices remain firm but steady this week. With supplies expected to remain tight due to low yields and high water costs the market is not likely to soften in the short term.
• There is some pea hay available which may be a good and slightly cheaper alternative to Lucerne.

• Tatura November Rainfall total: 23mm (Avg: 41mm)
• YTD: 330mm (Ave: 454mm), compared to 484mm this time last year.
• Wheat: $ +3 ($255 to $265). The sustained quality of the wheat so far stripped is encouraging strong buying interest from domestic flour millers and exporters and accumulators in Wimmera putting wheat into bunkers for later bulk export.
• F1 Barley: $ +5 ($206 to $216). Wide margin compared to wheat prices. At this stage barley would appear to be best buy for summer feeding of milking herds. But still time between now and Christmas for wheat to be quality damaged. Most growers finishing canola and just starting on wheat.
• Triticale: $ +10 ($253 to $263), High quality of wheat so far stripped throughout Victoria means less likelihood of weather damaged wheat at depressed prices. Hence triticale prices rising towards wheat level rather than hovering over feed barley prices.
• Feed Oats: $ +0 ($180 to $190). No interest in oats. Plenty of haymaking in dryland areas south and east of Goulburn valley, eg Benalla and Nagambie and Seymour – hence less need for oats for sheep security.
• Halted operations for two days, but nothing serious. Quality of wheat and barley is very good including good test weights. Crops not yielding as well as growers had hoped, but quality is a plus for them and negative for dairy farmers, as they will have to compete with human consumption wheat buyers.
• Nevertheless Wimmera 3yield is deemed satisfactory, given they have only have ten inches since sowing and nothing before that. Many barley growers chose to dry sow. When it did rain, cereal wheat plants germinated and grew with the barely. On delivery, many Wimmera barley sample have been downgraded tom feed from malting grade because of too many wheat kernels.
• These particular samples would make good buying for dairy farmers at the going feed barley price, but with extra energy due to the co-mingling.

• With the hay season well underway feed analysis results are indicating that there is a big variation in the quality of hay this year. In particular sourcing high grade cereal hay may be difficult.
• Some growers who are not equipped to store their hay are turning it onto the market at low prices which may present an opportunity for astute buyers to pick up cereal hay now. Be mindful of quality, particularly of cheaper hay. We encourage buyers to inspect and get feed analysis for all fodder transactions as there is some variation in the quality of new season cereal hay this year.
• Pasture silage production was down this year but there appears to be increased interest in summer crops; maize, sorghum and millet for silage early next year.
• Trading is fairly slow at present and prices remain unchanged this week.

• Sale November rainfall: 35.4mm (Ave: 64mm).
• YTD: 537mm (Ave: 544mm), compared to 589mm this time last year.
• General rains received this week across the region.
• SFW Wheat: $ +8 ($314 to $324) Wheat quality has been sustained as the harvest has progressed encouraging strong domestic demand from flour millers and exporters. Trading companies are accumulating much of the wheat harvest coming in for their export programs.
• Barley: $ +5 ($256 to $266). The discount to wheat is out to $50 a tonne proving a more prudent purchase for feed grain amongst dairy farmers.
• Triticale: $ +10 ($298 to $308). Triticale harvest won’t start until late December. Wheat being harvested thus far is all of high quality subsequently increasing Triticale prices along with it.
• Feed Oats: $ +0 ($208 to $218). Currently no interest in buying feed oats at this point in time.
• Summer crops are beginning to be planted as an ease in wet weather is allowing tractors to return to the paddocks.
• Barley is cheaper and with warmer weather coming energy for cows is not quite as critical.
• Some scope from dairy farmers to reduce reliance on grain and pellets for feed as pastures mature.

• Despite patchy weather conditions slowing the silage season across Gippsland, production is now well underway and there are reports of good quality and yields.
• The hay harvest should commence in the coming weeks and looks promising. With plenty of moisture in the ground good growth is expected as the temperatures warm up.
• Trading is generally slow as local buyers concentrate on their own fodder conservation program.
• New season cereal hay prices are fluctuating as demand is slow. There looks like being good reserves of lower grade cereal hay in 2014 however high grade hay may be difficult to source.
• New season cereal and vetch hay is of variable quality and buyers are well advised to use their trusted hay supplier and ensure they inspect hay and get a feed analysis before purchasing any hay this year.

• Port Fairy November rainfall: 60.2 (Ave: 48.2mm).
• YTD: 912mm (Ave: 666.5mm), compared to 701mm this time last year.
• A weather change coming through this week brought 15 to 40mm of rain throughout the area.
• SFW1 Wheat: $ +1 ($256 to $266). Canola crops are windrowed with wheat still a period away from being harvested. Moisture still a significant issue with only a couple of hours each day suitable for harvesting.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($207 to $217). The large margin to wheat means Barley is the grain of choice for summer use on diary farms. Western District barley is still 2-3 weeks away from being harvested.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($245 to $255). Mallee triticale could be stripped any time mid/late November. High quality wheat being harvested is bringing the price of triticale up at the moment.
• Feed oats $ +0 ($188 to $198). Lots of hay being bailed and its ready availability is acting as a substitute for oats and reducing any demand for the commodity at all.
• Cool conditions in early November reduced pasture growth and the quality of hay.
• Hay cut early still produced some really high quality silage.

• Trading has slowed as local buyers are concentrating on conserving their own hay and silage as well as limiting cash flow.
• With some variable quality new season hay becoming available it is timely to remind buyers to inspect hay and get a feed test prior to purchase to ensure they understand what they are getting.
• Better quality cereal hay is being delivered to South West Victoria for between $170-$200t remaining steady over the past few weeks
• Interest in vetch hay has slowed over the past month and it now remains steady at $240-$260t delivered.
• There are reports of good quality balansa clover hay being made through the Wimmera at present and as this hay comes onto the market prices should start around $220-$240t delivered.

• Mount Gambier November rainfall: 48mm (Ave: 46.8mm).
• YTD: 778mm (Ave: 671mm), compared to 625mm this time last year.
• No rain to speak of this week in southeast grain areas making for a good harvesting period.
• Wheat $ +10 ($270 to $280) Wheat quality is holding as the harvest continues. Exporters are experiencing a competitive advantage out of South Australia compared to Victoria.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($236 to $246). While the discount to wheat is less than other southern diary areas it still represents a good buying opportunity for summer cow feeding.
• Triticale $ +10 ($240 to $250). The triticale price is rising to meet the wheat that is being harvested which is predominately high quality.
• Oat prices $ +10 ($180 to $190) Little to no interest as feed for milking dairy cows.
• Probably too early to buy large quantities of grain for 2014 delivery. May be worth waiting to see if damaged frosted grain hits the market at discount later in the harvest period.

• Patchy weather conditions have slowed fodder production in South East South Australia and reduced the quality of some silage and hay. With the weather becoming finer over the past week baling has recommenced.
• The supply of lucerne hay is low and the market for lucerne seed remains firm which may influence growers to favour seed production over hay for a more stable return. This will mean a continuing tight market for protein hay in 2014.
• Prices are speculative for new season hay and remain unchanged this week as there is limited trading.

• Murray Bridge November rainfall: 4mm (Ave: 25.3mm).
• YTD: 325.7mm (Ave: 321mm). 408mm this time last year.
• Little to no rain this week with Murray Bridge receiving 3mm.
• Wheat $ +8 ($244 to $254). Wheat quality is holding as the harvest is progressing. Exporters are seeing advantages of accumulating in South Australia ahead of Victoria. Domestic demand is having less of an impact as the focus is on export.
• Feed barley $ -2 ($210 to $220). The discount to wheat is less than that of other southern areas but is still priced well for summer use on milking cows.
• Triticale $ +10 ($265 to $275). Still too early for triticale to come into buying mix just yet.
• Feed oats $ +0 ($178 to $188). Seems the early oats that have come off are off export quality. No real interest from dairy farmers as silage is a cheaper alternative.
• Based on current prices dairy farmers will be feeding barely to cows over the summer and autumn period.
• Silage making is proving slow progress in the area.

• Baling cereal hay is largely completed for 2014 and despite some frustrations with the weather growers are reporting good colour but variable quality in their cereal hay. Yields were above average this year.
• Despite a lack of carry-over from 2012/2013 the big yielding 2013 cereal hay harvest looks set to replenish empty stores locally.
• Supply of protein (medic and vetch) hay is less consistent after weather events at baling caused a lot of trouble for growers, resulting in reduced yields and quality.
• There appears to be interest in cutting straw this year which will commence in the coming weeks. If the quality is good demand will be steady from the domestic and export markets.
• Trading is slow and prices remain steady this week.

• Bunbury November rainfall: 0.8mm (Ave: 26.7mm).
• YTD 799mm (Ave: 712mm), compared to 642.6mm this time last year.
• Scattered rain throughout the area with Busselton receiving 10mm but nothing for Bunbury and Harvey.
• Wheat: $ +5 ($315 to $325). WA harvest continues to go from strength to strength as wheat quality remains high.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($270 to $280). Despite Barley prices coming up this week the discount to wheat is still attractive. At these extensive discounts it may be worth locking away grain for later delivery in the year.
• Triticale $ +5 ($275 to $285). As growers are beginning to look at harvesting the incoming crop triticale is seeing some interest from potential buyers. As wheat quality continues to be of high quality Triticale is chasing the subsequent price up.
• Oats -10 ($190 to $200). Any feed grade oats are attracting limited demand. Anything not meeting milling standards is being stored on farm.
• Many dairy operations are planning for extensive use of barley as a feed grain throughout the 2014 period. The current discount to wheat makes it an attractive commodity to incorporate into feed rations.
• Much of the feed is going off now but irrigation areas will be able to accommodate for this.

• The baling season is drawing to a close in WA.
• Quality is varied this year for cereal hay, a result of high yields and unfavourable weather conditions.
• It’s estimated that yields for pasture hay and silage this year are down about 30% on previous years, following a wet start to spring and a short baling window.
• With temperatures now cooling off again in the South West farmers are starting to feed silage already, much earlier than usual. This is likely to drive be an increase in demand for purchased hay next year.
• Hay trading on the domestic market is slow at present particularly for cereal hay. Some pasture hay is trading and price increased about $30 this week a result of increased interest from buyers.

• Smithton November rainfall: 135mm (Ave: 56.9mm).
• YTD: 1044mm (Ave: 834mm), compared to 837.8mm this time last year.
• Spring rain continues with the region getting anywhere between 30-50mm of rain.
• Wheat $+0 ($330 to $340). Much of the wheat being imported to the main island is still old season grain. At discount to freshly harvested wheat it makes for cheaper buying for local dairy farmers.
• Feed barley $ +5 ($300 to $310). Barley is beginning to roll of the header in significant volume as the harvest kicks into gear in the southern states. Feed barley may not be sold off the header initially as the growers instead look to offload higher grades and take advantage of the current premiums.
• Triticale prices $ -5 ($328 to $338). No new season triticale trading as of yet but expect this to change in the next two weeks. Growers are looking to harvest this shortly in the southern states.
• Oats prices $ +0 ($263 to $273). No place for oats in current feed rations.
• These continuing rainfalls are allowing dryland dairy farmers to sow summer fodder crops.
• Good conditions for pasture growth and utilization.

• Demand for fodder remains steady and supply is low. Buyers are actively making enquiries now to secure fodder when it becomes available. There is particular interest in securing cereal hay.
• Silage production continues to be hampered by rainfall events. While the rain may help to bulk up crops and result in bigger yields, quality is likely to be down. The narrow gap for silage may see growers looking to make more hay.
• Some cereal hay has been cut, however recent rain has caused to significant damage reducing the quality of this hay.
• Early projections are that supply will be low again in 2014 with demand for fodder from the dairy and beef sectors set to remain steady and unfavourable weather conditions shortening the window for fodder production.
• Prices are speculative and due to limited trading remain unchanged this week.