Grain – Hay Report – 13 December 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• International values were directed by the USDA report that was released on Wednesday night. It was expected by the trade the report would reveal increased US wheat exports and tighter stocks to use. Instead the report implicated US exports as unchanged and increased ending stocks. USDA increased global production estimates by 5.04Mt and in comparison increased usage by only 0.98Mt. With supply firming, this bearish news saw CBOT March futures end the week down 11.25 USc/bu to close on Monday night at 650.50 USc/bu.
• News on the global market this week was dominated by bearish factors for international values. Further production estimate increases in a number of key markets saw markets soften. StatCan revised Canada’s wheat production this week to a record 37.5Mt up 4.5Mt. Wheat estimates in Australia were increased by ABARES to 26.5Mt due partially to the continually growing WA crop.
• The Australian dollar held it’s ground this week coming off a meagre 0.007 USc to close at 91.00 USc on Tuesday night. Comparably low Australian currency values to last year are playing a key part holding up Australian grain values.
• Australian cash prices continue to perform strongly compared to International values. This is particularly evident this week with March CBOT wheat falling A$5/t over the week while APW1 managed to make gains over the week across the majority of port zones. This market gain has been strongly supported by merchants putting aggressive bids in an attempt to cover the strong shipping stem booked over the coming months in the key export states of SA, WA and Vic.
• As has been reiterated over past weeks, there is expected to be little downside on feed values in the northern states. A tight domestic balance sheet in Queensland and northern NSW is holding prices despite falling international values. Continual dry conditions and is restricting sorghum planting placing further pressure on potential feed supply this year. End users will be forced to pay premium values to lock away feed grain as competition for remaining stocks increases.
• In terms of comparing affordability across commodities feed barley remains at an extensive discount to ulterior options. Supply is relatively abundant with southern states experiencing solid yields throughout. At current values compared to other appropriate substitutes feed barely is being identified as the commodity of choice.
• Throughout key end user regions in Northern Victoria and Southern NSW there is an opportunity to pick up quality-affected grain at a discount to published prices. It is important to know exactly what your purchasing in this situation and appropriate due diligence is undertaken before purchase. With frosted wheat and barley being segregated at a number of bulk handlers in significant quantity it represents an opportunity to lock away feed quality grain. The late break early in the season has also left many growers with contaminated wheat and barley crops due to the inability to control previous years seed. Appropriately named ‘Wharley’ many end users are actually paying above feed values, as it possesses higher protein levels. The key message when purchasing this quality-affected grain is to determine the properties and test results of what you are buying and considering if it is suitable for you. There are enormous differences in the level of frost damage/contamination in each parcel.

National Summary – Hay:

• With trade remaining fairly steady this week there has been little movement in price. Typically, as more hay comes onto the market at this time of year, we don’t expect much movement in the market before Christmas. Early in the New Year, as buyers start to consider their autumn/ winter fodder requirements, we expect to see prices starting to increase.
• Across the country there are reports of steady demand for lucerne hay, particularly into Southern QLD. Supplies are low which is uncommon for this time of year. With water costs rising in NSW and interruptions to baling in South Australia, we may see tight supplies of lucerne hay in 2014. Buyers who have not yet done so are encouraged to start making enquiries for their lucerne hay supplies now to avoid high spot market prices in 2014.

Northern Australia

• In Northern Australia demand for hay has started to ease slightly as cash flow is restricting some buyer’s ability to pay for hay.
• Hay supplies are limited locally and hay is moving from as far away as Northern Victoria.
• Given the big distances hay is moving to reach Southern QLD growers are encouraged to speak to their hay supplier now, regarding orders for the Christmas period, to avoid long delays.

Southern Australia

• In the Southern market prices have remained fairly steady this week.
• Some growers are trying to move their cereal hay in order to get cash flow and there are reports of very low on farm prices being offered which may present an opportunity for buyers. Growers with storage capacity are opting to sit on their hay until the New Year rather than taking the discounted prices on offer now.
• Buyers are advised to be wary of ‘bargains’ particularly when purchasing cereal (and also vetch) hay this year. We are hearing reports of high NDF’s and ADF’s this year and also some hay being baled ‘green’, before it is properly cured. AFIA advises anyone purchasing hay to get a feed analysis done, use a trusted supplier or to inspect hay themselves prior to purchase to ensure you know what they are getting.
• With pasture hay production in the Southern Dairy regions being hampered by unfavourable weather conditions there has been a slight increase in demand for hay, particularly vetch hay.

Western Australia

• The cereal hay season is now completed with big yields and good colour reported. Quality is variable.
• Rain has impacted the quality of silage and pasture hay and as a result some growers have opted not to bother with fodder conservation. Production is down as a result.
• Straw is being baled at present and conditions have been favourable. Good quality and yields are reported.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

The information in this report is collected and disseminated with due care and attention to its accuracy, but Dairy Australia accepts no liability if, for any reason, the information is inaccurate, incomplete or out of date.

• Mareeba December rainfall: 0.4mm (Ave: 102mm).
• YTD: 900mm (Ave: 909). This time last year the tablelands had received 879mm.
• Wheat: $ +3 ($372 to $382). CQ wheat of recent season is all of human consumption quality. This plus the road freight works against its use as feed for dairy cows or any other animal use. Better to concentrate on the genuine feed grains of sorghum maize, millet and any barley grown in CQ this calendar year.
• Barley: $ +8 ($425 to $435). Any time the barley price exceeds the wheat price is time to take barley out of rations for its energy. There may be other reasons for its inclusion in small amounts at particular times, especially in home mixes.
• Corn prices $ +5 ($443 to $453). New local incoming corn crop is now the prime grain source for new feed grain purchases. It may be prudent to pay full gritting corn values against corn millers and processors to avoid road freights up from CQ.
• Sorghum: $ +0 ($314 to $324). Second best option after local corn. This involves taking sorghum out of silos in CQ and high costs in freight. Local sorghum from Mount Garnett was another option but it seems this enterprise has stopped cropping. May be other sources off the tablelands for sorghum, but closer than CQ.
• A dry week up on the tablelands and CQ this week, it wasn’t a negative as feed and summer crops from Nov rains are still growing and fast. The better-managed paddocks on the tablelands are now under routine watering. Some new kikuyu feed now on poorer soils to sustain cows while the higher quality feed from summer sown fodder crops make progress and increased biomass.
• Local corn is getting close for stripping prior to Christmas. Primarily for gritting contracts and use, but scope for purchases of sorghum trucked north and incurring $100 a tonne freight. Price range is based on local corn purchases.

• Demand from buyers on the Tablelands has eased a little in the past few weeks however the cattle stations in drought affected Western Queensland are still seeking hay. They have not had the rain, the Tablelands has.
• Prices may ease in the coming weeks depending on the ability of growers to make hay and the quality of the hay if it is baled.
• Prices remain firm but steady this week.

• Toowoomba December Rainfall: 3mm (Ave: 110mm).
• YTD: 1043mm (Ave: 757mm), compared to 625mm last year.
• No rain this week after two weeks of rain totalling from 30-60mm.
• Wheat: $ +3 ($331 to $341). All south east wheat from the harvest just finished is of human consumption quality, or has a use for blending with other grades. Best not to get involved in bidding wars with this competition. Especially as Sthn QLD will be the main region where higher protein wheats are sourced.
• Feed Barley: $ +8 ($324 to $334). Feedlots now buying Barley more aggressively and taking most of current offerings ahead of both dairy farmers and pig producers. Price now too close to wheat for normal use. In any case sorghum is clearly the cheapest available grain.
• Corn $ +5 ($372 to $382). Some new season corn due to be stripped at Atherton around Christmas, but unlikely to be moved this far south, or for its presence to soften Downs corn prices.
• Sorghum: $ +3 ($292 to $302). Clearly the cheapest feed ingredient for current use in dairy rations. Especially in dairy pellets where the heat generated in the extrusion process of making pellets, causes breakdown of chemical barrier to starch granules.
• Sorghum sowing continues where growers have had rain at the higher end of the range. But still only a modest set of sowings and now it is getting late for best yields. So incoming sorghum supply prospects fading rather than increasing. There were late sorghum sowings in SEQ last season – well into January.
• Although the late sowing promoted widespread downgrading, the commodity still found some useful markets including dairy farmers and pig producers. This will encourage those growers currently without enough soil moisture to sow as late as mid January, if they get enough good rains by then.
• As rains didn’t come by mid-Nov it meant that the wheat harvest had a rain free run, which helped to preserve the wheat quality across the board.

• Pockets of South East Queensland have received some more rain this week but most of Western and Southern QLD remain dry.
• The ongoing tough conditions mean that for some buyers cash flow is restricting their ability to purchase hay and with fodder being sourced from as far away as North Victoria freight is adding considerable cost. High costs have put downward pressure on demand for fodder which has softened slightly over the past few weeks.
• There is limited cereal hay available locally and with the help of freight subsidies some hay is moving north from Southern NSW where supplies are more stable. Prices remain firm but may ease in the lead up to Christmas if more hay comes onto the market.
• Second cut bulk Lucerne hay from Northern and Central West NSW is also underway but supplies are very tight. Most hay moving into Queensland is from forward contracts made months ago.
• Given the big distances hay is moving to reach Southern QLD growers are encouraged to speak to their hay supplier regarding orders for Christmas now, to avoid long delays. Buying pre-Christmas may present an opportunity for buyers as the price is likely to pick up again early in the New Year as demand starts to increase.
• Straw supplies are very tight locally as feedlots were very keen buyers behind the baler.

• Lismore December rainfall total: 4mm (Ave: 137mm).
• YTD: 1326mm (Ave: 1238mm), compared to 1154mm this time last year.
• SFW Wheat: $ +3 ($378 to $388). Northern NSW wheat harvest has well and truly finished. It did so before any rains came that may have reduced grain quality for flour milling. Consequently all the wheat in silos in Nth NSW is of flour milling quality. But more than that, it has higher grain protein than most other areas of Australia. Hence is in strong demand for export to premium wheat markets in bulk or containers.
• Feed Barley: $ +5 ($371 to $381). Barley is cheaper than wheat but not sufficiently to create any current buying interest. Feedlots are buying aggressively as they did at this time last year when the crop was smaller. Sorghum appears a better buy for summer cow feeding.
• Corn $ +5 ($417 to $427). Out of contention with other feed grain commodities. Old crop supplies are very limited and buying feed corn even at these prices would be difficult. Expect new supplies from both Downs and local coastal areas in late February.
• Sorghum: $ +3 ($333 to $343). As conditions on the Downs allow only a limited main crop sorghum sowing, the price of stored commodity is firming. Even if more Downs sorghum is sown right up to January it will still be less than last year.
• Summer cropping programs are being sown now as soils take tractors and implements comfortably. Conditions for sowing crops are actually better here along the coast than up on the Downs.
• More interest in higher valued crops such as mung beans, soybeans and vegetable crops, but should be some sorghum going in on poorer soils without irrigation. Worth probing this whenever summer crops are going in.
• Big payoffs in finding a sorghum source for Feb delivery without having to use a country merchant or truckie-trader.
• Downs sorghum sowings are continuing, where growers have had rain at the higher end of the range over the previous two weeks. Still only a modest set of Downs sowings and now it is getting late for optimum yields. We saw this in the quality with a similar sowing period last season.

• Demand is expected to remain steady for the coming weeks until summer pasture growth takes off and hay prices will start to ease if there is follow up rain.
• Some cereal hay and Lucerne has been moving into the region from southern NSW.
• The recent rain has improved grower confidence for summer cropping, with strong interest in maize, millet and sorghum for silage.
• There is limited Lucerne hay available and the price has increased considerably over the past month but reflects the big variation in quality available. Lucerne hay remains steady this week trading at $300-$500t delivered to Northern NSW.
• New season straw is showing good quality and trading around $140-$150t delivered, beef producers are the most active buyers.

• Forbes December rainfall: 20mm (Ave: 58mm).
• YTD: 481mm (Ave: 495mm), compared to 547mm this time last year.
• SFW Wheat: $ +5 ($220 to $230). Prices for wheat are up on strong buying through agents for shipment in containers for China. They are outbidding the bulk export buyers currently, hence dairy farm buyers wanting prompt delivery need to meet this market to secure wheat.
• F1 Barley: $ +4 ($201 to $211). Northern barley prices are firmer but in Central West the increase is modest. Barley has some appeal for summer cow feeding, but on energy basis wheat is not out of consideration.
• Corn $ +5 ($390 to $400). Old crop supplies very thin and unlikely to change before February, hence the holders of corn are waiting for a price jump and are not selling at our quoted price range.
• Sorghum $ +5 ($323 to $333). Sowing conditions in the north have not been ideal and it is now getting very late – consequences of sowing late are lower yields and greater risks of low quality – staining.
• Harvest for some has been delayed this week with around 19mm of rain but for many the crop was cut and off. It is unlikely to have affected wheat quality, at best it slightly took away some brightness and protein testing may be down 0.1 – 0.2%.
• Currently all wheats are of a human consumption category or have potential for being blended in with one. Hence why from ASW-70/10 you will only see one price. 70/10 tonnage contracts with larger processor are mostly being filled with ASW quality wheat.

• In the past few weeks the season has dried off and trading has picked up. Dairy and feedlots are the most active buyers locally and some hay is moving up to north coast to meet the steady demand from that region.
• High grade cereal hay is difficult to source and is sought after by the chaff mills and horse market.
• Second cut lucerne is now becoming available and is moving quickly. Lucerne supplies remain low as most new season hay is already sold on forward contracts
• Buyers seeking lucerne hay in 2014 are well advised to source their hay as soon as possible to avoid disappointment in 2014.
• Demand for straw is slow at present and growers are opting to save their costs and not cut straw unless they have a buyer. Straw production is likely to be average or down on previous year in 2014.
• Prices remain firm but steady this week.

• Bega December rainfall total: 24mm (Ave: 59mm).
• YTD: 702mm (Ave: 644mm), compared to 829mm this time last year.
• SFW Wheat $ +0 ($260 to $270). Steady east coast wheat prices are being elevated by strong bidding by Chinese interests in wheat for packing in containers to China. They are outbidding the main bulk exporters and keeping the wheat price up. So far all wheat in southern NSW and VIC has human consumption potential.
• Feed barley $ +9 ($231 to $241). Barley is short in northern NSW and feedlots are reaching further south for required tonnages for 2014. Southern harvest stalled after heavy rain last Thursday and again on Monday.
• Triticale $ +5 ($246 to $256). With southern triticale harvest just starting there is more interest in triticale while all of the wheat so far stripped makes a human consumption category – this may change if future rains damage unstripped ripe wheat in border areas
• Oats: $ +10 ($218 to $228). Stronger market for Oats in the Riverina for movement north to Sydney and surrounds for poultry and general stick use.
• Hill paddocks in the valley have the best paddocks for ryegrass feed. They provide the right feed for cows and also are the base for any grass hay to be made. The recent rain would ensure continued growth and should now provide more hay opportunities between now and Christmas.
• Silage could be made also from the coming growth, most dairy farms are geared to making the most of their silage from summer fodder crops grown under irrigation on the flood prone flats – principally forage corn varieties where high dry matter yields can be achieved.

• The season is drying off particularly in the key areas such as the Riverina, Southern Tablelands and Central West who are key fodder suppliers to the Bega region. Demand remains steady at present.
• New season cereal hay appears to be of reasonable quality but feed analysis is demonstrating variable results. In particular high NDFs and ADFs are being reported. Buyers are advised to ensure they inspect hay and get feed analysis information before making any purchases.
• Silage yields have been down this year due to patchy seasonal conditions. This is likely to increase demand for cereal hay in 2014.
• Second cut lucerne from the Central West is now becoming available; however the conditions have been patchy and hay quality may be affected. Supplies are likely to remain tight as there is steady demand for Lucerne from Northern NSW at present.
• Buyers seeking protein hay such as lucerne are encouraged to lock in their 2014 requirements now.
• There is some pea hay available which may be a good and slightly cheaper alternative to Lucerne.

• Tatura December Rainfall total: 30mm (Avg: 34mm)
• YTD: 362 mm (Ave: 488mm), compared to 485mm this time last year.
• Wheat: $ +7 ($262 to $272). Victorian and Riverina wheat prices are up strongly due to buying by Chinese interests for packing in containers and export to China. Bids are higher than the major exporters posting on daily bid sheets for receival at GrainCorp/other sites, for bulk export and domestic contracts. Unknown how long this activity will continue. No doubt this trade is helped by absence of shot wheat.
• F1 Barley: $ +4 ($205 to $215). Solid export and domestic buying of feed barley stimulated by the $57 a tonne discount of feed barley to the lowest grade of wheat (typically ASW). Worth buying and pricing summer and autumn feed barley needs at current prices. Possibly buying out of paddocks to save one storage, and a handling cost.
• Triticale: $ +5 ($258 to $268). Triticale crops are starting to come off. Even wheat crops have not yet been stripped; growers would like to know in advance if they are going to load trucks out of paddocks to silos elsewhere, or into silos on the grain farm. Good time to talk to growers direct about possible triticale supplies through 2014, even if you don’t yet want to set a price.
• Feed Oats: $ +0 ($185 to $195). Bit early yet for new season feed oats prices to form. There are some bids of course. However sale prices are expected to be some $20 a tonne over the current range which we are using, based on those bids.
• Solid rains last Thursday throughout all northern districts brought the VIC and Riverina grain harvests to a halt. Canola is well and truly finished. Growers are into wheat and to a lesser extent barley and pulses.
• Yields are variable – thought to be linked with the severity of frost damage in mid Oct. Despite rains of 20-30mm in lower and upper Nthn Vic areas on the previous Thursday there has been no weather-damaged wheat.
• It would take another two similar rains before Christmas, followed by humid weather. Weather after the Thursday rain has been cold. Wheat stripped post rain is not as bright in colour and slightly lower in grain protein, but importantly, all of human consumption quality or suited for blending with better.

• Demand for hay locally is slow at present, however there are some reports of protein hay (lucerne and vetch) moving from Northern Victoria to Queensland to meet strong demand in that region.
• There are good supplies of new season cereal hay locally however feed analysis results are indicating that there is a big variation in the quality of hay this year. In particular sourcing high grade cereal hay may be difficult.
• With second cut Lucerne becoming available there has been a slight increase in trade, prices remain steady this week.
• Straw production is underway but likely to be average or down on average this year.
• With trading slow prices remain unchanged this week.

• Sale December rainfall: 25.2mm (Ave: 54mm).
• YTD: 562mm (Ave: 597mm), compared to 599mm this time last year.
• SFW Wheat: $ +7 ($321 to $331) Export interest has been high throughout Victoria and Riverina. Chinese interest has been high for container packing driving the current price spike. Trades are often higher than what is advertised by merchants as competition increases. Keep this in mind when proposing prices to growers compared to advertised merchant bids.
• Barley: $ +0 ($251 to $261). A $57 discount from ASW1 wheat to feed barley is stimulating demand from buyers at the current price levels.
• Triticale: $ +0 ($298 to $308). Triticale crops are just beginning to come off. Even where crops have not yet been stripped growers are securing sales so that logistics can be organised prior to harvest. Much of the triticale harvest is already sold despite the quantity harvested being minimal.
• Feed Oats: $ +0 ($213 to $223). Still early for prices of new season oats to be released. There are some early bids but expect the market to mature and strengthen in coming weeks.
• Gippsland October milk production was down 3.9 per cent on October 2012 litres.
• Grain and pellet usage continues but at lower levels than traditional rates as quality pasture growth remains.

• Trading is slow at present as growers concentrate on conserving their hay and silage.
• Pasture hay has commenced but the patchy weather conditions have slowed baling and will impact quality.
• New season cereal hay prices are fluctuating and demand is slow. There looks like being good reserves of cereal hay in 2014 however high grade hay may be difficult to source.
• New season cereal and vetch hay is of variable quality and buyers are well advised to use their trusted hay supplier, ensure they have their hay inspected and get a feed analysis before purchasing any hay this year.

• Port Fairy December rainfall: 17.2mm (Ave: 47.8mm).
• YTD: 929mm (Ave: 714mm), compared to 721.2mm this time last year.
• SFW1 Wheat: $ +7 ($263 to $273). Export demand in Victorian ports is strong at the moment and is a key driver for strengthening prices in the past week. There still remains concern the quality of Western District wheat due to weather damage as the harvest has only just begun.
• Feed Barley: $ +4 ($206 to $216). The $62 discount to ASW1 wheat is stimulating buying of feed barley for both export and domestic use. Current sales seem to be occurring straight out of the paddock to end users bypassing bulk handlers.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($250 to $260). Triticale is not popularly grown in the region. Mallee triticale is proving more popular for purchase due to its higher protein levels.
• Feed oats $ +0 ($193 to $203). Feed oat prices have not yet stabilised with the quantity entering the market still minimal. Expect this to change in the coming weeks as more comes in off the header and the trade begins to naturally stabilise the market.
• October milk production was down an enormous 7.4 per cent on October 2012.

• With unfavourable weather conditions continuing to hamper hay production in South West Victoria there has been a slight increase demand for quality new season hay. In particular vetch hay has been in demand.
• More rain over the past week will see quality of pasture hay not yet baled continue to deteriorate.
• While weather damage is likely to affect the visual appearance and quality of pasture hay locally, the quality of purchased cereal hay may be more deceiving. We are hearing reports this year of variable feed analysis results, particularly in cereal hay. All buyers are encouraged to get a feed test before purchasing hay in 2013/2014.
• Cereal hay is being delivered to South West Victoria for $150-$180t delivered, down approximately $20 on last week. This may be due to more hay coming onto the market.
• Interest in vetch hay has started to pick up again and prices are remaining steady at $240-$260t delivered.
• Supplies of protein hay, in particular lucerne look set to be tight this year. Buyers are encouraged to secure their 2014 lucerne hay requirements now to avoid high spot market prices in 2014.

• Mount Gambier December rainfall: 10.6mm (Ave: 38.7mm).
• YTD: 788mm (Ave: 710mm), compared to 630mm this time last year.
• Just 10mm of rain this week throughout the Mount Gambier region.
• Wheat $ +10 ($280 to $290). The container trade for wheat has driven the sharp increase in the past week. Predominately centred from smaller private storage operators, more than the major operators out of the bulk handling systems. Seems to be some low grade feed wheat available in the northern Wimmera and Mallee regions due to frost damage and contamination.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($233 to $243). Barley prices from South Australian sources are lower than that from Victoria currently. Plenty of feed barley around in both SA and Vic, which is proving the grain of choice to hold in the short term as growers instead sell higher quality grades for cash flow.
• Triticale $ +5 ($250 to $260). Triticale is complicated by high supplies of feed barley because of lower recievals of malting barley. Expect the market for triticale to pick up in the coming month.
• Oat prices $ +0 ($185 to $195) Oats are usually the last crop harvested and the same methodology is proving true this year. Most of the oats already harvested are being stored on farm.
• Paddock feed quality is proving excellent this far into the season.
• The lower southeast is only kicking into harvest now as many begin on canola.

• Patchy weather conditions have slowed fodder production in South East South Australia and will result in reduced quality new season hay.
• The supply of lucerne hay is low and weather conditions have been unfavourable for making quality hay so far this season. Lucerne hay supplies may be tight in 2014 and buyers are encouraged to secure their supplies early to avoid high spot market prices in 2014.
• Due to the unfavourable weather conditions silage production has been down. This may lead to an increase in haylage and pasture hay production if the weather conditions improve.
• Prices are speculative for new season hay and remain unchanged this week as there is limited trading.

• Murray Bridge December rainfall: 17.8mm (Ave: 23.7mm).
• YTD: 343mm (Ave: 345mm). 416mm this time last year.
• Rains experienced in the region range between 10-20mm for the week. Harvest was temporarily interrupted mid week with many still yet to get going.
• Wheat $ +0 ($244 to $254). The South Australian wheat market has steadied compared to last week.
• Feed barley $ +2 ($212 to $222). Barley followed the wheat movements over the week with little movement.
• Triticale $ +5 ($270 to $280). As one of the last crops to be harvested its prices is aligned to wheat. Expect some trade to occur in the coming weeks as triticale is harvested.
• Feed oats $ +0 ($178 to $188). Seems the early oats that have come off are of export quality. The feed oat price has not yet stabilised with minimal trade.
• Still some scope for weather damaged grain to appear but it would require heavy falls this week.
• Recent rains are stimulating Lucerne growth, which is providing handy feed for dairy cows.

• Baling cereal hay is largely completed for 2014 and despite some frustrations with the weather growers are fairly happy with this year’s crop reporting big yields, good colour but variable quality in their cereal hay.
• Despite a lack of carry-over from 2012/2013 the big yielding 2013 cereal hay harvest looks set to replenish empty stores locally.
• Supply of protein (medic and vetch) hay is less consistent after weather events at baling caused a lot of trouble for growers and resulted in reduced yields and quality.
• Trading is slow and prices remain steady this week.

• Bunbury December rainfall: 1.6mm (Ave: 21.9mm).
• YTD 816.6mm (Ave: 733mm), compared to 693.6mm this time last year.
• Some heavy rains experienced throughout the region with the heaviest recorded being out of Lake King at 50mm.
• Wheat: $ +0 ($316 to $326). Bidding interest is stronger for wheat than barley. Some rejections of US corn shipments to China due to GM contamination may help prices for both wheat and feed barley.
• Feed barley $ -5 ($265 to $275). Very large discount for barley against wheat making it an attractive commodity for purchase in comparison to other available substitutes.
• Triticale $ +0 ($275 to $285). Many people looking to lock away purchases before the grain is harvested. It is common practice to contact growers prior to harvesting their triticale. With minimal supply around what is harvested may trade relatively quickly.
• Oats +0 ($190 to $200). These prices represent milling quality oats. Feed grade oats are making $170 a tonne delivered in Perth. Predominately for chicken feed and major stockfeed mills.
• Harvest production figures are reaching record levels, as the risk of weather damage is now minimal at this stage of the harvest period.
• The big discount between wheat and barley is continuing to be exploited by end users.

• With cereal hay for 2013 now completed, growers are reporting high yields and good colour; however feed analysis results are showing some variations in quality.
• It’s estimated that yields for pasture hay and silage are down on previous years, following a wet start to spring and a short baling window.
• ABAREs quarterly crop report released last week forecasts a cooler than average summer in Southern WA for 2013/14 and with temperatures already cooling off farmers are starting to feed silage. This is likely to result in increased in demand for purchased hay next year.
• Straw production is underway at present and is likely to be average or slightly down this year. Yields are good and so is the quality of straw made so far.
• Hay trading on the domestic market is slow at present, particularly for cereal hay, however some pasture hay is moving. This week prices remain steady and unchanged.

• Smithton December rainfall: 12.8mm (Ave: 58.6mm).
• YTD: 1078mm (Ave: 856mm), compared to 856mm this time last year.
• Roughly 20mm of rain has fallen over the state in a fairly even spread.
• Wheat $+5 ($335 to $345). Victorian mainland wheat prices are being driven by Chinese interest for packing in containers. Bids are higher than what major merchants are currently posting.
• Feed barley $ +5 ($300 to $310). The discount to wheat remains well above traditional levels. Prices are strengthening on the back of strong export demand on the mainland.
• Triticale prices $ +5 ($328 to $338). No new season triticale trading as of yet but expect this to change in the next two weeks. Growers are looking to harvest this shortly in the southern regions of the mainland.
• Oats prices $ +0 ($268 to $278). Still early in the season for prices in the market to be released. Much of the crop is still due to be harvested. Expect to pay $20 more than the current published price when prices are released.
• Despite solid rains there is currently no damage to grain quality.

• Demand for fodder remains steady and supply is low. Buyers are actively making enquiries now to secure fodder when it becomes available. There is particular interest in securing cereal hay.
• Silage production continues to be hampered by rainfall events. While the rain may help to bulk up crops and result in bigger yields, quality is likely to be down. The narrow gap for silage may see growers looking to make more hay.
• Some cereal hay has been cut, however recent rain has caused to significant damage reducing the quality of this hay.
• Fodder supplies are likely to be low again in 2014 as demand from the dairy and beef sectors looks set to remain steady and unfavourable weather conditions shorten the window for fodder production.
• Prices are speculative and due to limited trading remain unchanged this week.