Driving Prices Up
- A critical comment that is being repeated is that there is a potential shortage looming of good quality new season hay. Wet conditions have firmed up growers’ decision to harvest for grain and in some cases where yields are expected to be well down in Western Victoria and South Australia growers would still rather take the price on grain.
- A shortage of new season vetch which is favored by farmers because of its protein content could see more lucerne traded to fill this gap in the coming year.
- Opportunist trade continues, where farmers can store hay, they are seeking out any available good quality fodder from previous seasons.
- The cost of production is set to increase in the coming year with fertiliser, chemical and fuel all earmarked to climb dramatically in price.
Driving Prices Down
- New season prices are not expected to increase dramatically as many farmers wait now to see how much is produced and the quality of new season hay before committing.
- A significant amount of last season’s weather damaged hay is on the market at a reduced price. With the potential for more lower grade hay again this season, growers ideally would have preferred to have traded last year’s weather damaged carryover.
- Good spring conditions will see many farmers producing and conserving as much silage as they can themselves, particularly along the NSW Coast and Victoria.
- Australia continues to do well with no significant drought or natural disaster requiring the high volumes of hay being traded to all states that we have seen previously over the last ten years.
- Wet conditions in the west and on the eastern side of the country have started to impact the new hay season with conditions starting to replicate 2020. The small amount of vetch cut in the west of Victoria will not fair well if down for an extended period.
- The hay season will be well underway by the end of the October in most parts with many growers having to make the decision to cut cereal crops for hay now at the optimal growing point before grain starts to form and risk rain. Ongoing rain events through New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia this growing season means many heavy crops will also be laying on damp ground and will require significant drying time.
- Boarder closures and permit requirements continue to be a concern for contractors as they work to understand the changing rules and regulations that they and staff must comply with when moving between regions and states.
- Majority of spring silage has been made now in Northern Victoria, with Southern Victoria starting in the last fortnight but continues to be hampered by wet weather. Good conditions in the Bega region will see a significant amount of silage made again this season.
- In the north demand in the Atherton Tablelands remains steady with a small amount moving locally. Following the ongoing rainfall in Northern QLD many parts including the Tablelands continue to have an influx of fresh grass. The Darling Downs region reporting one of the best seasons following good rainfall for the first half of the year. Oaten crops have started to be cut in the area for hay.
- New South Wales reporting good crops following timely rainfall. South Australia impacted by dryer conditions, further in the Southeast crops are on track to yield well. Northern Victoria will start cutting within the fortnight. Several key factors still needed to take place and a relatively dry spring to improve on last year’s season.
- Western Australia has recorded one of its best season breaks. Rain has been timely for the west this season. High yields expected through the region as the season continues to progress well. Prices remain strong for all fodder types in WA.
- Buyers are encouraged to feed test and view fodder before purchasing to be sure of the quality of the feed.