Grain – Hay Report – 6 December 2013

6 Dec 2013 | Hay Reports

International & National Summary – Grain:

  • International wheat values dropped slightly for the week as the traditional Southern Hemisphere harvest lows take place. CBOT December futures ended the week down 2.75 USc/bu to close on Monday night at 649.75 USc/bu.
  • Although the southern hemisphere harvest is not home yet, an accurate portrayal of yields and national production figures are being depicted. The next focus for international markets is the northern hemisphere spring. Freeze conditions are on their way and it remains uncertain if the crop can get some snow cover before the freeze sets in. If adequate snow cover is not received, significant yield and quality ramifications will be experienced.
  • An additional defining factor in price direction this year will be the South American balance sheet. With Argentina the biggest wheat supplier in the region questions remain over their crop size. Current USDA estimates have Argentina’s wheat estimates at 11Mt but more recent figures range between 8.5-9Mt. With Brazil a net importer they will be required to source from alternative areas, which may well be supportive to international grain values.
  • The falling Australian dollar has supported Australian grain values this week. The dollar closed at 90.93 USc down .65 USc on close Monday. The change in currency has undoubtedly offset any downside experienced in the CBOT market.
  • Coupled with a weaker Australian dollar strong export demand supported grain values domestically. In order to fulfil early shipping commitments buyers are engaging with growers encouraging sales. Relative to international values domestic prices continue to hold and with good underlying support it is expected to continue.
  • The feed balance sheet in the northern states continues to be destined for an extremely tight finish. Despite some rain in the northern areas of Queensland allowing planting to get underway, there remains significant concern on whether this will drastically affect the expected tight end stocks. We expect prices in northern Australia to remain supported. Demand for feed grain will remain competitive; expect to pay premiums to lock away key quantities.
  • There remains potential to pick up frosted grain at a discount in southern regions of Australia. Upon harvest commencing the quantity of damaged grain was higher than initially expected. This grain is bypassing the bulk handlers and being stored within private storage. Buying opportunities at a discount to current prices for early delivery next year may exist in this market.
  • Feed barley remains cheap when compared relative to other commodities and a popular choice in feed rations at current levels. Internationally feed values are being weighted lower by an abundant supply of US corn on the market. Comparable to wheat and malt barley current prices are supportive for purchasing. It remains the feed grain of choice for end users when prices at current levels.

National Summary – Hay:

  • With trade remaining fairly steady this week there has been little movement in price. The most notable event over the past week is rain in Southern Australia which is continuing to interrupt hay making and may impact on farm hay supplies in some key dairy regions.

Northern Australia

  • Rain through parts of Northern Australia will assist growers by boosting summer pasture growth. However demand for hay hasn’t started to ease just yet.
  • There is limited cereal hay available in Northern NSW and QLD and with the help of freight subsidies some hay is moving north from Southern NSW and Northern Victoria. Prices remain firm but may ease in the coming weeks.
  • Second cut Lucerne is currently being baled through Central West and Northern NSW. Quality is reported to be high. There is steady demand for this product, particularly from the Northern NSW Coast and Southern Queensland and it is likely to move quickly.

Southern Australia

  • In the Southern market prices have remained fairly steady this week with limited trading reported.
  • Some growers are trying to move their cereal hay in order to get cash flow and there are reports of very low on farm prices being offered. Growers with storage capacity are opting to sit on their hay rather than taking the discounted prices on offer now.
  • Buyers are advised to be wary of ‘bargains’ particularly when purchasing cereal (and also vetch) hay this year. Be on the lookout for low grade weather damaged hay, and some hay being baled before it is properly cured. AFIA advises anyone purchasing hay to get a feed analysis done, use a trusted supplier or to inspect hay themselves prior to purchase to ensure you know what they are getting.
  • In the key dairying regions temperatures have dropped and rain is interrupting pasture hay production. With a lot of pasture/ clover hay on the ground as this latest weather event moves through, there is likely to be some issues with quality.
  • Second cut Lucerne is becoming available in Northern Victoria and the quality is good. Lucerne in South Australia has faced challenges caused by the weather slowing production and impacting quality. Tasmania has also had trouble trying to bale lucerne hay due to the weather.
  • Reports indicate that silage production across the country is down this year. Some of the key factors driving this are patchy weather conditions shortening the window for production, lower yields and growers opting to save cash in the short term and relying on purchasing new season hay when required in 2014.

Western Australia

  • The cereal hay season is now completed with big yields and good colour reported. Quality is variable.
  • Rain has impacted the quality of silage and pasture hay and as a result some growers have opted not to bother with fodder conservation. Production is down as a result.
  • Straw is being baled at present and conditions have been favourable. Good quality and yields are reported.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

The information in this report is collected and disseminated with due care and attention to its accuracy, but Dairy Australia accepts no liability if, for any reason, the information is inaccurate, incomplete or out of date.

6 December 2013

Grain

Wheat

Barley

Maize

Sorghum

Atherton Tableland

Price Range

$369

$379

$417

$427

$438

$448

$314

$324
 

Change

$5

$4

$0

$0
           

Darling Downs

Price Range

$328

$338

$316

$326

$367

$377

$289

$299
 

Change

$4

$4

$0

$0
           

North Coast of NSW

Price Range

$375

$385

$366

$376

$412

$422

$330

$340
 

Change

$4

$2

$0

$0
           

Central West NSW

Price Range

$215

$225

$197

$207

$385

$395

$318

$328
 

Change

$5

-$5

$0

-$5
           
   

Wheat

Barley

Triticale

Oats

Bega Valley

Price Range

$260

$270

$222

$232

$241

$251

$208

$218
 

Change

-$3

-$5

$5

$0
           

Goulburn / Murray Valley

Price Range

$255

$265

$201

$211

$253

$263

$185

$195
 

Change

$0

-$5

$0

$5
           

Gippsland

Price Range

$314

$324

$251

$261

$298

$308

$213

$223
 

Change

$0

-$5

$0

$5
           

South West Victoria

Price Range

$255

$265

$202

$212

$250

$260

$193

$203
 

Change

$0

-$5

$5

$5
           

South East South Australia

Price Range

$270

$280

$233

$243

$245

$255

$185

$195
 

Change

$0

-$3

$5

$5
           

Central Districts of SA

Price Range

$244

$254

$210

$220

$225

$235

$178

$188
 

Change

$0

$0

$0

$0
           

South West of WA

Price Range

$315

$325

$270

$280

$275

$285

$190

$200
 

Change

$0

$0

$0

$0
           

Tasmania

Price Range

$330

$340

$295

$305

$323

$333

$268

$278
 

Change

$0

-$5

-$5

$5

6 December 2013

Hay

Cereal

Lucerne

Straw

Pasture

Atherton Tablelands

Price Range

N/A

  

N/A

  

N/A

  

$265

$285
 

Change

      

Steady
                   

Darling Downs

Price Range

$250

$300

$280

$350

$160

$180

–

–
 

Change

Steady

Steady

  

N/A
                   

North Coast NSW

Price Range

$280

$350

$300

$500

$140

$150

$180

$250
 

Change

Steady

Steady

Steady

Steady
                   

Central West NSW

Price Range

$200

$230

$300

$350

–

–

$145

$155
 

Change

Steady

Steady

N/A

Steady
                   

Bega Valley

Price Range

$240

$280

$300

$350

$180

$200

$160

$180
 

Change

Steady

Steady

Steady

Steady

Goulburn / Murray Valley

Price Range

$140

$180

$220

$260

–

–

$150

$200
 

Change

Steady

Steady

N/A

Steady
                   

Gippsland

Price Range

$200

$250

$260

$300

–

–

$180

$230
 

Change

Steady

Steady

N/A

Steady
                   

South West Victoria

Price Range

$180

$200

$230

$260

–

–

$180

$230
 

Change

Steady

Steady

N/A

Steady
                   

South East South Australia

Price Range

$180

$200

$230

$260

–

–

$180

$200
 

Change

Steady

Steady

N/A

Steady
                   

Central Districts SA

Price Range

$140

$180

$200

$250

$120

$130

–

–
 

Change

Steady

Steady

N/A

N/A
                   

South West WA

Price Range

$110

$200

–

–

$90

$120

$140

$160
 

Change

Steady

N/A

Steady

Steady
                   

North West Tasmania

Price Range

$205

$225

$280

$320

$135

$145

–

–
 

Change

Steady

Steady

Steady

N/A

 

1. Atherton Tableland – Grain Commentary

Back to Grain Table
  • Mareeba December rainfall: 0.4mm (Ave: 102mm).
  • YTD: 900mm (Ave: 909). This time last year the tablelands had received 879mm.
  • Wheat: $ +5 ($369 to $379). Markets for low-grade wheat are steady down the east coast and across to WA. This wheat market is up because the demand is for higher protein wheats and most of the wheat within CQ, which is being bought for stock feed, is of higher than 10 per cent protein.
  • Barley: $ +4 ($417 to $427). Barley is out of contention at any price above that of wheat. Downs barley harvest has finished, minimal new season crop in CQ.
  • Corn prices $ +0 ($438 to $448). Pricing based on feed corn trucked north from CQ. It’s too expensive against wheat from the same region, even though wheat is all of human consumption.
  • Sorghum: $ +0 ($314 to $324). No rain in CQ this week, but too early for main sorghum sowing yet for this cropping region. Supplies coming out of CQ are old crop sorghum, mainly held in warehousing.
  • QLD’s October milk production was down 8.7% on October 2012 production.
  • There are many clusters of dairy farms within QLD apart from this region and the major region centred on Moreton, the Lockyer valley and the eastern Darling Downs. Many of these outlying clusters at Biggenden, Monto and Rockhampton did not get any rain from February through to November. Hence Oct was at the end of a long and extended winter drought.
  • Dry land feed disappeared and had to be replaced with expensive hay and grain supplements. Similar conditions apply to the beef industry, but supplements more limited – cottonseed and molasses. Sorghum from CQ seems to be the easiest commodity to secure.

1. Atherton Tableland – Hay Commentary

Back to Hay Table
  • There has been patchy rain over the past few weeks with good falls recorded through the Tablelands. As a result hay production has stopped.
  • Demand has eased a little following the rain however the cattle stations in drought affected Western Queensland are still seeking hay. They have not had the rain as seen on the Tablelands.
  • Prices may ease in the coming weeks depending on the ability of growers to make hay and the quality of the hay if it is baled.
  • Prices remain firm but steady this week.

2. Darling Downs – Grain Commentary

Back to Grain Table
  • Toowoomba December Rainfall: 2mm (Ave: 110mm).
  • YTD: 1041mm (Ave: 757mm), compared to 610mm last year.
  • Wheat: $ +4 ($328 to $338). Prices are up in exporter bids for premium protein wheat. This includes most of the wheat from the recent southern Queensland harvest. Sorghum appears a cheaper cow feed for the summer months.
  • Feed Barley: $ +4 ($316 to $326). Good supplies of barley still. But now bedded down in trader or grower silos. Therefore not necessarily selling now. Silos will be emptied by mid January for next sorghum harvest.
  • Corn $ +0 ($367 to $377). Tight old crop supplies and next new season supply from the Downs not expected until March. Holders hoping for a price spike for them over this period
  • Sorghum: $ +0 ($289 to $299). Old crop sorghum supplies from both GrainCorp and private storages on the Downs.
  • Over the past two weeks of rainfall there has been around 30-60mm across most parts of the Downs. This has been enough to get growers sowing sorghum and now they will be busy with seed rigs for the next two weeks.
  • QLD’s Oct milk production was down 8.7% on Oct 2012 production.

2. Darling Downs – Hay Commentary

Back to Hay Table
  • There are small pockets through the Darling Downs that received good rainfalls in the past few weeks but most of Western and Southern QLD remain dry. Accordingly demand for all fodder types is steady.
  • There is limited cereal hay available locally and with the help of freight subsidies some hay is moving north from Southern NSW. Prices remain firm but may ease in the coming weeks if more hay comes onto the market.
  • Lucerne production in the Lockyer valley is well underway, supplying the hobby and horse buyers. Bulk Lucerne in Northern and Central West NSW is also underway mainly being shipped into Queensland to meet strong demand.
  • Lucerne production in NSW is facing many challenges with unusually cool nights slowing growth, increasing water costs and aphids causing extensive damage in some areas. It is likely that the supply of Lucerne in 2014 will be tight.
  • There are reports of increased straw production in southern QLD this year. Thanks to limited rain the quality is very good. Feedlots and drought affected stations are active buyers.

3. North Coast NSW – Grain Commentary

Back to Grain Table
  • Lismore December rainfall total: 4mm (Ave: 137mm).
  • YTD: 1326mm (Ave: 1238mm), compared to 1120mm this time last year.
  • SFW Wheat: $ +4 ($375 to $385). Wheat from southern Queensland and northern NSW is all of high quality for human consumption purposes. Best to try and avoid bidding against exporters for wheat this year, unless late harvest rains have done some damage to Liverpool Plains wheat quality
  • Feed Barley: $ +2 ($366 to $376). Barley is cheaper than wheat but not yet discounted enough to encourage its use ahead of old crop sorghum
  • Corn $ +0 ($412 to $422). Feed corn prices sit above the feed grains market in the knowledge there are limited old crop stocks available between Riverina and Atherton tablelands. Next corn harvest at Christmas on Atherton Tablelands.
  • Sorghum: $ +0 ($330 to $340). Prices are based on trucking Downs old crop sorghum south. This is the cheapest option of any of the Downs options. Sorghum currently being sown on Downs and Liverpool Plains for January and February harvests respectively.
  • A lot of rain has fallen over the past two weeks across the north coast of NSW. Totals are in excess of 90mm, This will be followed by considerable dryland and irrigated summer cropping.
  • Crops with highest gross margins are soybeans and mung beans, which have direct human consumption applications, but less demanding crops such as corn/maize, sorghum and millets will also be sown. There are potentially good feed grains for coastal dairy cows.
  • Their special advantage is they wont carry large road freight costs and this is important in keeping feed costs down.

3. North Coast NSW – Hay Commentary

Back to Hay Table
  • Despite some good rain falls in the past few weeks demand for hay from the dairy industry remains strong driven by limited pasture growth. Some cereal hay and Lucerne has been moving into the region from southern NSW.
  • Demand is expected to remain steady for the coming weeks until summer pasture growth takes off and hay prices will start to ease if there is follow up rain.
  • The recent rain has improved grower confidence for summer cropping, with strong interest in maize, millet and sorghum for silage.
  • There is limited Lucerne hay available and the price has increased considerably but reflects the big variation in quality available. Lucerne hay remains steady and is trading at $300-$500t delivered to Northern NSW.
  • There is increased interest in straw production given the firm fodder market at present. New season straw is showing good quality and trading around $140-$150t delivered, beef producers are the most active buyers.

4. Central West NSW – Grain Commentary

Back to Grain Table
  • Forbes December rainfall: 16mm (Ave: 58mm).
  • YTD: 477mm (Ave: 495mm), compared to 547mm this time last year.
  • SFW Wheat: $ +5 ($215 to $225). This price rise seems to stem from strong buying by Chinese interests for wheat of all descriptions to be packed in shipping containers and shipped out of Sydney. They are outbidding other buyers at present – packing done west of the Divide.
  • F1 Barley: $ -5 ($197 to $207). Feed barely prices are now slotting nicely into the traditional discount to feed wheat. But this year a wide range of bin grades are now trading at equal values. Hence the trade comment wheat is wheat and below 10.5% protein prices are equal for all grades – or APW what is being delivered to fill 70/10 quality domestic contracts.
  • Corn $ +0 ($385 to $395). Priced too high for current use in feed rations – either home mixes or commercial pellets. Supplies are tight in all areas north of the Riverina so holders are hoping for a price spike pre Christmas.
  • Sorghum $ -5 ($318 to $328). Sufficient rain has now fallen in the past two weeks for a large sorghum sowing to take place over the coming fortnight in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Local sorghum in late summer should be cheaper than this price range based on old crop in storage north of Gunnedah.
  • Yields across the Riverina and the Central west aren’t quite up to expectations. Canola is finished and attention has been on wheat or barley for a while. Good quality is holding for the time, with some rains across the Riverina this week the chance for some downgraded wheat is higher.
  • Inland/Central milk production for the month of Oct was down 2.5% compared to Oct 2013. This was actually the second best result of the main dairy regions of Australia.
  • Barley seems to be the preferred grain for dairy use for summer and autumn, could book tonnes now or wait, hoping for wider spread between wheat and barley prices over the next three weeks.

4. Central West NSW – Hay Commentary

Back to Hay Table
  • In the past few weeks the season has dried off and trading has picked up. Dairy and feedlots are the most active buyers locally and some hay is moving up to north coast to meet the steady demand from that region.
  • Growers have had time to consider their options for frost affected cereal crops and it appears that the amount to be cut for hay is down on initial forecasts. With steady demand continuing from Northern NSW and QLD, hay from frosted crops will contribute toward replenishing fodder supplies for 2014. Quality may be an issue for some frost affected crops that were impacted by rain before baling. Buyers are encouraged to get feed tests before purchasing any new season hay.
  • High grade cereal hay is difficult to source and is sought after by the chaff mills and horse market.
  • Lucerne production in NSW is facing many challenges with unusually cool nights slowing growth, increasing water costs and aphids causing extensive damage in some areas. It is likely that the supply of Lucerne in 2014 will be tight.
  • Second cut of Lucerne is now underway and Lucerne supplies are very low due to the steady demand. This week saw the price for Lucerne increase and is now trading at $300 to $350t delivered locally.
  • Straw production appears to be about average for this time of year. Demand for straw is slow at present.

5. Bega Valley – Grain Commentary

Back to Grain Table
  • Bega December rainfall total: 18mm (Ave: 59mm).
  • YTD: 695mm (Ave: 644mm), compared to 829mm this time last year.
  • SFW Wheat $ -3 ($260 to $270). Wheat is expensive against other grains. It and malting barley are currently in strong demand for container packing and export through the ports of Melbourne and Sydney. This demand may terminate when sufficient tonnage has been accumulated
  • Feed barley $ -5 ($222 to $232). At current prices barley is the way to go for summer and autumn feeding of cows. Tonnages for the next six months could perhaps be locked in now for barley.
  • Triticale $ +5 ($241 to $246). The market for triticale is becoming a little more complicated this year. High wheat quality is supporting triticale prices. This year has seen some issues with contamination of barley in wheat samples and wheat in barley samples, segregation of two new grades have been accommodated bulk handlers.
  • Oats: $ +0 ($208 to $218). Interest from Monaro graziers for rebuilding sheep security stocks – but they are mainly trying to buy old grain cheaply than new season grain – which won’t be stripped just yet.
  • The heavy Wednesday rains for eastern Victoria missed this region. October milk production for southern areas was down 4.5 per cent on the previous October. Too early for triticale harvest yet in northwest Victoria and southeast NSW.
  • But if high wheat quality continues through Victorian areas east of Bendigo, and through the Riverina of NSW, triticale or mixed wheat and barley grades may become important wheat substitutes through 2014.
  • Currently most wheat grades are trading at equal value because they all have some scope in human consumption blends.

5. Bega Valley – Hay Commentary

Back to Hay Table
  • New season cereal hay appears to be of reasonable quality but feed analysis results are showing some variable results. Buyers are advised to ensure they inspect hay and get feed analysis information before making any purchases.
  • Silage yields have been down this year due to patchy seasonal conditions. This is likely to increase demand for cereal hay in 2014.
  • Second cut lucerne from the Central West is now becoming available; however the conditions have been patchy and hay quality may be affected. Supplies are likely to remain tight as there is steady demand for Lucerne from Northern NSW at present.
  • There is some pea hay available which may be a good and slightly cheaper alternative to Lucerne.

6. Goulburn / Murray Valley – Grain Commentary

Back to Grain Table
  • Tatura December Rainfall total: 30mm (Avg: 34mm)
  • YTD: 361mm (Ave: 488mm), compared to 485mm this time last year.
  • Wheat: $ +0 ($255 to $265). Victorian wheat harvest very slow to gather pace. As harvest progresses it is clear there has been more frost damage to crops in the northeast than the growers anticipated. We are now in December and no wet weather on ripe wheat crops. It usually takes two or three heavy rains to sprout wheat in the ear. So large tonnages of weather-damaged wheat is unlikely.
  • F1 Barley: $ -5 ($201 to $211). Export feed grain markets have slipped over the past month. Nothing serious from a growers’ perspective. But the $55 a tonne discount to wheat that has endured since September may be worth locking in for summer and autumn use, with milking cows.
  • Triticale: $ +0 ($253 to $263). Still too early for new crop stripping in the northeast But not too early for growers to enquire what their options are when they do start stripping this commodity.
  • Feed Oats: $ +5 ($185 to $195). Some interest now in feed oats but of better weights, as produced around and east of Nagambie. Not specifically for hoses, as racehorse oats are heavier again, just general livestock security stocks.
  • Canola stripping from windrowed crops was the first priority for growers and the canola harvest is well advanced in the Nth East. Chances of lower priced wheat due to weather damage are diminishing. The premium for higher protein wheats, for milling and export is increasing.
  • Government decision to disallow full take over of GrainCorp by US company ADM, will have minimal impacts for dairy grains in Victoria s by and large the market channels from grain farms in the north west to dairy farms in the east and south, do not go by rail nor through the central handling system owned by GrainCorp.

6. Goulburn / Murray Valley – Hay Commentary

Back to Hay Table
  • With the hay season well underway feed analysis results are indicating that there is a big variation in the quality of hay this year. In particular sourcing high grade cereal hay may be difficult.
  • Some growers who are not equipped to store their hay are turning it onto the market now at low prices which may present an opportunity for astute buyers. Be mindful of quality, particularly for cheaper hay. We encourage buyers to inspect and get feed analysis for all fodder transactions as there is some variation in the quality of new season cereal hay this year.
  • With second cut Lucerne becoming available there has been a slight increase in trade, prices remain steady this week $220 – $260t delivered locally depending on quality.
  • Pasture silage production was down this year but there appears to be increased interest in summer crops; maize, sorghum and millet for silage early next year.
  • Early indications are that straw production is likely to be average or down on average this year.
  • Trading is fairly slow at present and prices remain unchanged this week.

7. Gippsland – Grain Commentary

Back to Grain Table
  • Sale December rainfall: 15mm (Ave: 54mm).
  • YTD: 552mm (Ave: 597mm), compared to 598mm this time last year.
  • Small rains early this week may have stalled harvest but it was only minimal.
  • SFW Wheat: $ +0 ($314 to $324) Large majority of wheat stripped is of human consumption thus far.
  • Barley: $ -5 ($251 to $261). At current discounts to lower wheat grades it represents a major buying opportunity for Australian dairy farmers. If barley is appealing to current feed rotations there is potential to take advantage of current price margins.
  • Triticale: $ +0 ($298 to $308). Triticale harvest won’t start until late December. Wheat being harvested thus far is all of high quality subsequently increasing Triticale prices along with it.
  • Feed Oats: $ +5 ($213 to $223). Buyer interest is arriving for feed quality oats of good weight. Oats from Wimmera and the north look really good at this early stage in the harvest.
  • Gippsland October milk production was down 3.9 per cent on October 2012 litres.
  • Some scope from dairy farmers to reduce reliance on grain and pellets for feed as pastures mature.

7. Gippsland – Hay Commentary

Back to Hay Table
  • Trading is slow at present as growers concentrate on conserving their own hay and silage.
  • Pasture hay has commenced but the patchy weather conditions have slowed baling and will impact quality.
  • New season cereal hay prices are fluctuating and demand is slow. There looks like being good reserves of lower grade cereal hay in 2014 however high grade hay may be difficult to source.
  • New season cereal and vetch hay is of variable quality and buyers are well advised to use their trusted hay supplier and ensure they inspect hay and get a feed analysis before purchasing any hay this year.

8. South West Vic – Grain Commentary

Back to Grain Table
  • Port Fairy December rainfall: 7.2mm (Ave: 47.8mm).
  • YTD: 919mm (Ave: 714mm), compared to 720mm this time last year.
  • Small rains throughout the region with 4-6mm received.
  • SFW1 Wheat: $ +0 ($256 to $266). Initial reports are that crops are not performing as well as expected. Issues concerning weed control have been partially to blame combined with the less than ideal finish in a number of areas.
  • Feed Barley: $ -5 ($202 to $212). The $53 discount to wheat makes feed barley an attractive commodity currently.
  • Triticale prices $ +5 ($250 to $260). Because of wheat, prices are holding firm. It has similar properties to wheat but would require to be priced at a larger discount than current margins.
  • Feed oats $ +5 ($193 to $203). Heavier weighted oats harvested are attracting interest but the market remains fairly small.
  • Grain harvest is just kicking off limited to Canola at this early stage.
  • October milk production was down an enormous 7.4 per cent on October 2012.

8. South West Vic – Hay Commentary

Back to Hay Table
  • Trading has slowed as local buyers are concentrating on conserving their own hay and silage as well as limiting cash flow.
  • Some fine weather last week saw pasture hay commence locally, however rain will slow production for the coming few days and will impact quality.
  • Better quality cereal hay is being delivered to South West Victoria for between $170-$200t remaining steady over the past few weeks.
  • Interest in vetch hay has slowed over the past month prices remain steady at $240-$260t delivered.

9. South East SA – Grain Commentary

Back to Grain Table
  • Mount Gambier December rainfall: 7.6mm (Ave: 38.7mm).
  • YTD: 785mm (Ave: 710mm), compared to 629mm this time last year.
  • Scattered showers and thunderstorms experienced early in the week with varying falls.
  • Wheat $ +0 ($270 to $280) At a $37 a tonne premium to barley it encourages the use of barley in the stock feeds.
  • Feed barley $ -3 ($233 to $243). While the discount to wheat is less than other southern diary areas it still represents a good buying opportunity for summer cow feeding.
  • Triticale $ +5 ($245 to $255). Triticale is complicated by high supplies of feed barley because of lower receivals of malting barley.
  • Oat prices $ +5 ($185 to $195 It remains early for interest in new season oats from cropping areas closer to this dairy region.
  • The harvest will be held up until the weekend with thunderstorms going through the area early this week. Not enough rain to warrant grain sprouting but will delay progression in the short term.

9. South East SA – Hay Commentary

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  • Patchy weather conditions have slowed fodder production in South East South Australia and reduced the quality of some silage and hay. With the weather becoming finer over the past week baling has recommenced.
  • The supply of lucerne hay is low and the market for lucerne seed remains firm which may influence growers to favour seed production over hay for a more stable return. This will mean a continuing tight market for protein hay in 2014.
  • Prices are speculative for new season hay and remain unchanged this week as there is limited trading.

10. Central SA – Grain Commentary

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  • Murray Bridge December rainfall: 12mm (Ave: 23.7mm).
  • YTD: 337mm (Ave: 345mm). 416mm this time last year.
  • Showers experienced on Monday and Tuesday and some heavier showers halted harvest on Tuesday. Adelaide received around 6-7mm in the same period.
  • Wheat $ +0 ($244 to $254). Protein being received is high with little feed wheat being harvested.
  • Feed barley $ +2 ($212 to $222). The discount to wheat remains high making barley the preferred commodity. Feed barley has come up this week though on the back of good exporter bids.
  • Triticale $ +0 ($265 to $275). Little interest at the moment in triticale with little harvested at this stage. Triticale and oats will be some of the last grains stripped in the season.
  • Feed oats $ +0 ($178 to $188). Seems the early oats that have come off are off export quality. No real interest from dairy farmers as silage is a cheaper alternative. The current price shown is for feed oats and does not apply to export quality.
  • Based on current prices dairy farmers will be feeding barely to cows over the summer and autumn period.
  • Vegetable meal climbed strongly with Lupins up $10.
  • Frost damage much wider than just Clare valley as was first assessed in early October.

10. Central SA – Hay Commentary

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  • Baling cereal hay is largely completed for 2014 and despite some frustrations with the weather growers are fairly happy with this year’s crop reporting big yields, good colour but variable quality in their cereal hay.
  • Despite a lack of carry-over from 2012/2013 the big yielding 2013 cereal hay harvest looks set to replenish empty stores locally.
  • Supply of protein (medic and vetch) hay is less consistent after weather events at baling caused a lot of trouble for growers and resulted in reduced yields and quality.
  • Trading is slow and prices remain steady this week.

11. South West WA – Grain Commentary

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  • Bunbury December rainfall: 1.2mm (Ave: 21.9mm).
  • YTD 816mm (Ave: 733mm), compared to 647.6mm this time last year.
  • Fairly decent rains this week holding up the harvest. 17mm at Bunbury, 18 at Busselton and 11 at Harvey.
  • Wheat: $ +1 ($316 to $326). Wheat markets have settled in WA after much volatility of late. Yields in the area are above average at the moment.
  • Feed barley $ +0 ($270 to $280). Very large discount for barley against wheat making it an attractive commodity.
  • Triticale $ +0 ($275 to $285). Growers are making tentative sales plans as harvest is approaching shortly.
  • Oats +0 ($190 to $200). Feed grade oats are making $170 a tonne delivered in Perth. Predominately for chicken feed and major stockfeed mills.
  • October WA milk production was down 6.1 per cent on 2012 figures.
  • CBH is expecting some delays with deliveries as everyone hits their straps in the harvest.

11. South West WA – Hay Commentary

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  • With cereal hay for 2013 now completed, growers are reporting high yields and good colour; however feed analysis results are showing some variations in quality.
  • It’s estimated that yields for pasture hay and silage are down about 30% on previous years, following a wet start to spring and a short baling window.
  • ABAREs quarterly crop report released this week forecasts a cooler than average summer in Southern WA for 2013/14 and with temperatures already cooling off farmers are starting to feed silage already. This is likely to drive be an increase in demand for purchased hay next year.
  • Straw production is underway at present and is likely to be average or slightly down this year. Yields are good and so is the quality of straw made so far.
  • Hay trading on the domestic market is slow at present, particularly for cereal hay. Some pasture hay is trading and as a result the price rose last week. This week prices remain steady and unchanged.

12. North West Tasmania – Grain Commentary

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  • Smithton December rainfall: 12.4mm (Ave: 58.6mm).
  • YTD: 1057mm (Ave: 856mm), compared to 856mm this time last year.
  • Less than 2mm of rain through the north west and the same for King Island.
  • Wheat $+0 ($330 to $340). Victorian wheat harvest has been slow but will gain pace quickly this week.
  • Feed barley $ -5 ($295 to $305). The discount to wheat continues to widen making it more attractive for end users.
  • Triticale prices $ -5 ($323 to $333). No new season triticale trading as of yet but expect this to change in the next two weeks. Growers are looking to harvest this shortly in the southern regions of the mainland.
  • Oats prices $ +5 ($268 to $278). Bit of activity in the market at the moment as harvested grain quality for oats looks promising at this early stage.
  • Victorian and southern NSW wheat districts probably now safe from extensive downgrading save from further rain.

12. North West Tasmania – Hay Commentary

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  • Demand for fodder remains steady and supply is low. Buyers are actively making enquiries now to secure fodder when it becomes available. There is particular interest in securing cereal hay.
  • Silage production continues to be hampered by rainfall events. While the rain may help to bulk up crops and result in bigger yields, quality is likely to be down. The narrow gap for silage may see growers looking to make more hay.
  • Some cereal hay has been cut, however recent rain has caused to significant damage reducing the quality of this hay.
  • Fodder supplies are likely to be low again in 2014 as demand from the dairy and beef sectors looks set to remain steady and unfavourable weather conditions shorten the window for fodder production.
  • Prices are speculative and due to limited trading remain unchanged this week.