Grain – Hay Report – 30 May 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• With May being a critical month for developing crops in the northern hemisphere, the grain market has now removed another plank of risk from what is still expected to be record world grain crop in 2013. The cereal crops are planted and growing, and generally with good moisture in the major cropping regions.
• A question mark hangs over the 2013 oilseed crop with planting of both soybeans (in USA) and canola (in Canada) being delayed. The market has reflected this risk concern in its prices. Both wheat and corn futures markets have finished the month of May about where the month started, whereas soybean and canola prices are up about 7%.
• So while the global grain market is reasonably flat, when we add in the slide in the A$ for May from around 1.03 USc down to 0.96 USc, we see the Australian grain market trading about $15-20 per tonne higher over the month. This move is also supported by the local dry conditions for South East Australia.
• The global focus will now turn to 2013 yields – which will play out according to the weather over the next 90 or so days.
• There is still plenty of weather between now and when crops are in the bin, but the world is still poised for an all-time record wheat and corn crop. There are still about 100 days to go, but if they do deliver, global grain prices are expected to fall in the second half of 2013.
• The need for a decent autumn break is still required in Victoria and southern NSW, some of which may come in this next week. Elsewhere in Australia, crops are generally under way in fair conditions.
• The extremely dry inland conditions up north for the cattle industry has created very strong feedgrain demand and bulging cattle feedlots through NSW and Queensland. This demand is expected to persist through the balance of 2013 and is currently keeping local grain values over exporter bids.
• For the dairy regions, if you are close to a grain growing region (say Darling Downs, Central NSW, Northern and Western Victoria, SE south Australia) then you can expect spot wheat prices in the $280-320/tonne range, whereas regions which “import” grains (North Coast NSW, Atherton Tableland, Bega Valley, Gippsland) are more likely to see grains in the $320-360 range to cover the freight costs ($350-400 for Tasmania). If all the stars line up around the world for good crops between now and October 2013, a price drop of $50 by Christmas would not be a surprise – but we can’t bank on this yet because there are too many weather variables to say it will definitely happen.
• It is apparent that some growers are holding remaining grain (and there is less in farmers’ hands this year than usual) until they feel confident of the next season. As a result, there can be wide margins between buying and selling ideas at times.
• The most important question for dairy farmers is not trying to pick the bottom, but to make a start on covering some of their forward grain needs if the quoted prices allow them to make a margin, taking into account the expected milk pricing that the industry awaits from mid-2013.

National Summary – Hay:

• Prices are remaining high this week with cereal hay hard to find under $300t delivered in most parts of Eastern Australia. The biggest price movements were in straw this week, with reports of straw trading as high as $140t in North Central Victoria. It is likely that current straw supplies will not last through the winter which is of particular concern for dairy farmers in Victoria and NSW.
• As the temperatures cool off and pasture growth is becoming restricted concern over fodder supply for winter is increasing. In most of the key dairy regions across the country fodder is becoming very difficult to source of any type and quality.
• There are stocks of good quality cereal held by exporters in Western Australia, some of this product may become available to the domestic market in the coming months, however freight costs to the east coast will be very high.
• We are hearing more and more reports of both buyers and sellers getting burnt in fodder transactions as the market becomes tighter. It is important to ensure that both buyers and sellers look out for themselves by using written contracts for all fodder transactions, especially in current circumstances. If you would like more information on written contracts for hay please contact the AFIA office on 03 9530 2199.
• Vetch is in very limited supply and trading at over $300/t on farm where it can be sourced. It is worth noting that dry sowing of vetch in the Wimmera-Mallee has commenced but rainfall has been very low through that region. This gives an indication that vetch crops planned for hay in 2013 may perform poorly and be low yielding. Therefore a vetch shortage into 2014 may be likely as well.
• Fodder is already in short supply and there will be very little, if any carry over fodder into 2014. Buyers are urged to consider their fodder needs for 2014 and initiate discussions with their suppliers or hay traders as early in the hay season as possible. Fodder supplies in 2014 are dependent on the 2013 spring.
• Most hay in storage is under contract or committed to customers; however some lower grades of hay and straw are still available. Again buyers are advised to source their requirements as soon as possible.
• Cereal hay and vetch are in shortest supply in the eastern states. Reporting this week has indicated that vetch supplies will not hold on much longer and cereal hay is in very short supply.
• As fodder is moved greater distances freight is starting to have a big impact on price. This is reflected in this week’s price increases which are fairly even across different fodder types.
• Demand for hay from feedlots in QLD is starting to increase as Western QLD and areas in the Northern Territory have stayed extremely dry, with station owners opting to destock rather than freight hay.
• Supply of fodder is a particular concern for South East, SA, South West Victoria, Tasmania and Gippsland. In these areas freight is the biggest cost as local growers are struggling to meet the increasing demand for fodder.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

Notes: Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.

Notes: Hay prices are delivered, GST exclusive based on shedded hay without weather damage, of good quality and colour. It should be noted there is a wide variation in quality for hay, so prices are indicative for a mid-range product.

• Mareeba May rainfall: 13.6 (Ave: 7.2mm).
• YTD: 697.2mm (Ave: 715.9). Rainfall for this time last year was 760.6mm.
• A few showers this week, and the dry season starting to take hold. Future grazing feed will need to come from irrigation blocks strip grazed or cut and carried to the cows.
• Wheat: $+0 ($370 to $380). CQ wheat to be sown over next month. All CQ old crop wheat is now milling grade.
• Barley: $ +0 ($418 to $428). Too expensive in the ration compared to local corn/sorghum and wheat.
• Corn prices $ +0 ($373 to $383). Local tablelands corn now available. Look out for any weather damaged / stained corn at a discount.
• Sorghum: $ -4 ($323 to $333). Prices weakening as incoming CQ harvest gets under way. Around $100 freight from CQ so if local sorghum available, consider a share of the freight savings.
• Choices for feed grains remains between local corn and sorghum. Any local sorghum that appears would be worth bidding for.
• Good feed from sown summer crops and opportunities for silage making.

• With station weaning underway or nearing completion and a very dry season away from the coast, movement of fodder to the cattle buyers out west and in the gulf country has remained steady for most of the year. Local demand has also been consistent.
• There has been some demand from southern QLD for pasture hay given the fodder shortage in that region.
• Pasture Hay – Steady ($255-275): Supplies of hay are lower than usual, after a dry wet season; however the quality is good as baling conditions have been favourable

• Toowoomba May rainfall: 47.2mm (Ave: 36mm).
• YTD: 801.4mm (Ave: 332.2mm), compared to 339mm this time last year.
• Good rain for winter crops this week will allow grain on heavy clays to germinate.
• Wheat: $ 0 ($316 to $326). Through 2013, ASW wheat will be used for stockfeed, including dairy cows.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($308 to $318). Any barley available being bought by feedlots.
• Corn $ +0 ($320 to $330). Limited trading in new crop corn. Some stained corn coming through and not making gritting grade.
• Sorghum: $ -3 ($285 to $295). Our prices are for export sorghum quality. Check with nutritionist re sprouting, but SORX at $40-50 discount will be best buy if the quality is ok.
• Qld April milk production was down 7.6 per cent on April 2102.
• Some selling of sorghum ex farm now that rains have come for winter crops.
• Sorghum is viable alternative but best if heat treated.

• For growers planting cereal crops intentioned for hay on the Darling Downs, conditions have been good. Rain has been timely and crops will be harvested in late August/ September providing some relief to a very tight fodder market throughout South East QLD.
• Pasture hay and forage sorghum is still being baled on the downs, the highest levels of activity is from lot feeders trying to secure winter feed. This will conclude in the next week or two.
• While buying activity is strong, prices have remained steady this week.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($300-$330): Cereal hay is in particularly short supply nationally. Small squares of last season cereal hay are trading locally to hobby farmers and the horse industry at $7/ bale.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($400-$450): Lucerne in large squares is hard to source in the region, and is becoming a growing concern across the country. The horse and hobby markets are the most active buyers presently and paying $12-15/bale for premium quality lucerne where it is available.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$150): Feedlots active buyers. The quality is good but there isn’t a lot of reserve stock available locally.
• Pasture – Steady- ($180-$200): Baling has now finished for summer pastures. There is strong demand from lot feeders and station owners for pasture hay which is driving the price up. Buyers are attempting to secure enough rations for winter.

• Lismore May rainfall total: 65.2mm (Ave: 107.9mm). March rainfall 131.2mm
• YTD: 794mm (Ave: 616.2mm), compared to 727mm this time last year.
• Modest rains on north coast this week (20-60 mm), but deluge rains on mid north coast 180-300 mm.
• SFW Wheat: $ +0 ($363 to $373). Sorghum much more competitive with shot sorghum now being available at discount of up to $40 a tonne. Only milling wheat available.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($379 to $389). Barley is priced above wheat and hence not attractive compared to wheat or coastal sorghum. Strong feedlot demand.
• Corn $ +10 ($365 to $375). Local corn crops coming into play now but prices up driven by factors from Downs harvest. Corn can be blended with other grains for cows or fed as the main ingredient.
• Sorghum: $ -3 ($310 to $320). Sorghum prices weaker based on rains in Darling Downs for winter wheat crop.
• Best option to use any coastal grain that is stripped, which means personal contact with local grain growers.
• North coast April milk production was down 6.3 per cent this year compared to April 2012.

• More wet weather this week has started to slow pasture growth and delayed sowing for some, however it does appear likely that the paddock feed will sustain dairy farmers through the winter, if conditions dry out.
• Demand has picked up a little from dairies supplementing pasture with cereal hay. Graziers are also in the market for fodder, choosing to wean calves and feed them as opposed to selling steers into a very weak cattle market.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($260-$300): There is very little available locally and nationally and local traders are finding is difficult to source.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($300-$350): There is very little quality lucerne available locally. Supply is particularly tight for small squares which are trading at $12/bale.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($150-$170): With more graziers supplementary feeding cattle this year there has been steady demand for pasture hay. The quality is good but supply is low; therefore if we see a cooler winter it will quickly become hard to source pasture hay locally.

• Forbes May rainfall: 23mm (Ave: 31mm). March rainfall was 79.8mm.
• YTD: 185.6mm (Ave: 177mm), compared to 408 this time last year.
• About 10mm this week which will help emerging crops
• SFW Wheat: $ -2 ($275 to $285). Only milling grades now available, but some selling following the rains.
• F1 Barley: $ +3 ($249 to $259). Barley now tightly held.
• Corn $ +0 ($380 to $390). New crop supplies now coming on stream.
• Sorghum $ -2 ($353 to $363). Sorghum prices less competitive with other feed grains out on the central plains, but expect price easing as some ex-farm selling occurs after the rains in north of the state.
• More wheat is scheduled for June sowing and not too late for good yields.
• NSW Inland/Central milk production for April was down 0.6 per cent on April 2012 deliveries.

• There is very strong demand for fodder through the central west particularly for lucerne as it is one of the few regions with limited supply still available. Bulk hay, particularly of lucerne in big squares is now in very short supply.
• Local growers are giving priority to their regular customers before supplying new customers from other regions.
• Cereal hay – Steady ($250-$300): There is very little supply locally in large squares. Cereal hay in small squares is in very short supply but trading at $8-10/bale to horse and hobby farm buyers.
• Lucerne –+$35 – ($350-$400): Another price rise this week is indicative of the widespread competition for lucerne hay between chaff mills, traders and livestock buyers at the moment. Good quality small square bales are steady at around $10-12/bale.
• Straw – Steady ($115-$135): The Central West is not traditionally a big area for straw and there is not a huge supply.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($145-$155) – Low grade pasture hay is being snapped up by the livestock market for cheap forage where it is available. Supply is very limited as it is not a regular market for the region.

• Bega May rainfall total: 30 (Ave: 50mm). March rainfall 17.2mm.
• YTD: 224mm (Ave: 318mm), compared to 569mm this time last year.
• 25-30mm for Bega valley to Wednesday morning. Good for flats grazing but unlikely to spur growth on the hills.
• SFW Wheat $ +0 ($315 to $325). Little feed grade wheat on offer as ASW and APW become the default supply for wheat, where milling competition comes into play, both at Port Kembla and Sydney markets.
• Feed barley $ +2 ($278 to $288), a wide discount to wheat, but supplies dwindling in southern NSW. Growers are careful sellers.
• Triticale $ +5 ($309 to $319). Triticale is currently trading below wheat with some included in rations coming from Victoria.
• Oats: $ +0 ($285 to $295). Very strong demand for sheep feeding on Southern Tablelands and now too expensive for use in dairy rations.
• A good rain through northern NSW this week, but not enough rain yet for southern NSW… only 2-5mm in Riverina.
• Better falls in grain areas of the central west. NSW grain prospects for incoming winter crops improved but long way to go.

• Supply to the region is coming from Central West NSW, the Southern Tablelands and the Riverina. There is strong competition in these supplying regions from sheep and cattle graziers which is driving price up.
• Available paddock feed is getting low and there is concern over fodder supply for winter to this region.
• Cereal Hay – +$20 – ($280- $320): Prices have increased again as supply tightens across the region and fodder is being freighted longer distances.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($350-$400): Buyers are searching further afield to source lucerne. In supplying regions demand is rapidly diminishing and there is increasing competition from the livestock sector due to the dry conditions.
• Straw – Steady ($140-180): There wasn’t a lot of straw made in the supplying regions and now there is strong competition from other sectors. High prices are reflecting the lack of supply.

• Tatura May rainfall: 20mm (Ave: 45mm). March rainfall 35.6mm.
• YTD: 111mm (Ave: 183mm), compared to 310mm this time last year.
• Region had 3-10mm – not enough for either sown crops to geminate evenly, or for pastures to provide feed for beef cattle or dairy cows on dryland paddocks.
• Wheat: $ +4 ($272 to $282). Only milling grades now available.
• F1 Barley: $ +3 ($252 to $262). Barley in tight supply with concerns re new crop plantings.
• Triticale: $ +7 ($264 to $274). Triticale is good buying at any discount to wheat.
• Feed Oats: $ +0 ($222 to $232). Sheep and horse feed only at these prices.
• Grain is expensive with sheep and beef producers in market for both grain oats and fodder.
• Unlikely to see grain prices come down significantly till all Victorian grain areas have their winter crops established.
• Northern April milk production was down 1.0% compared to the previous April.

• Most fodder growers sold out of stock months earlier than usual, in early to mid-autumn, and availability of fodder coming into winter is now a serious concern for buyers. As a result we are still seeing prices rise with reports this week of straw as high as $140t on farm.
• Cereal hay – Steady- ($280-$300) –Cereal hay is very hard to find anywhere in the country. Growers are still getting a lot of enquiries indicating demand remains very high and the only ones that aren’t missing out are customers who have made arrangements with their suppliers earlier in the year.
• Lucerne hay – Steady – ($300-$320) – Supply is now very low there are no reports of uncommitted lucerne locally. Lucerne is being sourced in small quantities from as far away as SA and Central West NSW. These regions do not have large quantities and regular customers are being looked after as a priority by growers. Small squares are also hard to source and are trading at around $14/bale on farm.
• Straw – +$15 – ($130-$160) – This week buyer focus seems to have shifted to straw with a price increase of around $15t on average. There is very limited straw available that isn’t under contract and buyers are becoming desperate to find straw to meet their winter requirements.
• Vetch – steady – ($300+) – There are no reports of vetch trading under $300/t delivered and supplies are very low nationally. It is worth noting that dry sowing of vetch in the Mallee has commenced but rainfall has been scarce. This gives an early indication that vetch crops planned for hay in 2013 may perform poorly and be low yielding. Therefore a vetch shortage into 2014 may be likely.

• Sale May rainfall: 10.8mm (Ave: 52mm). March rainfall 36.0mm (Ave: 49.3mm).
• YTD: 160.2mm (Ave: 238mm), compared to 305.4 this time last year.
• Lack of autumn rain meant less grass growth, early use of silage reserves and cows will need more grain and fodder this autumn to maintain milk litres.
• SFW Wheat: $ +4 ($311 to $321). Main grain in demand now for winter. Riverina, and North East regions have planted crops but season by no means secure.
• Barley: $ +3 ($296 to $306). Most Gippsland dairy farmers have been on wheat for long time. Concerns for crops in NW Victoria
• Triticale: $ +7 ($302 to $312). A little more triticale on offer following rains in NE Vic.
• Feed Oats: $ 0 ($233 to $243). Stronger demand for sheep feeding and for the horse trade. Expect to stay firm while there is demand from Riverina sheep farms.
• Much of the Victorian wheat was sold to major traders last harvest. Farmer and merchant stocks are lower than normal and are holding stocks tightly still.
• Unlikely to see grain prices come down significantly till all Victorian grain areas have their winter crops established.
• Eastern (including Gippsland and the north east ) delivered 18.5% less milk this April than for April 2012.
• Some expectation the new season milk prices will rise by 15-20 per cent.

• Prices remain high but fairly steady this week. Fodder of all types continues to be shipped into the region with demand still strong; however the supply is very low in the key supplying regions and is a growing concern for traders and buyers.
• It is unlikely pressure on supply will ease now before spring as parts of the region are still waiting for a decent rainfall to boost pasture growth.
• Cereal Hay – Steady- ($300-$320) –. There is very little available now right across southern Australia. Any cereal hay of good quality is unlikely to get delivered to Gippsland for less than $300/t.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($300-$350) – The usual supply regions are struggling for lucerne supply which is extremely low nationally. Most reserves of Lucerne now are committed to regular customers.
• Vetch – Steady – ($300+) – There is very little available nationally. Vetch supplies are likely to be cleaned out by mid-winter, and with a poor start to the main vetch growing regions it is very likely there will be a vetch shortage in 2014. Regular buyers are encouraged to secure their vetch hay early, behind the baler in spring this year to avoid missing out in 2014.
• Straw – ($200-$220) – Straw is now being brought in from other parts of the state. Straw is trading at $100/t or more on farm in most regions; freight back to Gippsland is adding significant cost for buyers.
• Pasture – Steady– ($200-$220) –Very short supply of any grade pasture hay across Southern Australia, including the usual local supply of round bale pasture which has been cleaned out.

• Port Fairy May rainfall: 142.6mm (Ave: 64mm). March rainfall 24.6mm (Ave: 38.5).
• YTD: 228.6mm (Ave: 223mm), compared to 256 this time last year.
• Victorian cropping areas are in urgent need of rain. Many Wimmera-Mallee crops have not yet germinated.
• Western District crops more advanced and should be secure with a normal winter rainfall.
• Not as much canola was sown.
• Silage now an important component of cows’ diets. Cereal straw being fed to dry stock to reduce expenditure on energy needs.
• SFW1 Wheat: $ +4 ($277 to $287). Only milling grades available now and supply tight till the Mallee-Wimmera outlook for 2013 crop improves.
• Feed Barley: $ -5 ($248 to $258). The discount to wheat is $15 a tonne, but more wheat will come into play as winter approaches.
• Triticale prices $ +5 ($280 to $290). Triticale is in demand, but only at a discount to wheat. Some supply ex SE South Aust.
• Feed oat $ +0 ($226 to $236). Steady demand for sheep.
• Not a lot of grower stored grain coming to market – they are waiting on a break to the season
• Western District milk production for April was down 13.1 per cent on April 2012.

• Fodder growers in the key supply regions are generally hanging onto stocks for regular customers; excess fodder has already been sold or is being retained for on farm use.
• Whilst straw has been fairly accessible the market is becoming tighter and it is unlikely straw supplies will last through winter.
• Cereal – +$25- ($300+): It is extremely difficult to source cereal hay at the moment and most hay in storage is under contract. Prices increases are indicative of the very tight supply situation.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300+): The usual suppliers of lucerne from North Central Victoria and South East South Australia are very low or completely out of stock. Prices are quickly rising as buyers attempt to secure high protein feed, however demand is starting to ease as buyers consider other options to avoid high costs. The horse industry is still active closer to the regional centres and small squares are trading at $12-14/bale.
• Straw – +$15 – ($130-$160): Straw is starting to gain a lot interest from buyers. Supplies locally were thought to be quite good but with stocks moving now and a clearer focus on the level of demand it appears there will be a short supply. Some growers are hanging onto excess straw for their own use on farm as concern grows for a drought through winter.
• Pasture hay –Steady – ($220 – $260): Pasture hay is in short supply and very difficult to source across the state.

• Mount Gambier May rainfall: 59.6mm (Ave: 71mm). March rainfall 23.4mm (Ave: 35.3mm).
• YTD: 151.2mm (Ave: 214mm), compared to 200mm this time last year.
• All SA grain areas have had enough rain to germinate sown crops and to encourage further sowings of wheat and barley and some to pulse crops.
• Wheat $ +6 ($294 to $304). Wheat prices higher this week from lower A$ and active buying for exports.
• Feed barley $ -2 ($243 to $253). At a $30 discount to wheat, barley is again competitive with wheat, but wheat will be in demand as winter approaches. Barley price softer with improving crop prospects in SA for 2013.
• Triticale $ +5 ($280 to $290). Good buying at a discount to wheat and soe supply in SE South Aust.
• Oat prices $-2 ($219 to $229) More interest in oats from sheep and wool producers. Too expensive for its feed value to cattle.
• Victorian Mallee-Wimmera new season crop prospects still uncertain and supporting feed grains market
• SA April milk production down 11.5 per cent on April 2012 litres delivered.

• Straw prices have increased this week as growers try to source fibre for winter. Most other fodder types are remaining fairly steady at this stage. Demand has eased a little due to lack of availability and high prices.
• Cereal –+$25- ($300-$330): Cereal hay is becoming harder to source. Buyers are actively seeking lower grade hay; however it is in very low supply. Most stock seen in sheds and storage is under contract.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$330): Supply is becoming very low through the Naracoorte, Keith regions, with prices firm around $300/t. Growers with excess Lucerne are considering their own needs for winter now before trading hay given the very short supply available and the dry conditions.
• Straw – +$20 – ($130-$160): Trading has picked up with more interest in lower grade cheaper fodder. There is little in excess throughout SA.
• Pasture – Steady -($190-210): Pasture has been snapped up early by the livestock buyers. Pasture hay is becoming harder to source as the dry conditions have increased demand for both pasture hay and silage.

• Murraybridge May rainfall: 31.2mm (Ave: 35mm).
• YTD: 87.2mm (Ave: 117mm). 192.7mm this time last year.
• All SA grain areas have had enough rain to germinate sown crops and to encourage further sowings of wheat and barley.
• Wheat $ +8 ($284 to $294). Wheat prices firmer after lower A$ and competition from exporters for milling wheats.
• Feed barley $-7 ($239 to $249), The discount to wheat is making barley a more attractive feeding option for cows than wheat, but wheat demand will rise for winter feeding. Barley price softer on better feed grain outlook for 2013.
• Triticale $ +5 ($270 to $280). Good buying at discount to wheat.
• Feed oats $ -5 ($218 to $228). Oat prices may ease in coming weeks as paddock feed increases after the rains.
• This region seems to be trading more on the dry situation in Victoria than on the local supply outlook.
• SA April milk production down 11.5 per cent on April 2012 litres delivered.

• Prices remain high in the region and any fodder available is moving big distances to fill the supply shortage in Southern Australia. As a result fodder supply locally is getting very low. With lucerne and vetch in very short supply.
• Cereal Hay – Steady- ($250-$300) –Where cereal hay is available, quality is very high however the quantities are low and most fodder in storage is already committed to regular domestic or export customers.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($300+) – Low supply is due to limited acreages and poor results from dryland Lucerne in SA this year. There appears to be no big quantities of Lucerne available anywhere on the domestic market.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$130) – Any straw on farm is likely to be under contract but demand from the domestic market is fairly quiet at this stage.
• Vetch – Steady ($300+) – Where available growers are asking top dollar for good quality vetch hay, there is very little now available, with reports of only one or two very small quantities as yet not committed, and there is no indication of vetch being sold for less than $250/t on farm.

• Bunbury May rainfall: 135.6mm (Ave: 92mm). March rainfall 37.4mm (Ave: 14.2mm).
• YTD: 198.4mm (Ave: 161mm), compared to 128.2mm this time last year.
• Dairy areas had 3mm of rain this week and growing conditions excellent with feed still growing
• Dry through both the grain and dairy regions. The eastern wheat belt is facing a worrying situation with crops not coming through.
• Wheat: $ +18 ($321 to $331). Strong rises based on exporter demand for vessels and lower A$
• Feed barley $ +5 ($295 to $305). Wheat preferred for energy as winter sets in.
• Triticale $ +10 ($300 to $310). Triticale is competitive with feed wheat at these prices. Dairy farmers are seeking to buy triticale at a discount to wheat, but not always available.
• Oats +5 ($220 to $230). The current demand is from sheep producers for their winter feeding needs.
• Holders of grain being cautious till the new crop is assured.
• Don’t be surprised if the only wheat on offer to you at times over winter is milling grade wheat
• With the small harvest last year not much tonnage is still in grower hands.
• WA April milk deliveries were up 2.1% on April 2012, with WA the only state to show a gain on April 2012 deliveries.

• WA is one of the few locations nationally with some fodder reserves, particularly of cereal hay and straw. However a lot of the fodder in storage is committed.
• Lucerne hay is in short supply as which is due to production ceasing coming into winter.
• The season is looking promising so far with good rain favouring growers, who are getting ready to sow long winter varieties in mid to late May.
• Cereal hay – Steady – ($180-$250): There has been an oversupply of high grade new season hay and could be some carry over. There is competition for the lower grade hay which is pushing the price up.
• Lucerne – Steady ($400-$500) – Demand for Lucerne has increased, supply is running low and chaff mills are active buyers of premium quality hay. The main domestic activity is from local horse markets and prices are peaking at around $470/t on farm.
• Straw – Steady ($90-$120): There is some lower grade straw around that didn’t make export grade after being rained on before baling.
• Pasture – Steady ($110 – $130): There seems to be good stocks of pasture hay available to trade.

• Smithton May rainfall: 68.8mm (Ave: 79mm). March rainfall 57.2mm (Ave: 50.4mm).
• YTD: 222.8mm (Ave: 265mm), compared to 362.4mm this time last year.
• More rain this last week to make it very wet and cold and boggy conditions.
• Not enough rain on the mainland for Victorian crops to get established, so caution remains.
• Wheat $ +5 ($385 to $395). Red and white feed wheats and milling grades all trading on par.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($365 to $375). The price of feed barley is competitive versus wheat, but expect to see more wheat used as winter arrives
• Triticale prices $ +7 ($368 to $378). Mainland triticale is on offer. To be useful it must be cheaper than wheat, and may see some sellers from NE Vic
• Oats prices $ +0 ($300 to $310). Imported oats are going to horses and chicken meat rations, but market stronger as autumn sheep demand kicks in.
• Grain prices remain firm on dry conditions through main Victorian grain areas.
• Tasmanian April milk deliveries were down 9.6 per cent in April 2012 milk litres.

• There is a definite shortage of supply in Tasmania leading into winter. Ryegrass straw is available in limited supply and some dairies are using this low cost product for roughage.
• Silage stocks on farm are low and there is some demand for trading silage, small quantities are available for sale. It is recommended that trading be done on a $/t DM basis as opposed to per bale.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($205-$225): Stocks are very low due to lack of production for fodder and high competition in the grain sector.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$350): Lucerne supplies are limited; silage in particular is in high demand but not easy to source.
• Straw – Steady – ($135-$145): Given the dry conditions the quality of straw is high and is starting to move now, with demand at this time of year coming from mainland mushroom growers.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($160-$200): The supply of pasture hay is just not available this year, especially good quality pasture hay.