Grain – Hay Report – 8 May 2014

International & National Summary – Grain:

International Markets

• International markets posted gains again this week with both July and December CBOT wheat futures up A$5/t week on week bringing the total rally so far to A$19/t in Aussie dollar terms.
• The same themes continue to drive wheat prices in the wrong direction; US winter wheat is the worst condition seen at this time of year for 10 years. This week the percentage of the crop rated good-to-excellent fell to 31%, down from 33% the week prior. Hot and dry conditions continue to stress the winter wheat crop as it head into critical stages of development and the weather outlook shows little sign of relief.
• US spring wheat and corn planting pace remains behind average as wet weather continues to delay field work. However, it is likely too early for this to be of any serious concern, it won’t take too many dry days for US farmers to catch up to average planting pace.
• Conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to simmer and has contributed a considerable risk premium to international grain prices. At this stage export business continues to be written and executed out of the black sea, however the longer the conflict continues the more likely it is to impact physical grain flows.

Domestic Markets

• Domestically, wheat prices in northern markets are starting to relax with reports of bulk vessels unloading both wheat and barley into Brisbane port and rumours of more on the way. Although it is likely that a lot of this grain is already committed, it is adding a surge of supply into a tight balance sheet that has been operating hand-to-mouth for some time and this is putting downward pressure on wheat prices.
• Sorghum prices in these markets have continued to soften this week as the CQ crop comes off and heavy selling pressure from traders and growers alike has seen delivered Darling Downs market fall again this week.
• The amount of wheat being offered ex farm Victoria has been small, causing speculation that there may not be much wheat left on farm. Whilst Victorian growers have been light sellers of feed barley, only trickling supplies to the market, it is expected that there is still a reasonable amount of feed barley unpriced on farm.
• With sowing underway, reports are that growers in Northern NSW have been sowing wheat sporadically, in less than ideal conditions. They have had to plant deeper to chase the moisture, and a fall of at least 20mm would be required to improve the top soil moisture to more comfortable levels.
• Central and Southern NSW will move into the full swing of wheat sowing this month with many growing areas having had an ideal start to the season. Victorian growers are said to be 30-40% through their seeding program, and progressing at a rapid pace. Current conditions appear ideal for good germination and early growth. The early break also allowed most farmers to prepare their paddocks with a good knock down spray after weeds germinated, reducing the likelihood of contaminated cereals this season.

National Summary – Hay:

• The demand for hay appears to have slowed further this week. The hay market is expected to remain steady over the coming weeks until temperatures start to cool off.
• The southern market has seen a slight softening of lucerne hay prices resulting from slowed trading.
• There are reports that an El Niño will affect Australia in some capacity later this year. This could impact the hay market with increased demand for hay in winter and decreased yields if crops have a dry finish.

Northern Australia:

• Demand for hay remains steady. Many buyers are trying to secure hay for winter as temperatures cool off.
• Low hay stocks locally mean most hay is being sourced from Victoria and South Australia.
• Good weather conditions have enabled baling to resume in the Atherton Tablelands.
• There is some concern in Northern NSW about water allocations for irrigation later in the year. Low rainfall YTD has resulted in little run off into water storages. Low water allocations could impact the amount of lucerne produced later in 2014 and may see lucerne supplies remaining low for some time through that area.

Southern Australia:

• Demand remains steady this week, with market slowing following easing demand from Northern Australia.
• Lucerne hay prices eased in most of the key dairy regions. Price resistance from buyers is driving this trend. It is not expected that prices will soften much further as supplies are fairly tight. Prices are expected to firm when demand picks up in a few weeks.
• Most lucerne producers in North Central Victoria are finishing their final cut of lucerne for the year. Some growers have opted to make silage or haylage rather than hay due to concerns over high moisture. Now could prove a good time to source good quality lucerne silage from your preferred supplier in North Central Victoria.

Western Australia:

• There is still strong demand for cereal hay from dairy farmers and livestock producers in the South West of the State. Cereal hay prices strengthened this week off the back of increasing demand.
• Pasture hay is very difficult to source with the 2013 hay harvest mostly used up by now.
• Straw supplies are above average and quality is good. Feedlots and dairy producers are active buyers.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

The information in this report is collected and disseminated with due care and attention to its accuracy, but Dairy Australia accepts no liability if, for any reason, the information is inaccurate, incomplete or out of date.

• Mareeba May rainfall: 0mm (Ave: 11mm).
• YTD: 468mm (Ave: 718mm), compared to 685mm this time last year.
• No rain received this week on the tablelands but none was wanted.
• Wheat: $ -3 ($410 to $420). Some CQ farmers have enough soil moisture to give confidence in wheat crops soon to be sown, if it’s not already in the ground. Doubling cropping, so wheat sown into summer cropping country is planned for Emerald and other irrigation areas.
• Barley: $ +0 ($480 to $490). Anytime barley prices are above wheat they are well and truly outside the traditional spread of $25-30/t below wheat prices.
• Corn prices $+0 ($355 to $365). Corn supplies are expected to be low all through 2014. Holders of grain and growers with crops approaching maturity, not anxious to sell now when the activity is centred on CQ sorghum.
• Sorghum: $ -7 ($335 to $345). With the main CQ sorghum harvest well underway, prices have been coming off over the last 10-14 days. This is directly correlated with growers needing cash at or after harvest and traders receiving frequent offers from growers. Estimates for the crop are in the parameters of 300kt; this number is on the high side.
• Moisture levels are high in the soil and will easily sustain crops and pastures to grow on without the need for irrigation at this usual time of year.
• Grain moisture levels in some parts are holding the harvest up; they have a maximum receival level of 13.5%.

• Demand for hay remains steady. Weather has favoured contractors this week and baling is underway again.
• Hay supplies are very low. Local supplies will not be replenished for some weeks until the baling season commences in earnest.
• Prices remain unchanged this week.

• Toowoomba May Rainfall: 33mm (Ave: 36mm).
• YTD: 254mm (Ave: 360mm), compared to 759mm last year.
• A bit of rain this week on the downs, falls varied from 10-25mm across parts of the region. This rain was welcomed but makes it difficult for growers to make sowing decisions.
• Wheat: $ -3 ($379 to $389). New season cropping prospects so far not great despite the rain. In most cases soil moisture levels are low. Some crops are already in but most growers are waiting on more convincing rainfall.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($366 to $376). Barley is being trucked up from the Wagga area to the Downs still this week.
• Corn $ +0 ($412 to $422). Holders of feed corn supplies and crops close to maturity are waiting for the sorghum harvest activity to finish before offering their limited new crop supplies.
• Sorghum: $ -13 ($312 to $322). Rain has stopped the local harvest of late sown sorghum crops. It will now take a couple of heavy frosts to bring down the grain moisture of sorghum heads to a maximum of 13.5% to be safely stored.
• The region really needed 50mm to wet the heavy clays enough to give good crop germination and establishment. They either wait for the next rain to improve yield prospects, or they sow now and hope they get an inch over the next month or so.
• Late sown sorghum is still being stripped on the Downs with a few exports here and there for packing into containers but mainly being picked up by ex-farm delivered markets.

• Prices remain steady. Demand is also steady, but has eased slightly in the past few weeks.
• Although some areas still need follow up rain, most producers now have access to some paddock feed for livestock after recent rains. This has eased the demand for hay.
• Local supplies of hay remain low although some baling of pasture hay (generally low quality) and straw has been underway in the past few weeks. Cereal hay is being sourced from Victoria and South Australia.
• Producers and feedlots yet to secure feed for winter are encouraged to act quickly to secure their requirements. Hay supplies throughout NSW are low, putting some pressure on the demand for cereal hay from Victoria and South Australia. If the reports of an El Niño later in the year are accurate hay supply may come under pressure nationally throughout winter.
• Straw is currently very difficult to source locally and costly to freight from interstate.

• Lismore May rainfall total: 17mm (Ave: 72mm).
• YTD: 385mm (Ave: 670mm), compared to 846mm this time last year.
• North coast dairy farms had rains from 15-20mm this past week. Mid north coast less, with some ranging around 5-7mm.
• SFW Wheat: $ -3 ($394 to $404). Nearly all wheat in this region not in traders’ hands is of human consumption. Not a great position for dairy farmers looking for a margin.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($380 to $390). Most grain feeds are sticking with sorghum because of the cheaper price and the abundance of it due to the harvest locally, albeit small and the northern CQ harvest.
• Corn $ +0 ($372 to $382). Holders of feed corn supplies and crops close to maturity through QLD and Nth NSW are waiting for the sorghum harvest activity to finish before offering their limited new crop supplies.
• Sorghum: $ -13 ($352 to $362). Sth QLD late sown sorghum crop harvest is now on, but delayed by patchy rains. Opportunities for direct farm pick up with no grain storage premiums.
• Slower growth now with the cooler weather for wheat that is in and up.
• Look out for any late crops on coastal strip – sorghum, millet or corn.

• Demand remains steady. With some buyers still in or recovering from drought, there is a focus on sourcing hay and silage in preparation for winter.
• All hay supplies are low and some buyers are still sourcing cereal and lucerne hay from Victoria and South Australia.
• Sowing cereal crops for fodder and forage has commenced. The shortage of oat seed previously noted appears to have passed.
• Lucerne hay supplies locally are very low and will not carry through winter. Baling has been underway again but the market is still hand to mouth. Demand remains steady and prices firm this week.
• As the temperatures cool off lucerne production is starting to wind up for another year. Lucerne hay supplies will not be replenished until production starts again in spring. There are also concerns about the availability of irrigation water in 2014/15. Without good rains later this year lucerne hay production could be impacted.
• Pasture hay production is still ongoing. Quality is variable. Good pasture hay is difficult to source due to low yields in 2013 and strong demand earlier in the year.
• Straw supplies are low and there is still interest in baling sorghum and soybean stubble to meet the demand for roughage through winter.

• Forbes May rainfall: 15mm (Ave: 31mm).
• YTD: 299mm (Ave: 178mm), compared to 168mm this time last year.
• Mid March/April rains have provided soil moisture for winter crops now being sown.
• SFW Wheat: $ +1 ($275 to $285). The market this week was relatively steady. Export activity from this region is low after light crops last year and strong feed demand north.
• F1 Barley: $ -1 ($255 to $265). Barley purchases, for northern use, more coming from Wagga than locally here. Freight is easier to arrange to go north from the Wagga area. Local discount to wheat back inside normal discount range.
• Corn $ +0 ($410 to $420). Market steady this week as no news helps the market improve or bring it back. Crops appear to be close to maturity.
• Sorghum $ -5 ($355 to $365). Sorghum harvest from late sowings now commencing on Liverpool Plains, but grain moisture slow to come down. Wants a couple of good frosts to bring it in.
• Risk of low yields this year due to an expected below average rainfall through NSW and VIC due to El Nino indicators, which doesn’t help rainfall likelihood through winter and spring.

• Demand remains steady and prices firm this week.
• Although good paddock feed is available some buyers are taking action to secure their winter fodder stocks. This trend is being driven by low supplies locally and forecasts of an El Niño.
• Cereal hay is difficult to source in NSW due to the steady demand earlier in the year.
• Lucerne hay supplies are low and will not be replenished until the 2014/15 hay season gets underway. There are concerns about irrigation water availability in 2014/15.
• Pasture hay is difficult to source and quality is variable.
• Straw is in strong demand. Straw supplies are low and some growers have taken the opportunity to bale summer crop stubble (sorghum, millet etc.) to meet the demand.

• Bega May rainfall total: 4mm (Ave: 48mm).
• YTD: 247mm (Ave: 312mm), compared to 195mm this time last year.
• No rain the previous week but 8mm or so of rain on Tuesday morning this week.
• SFW Wheat $ +2 ($287 to $397). Prices now back to pre-Easter values. Exporters are more anxious now to source wheat out of South Australian ports than Victorian ports at this time.
• Feed barley $ -1 ($262 to $272). Barley pricing still steady. Best to buy barley from VIC to escape the costs of sourcing from too far north.
• Triticale $ +0 ($279 to $289). Still quite high relative to wheat. First winter demand for the extra energy of triticale is likely to come from the cooler milk producing areas of Corryong, Tallangatta and Wodonga, than the milder Bega Valley.
• Oats: $ +5 ($270 to $280). It has turned cold quickly on the Monaro and other elevated pastoral country. Feed is not good everywhere and there is a role for hand feeding of stock in late autumn as stock attempt to maintain body temperature.
• Distinctly colder weather since the previous Wednesday. Frosts at night are to be expected from here on in.

• With paddock feed now available the immediate demand for fodder has slowed, but there is still steady demand as buyers try to source feed for winter.
• Fodder supplies in NSW are generally low, with much of the hay in storage already under contract.
• Cereal hay prices eased slightly last week but should remain steady for the coming weeks until temperatures cool off and demand picks up.
• The market for lucerne hay is also steady but supply is low, with very tight supplies forecast throughout winter. Prices remain steady this week.
• Demand for straw has picked up slightly in the past few weeks from buyers seeking roughage.
• Prices remain steady this week due to the steady trading.

• Tatura May Rainfall total: 10mm (Ave: 45mm)
• YTD: 159mm (Ave: 182mm), compared to 92mm this time last year.
• Dry land paddocks received their opening rain with sub and rye paddocks greening up after that rain.
• Wheat: $ +3 ($280 to $290). While feed barley prices remained steady since mid March, wheat prices have advanced $20/t in the same period. Expect some wheat price easing over the next month as growers make more sales to position their income in the present financial year.
• F1 Barley: $ -1 ($245 to $255). VIC feed barley prices have been relatively steady since Mid March. No obvious reason why this should change.
• Triticale: $ +0 ($260 to $270). Triticale is priced midway between wheat and barley. Not many sellers as yet. Expect prices to come closer to wheat as winter arrives.
• Feed Oats: $ +8 ($235 to $245).
• Weather conditions suddenly turned colder all through Victoria. Even farmers in the Mallee lit their first home fires. Stock needed shelter from winds and grain oats were fed on many farms to help stock adjust.
• Croppers through northern VIC have had a brilliant start to their season, a few rains in late April followed by more rains to kick off May crops are in and up in many areas.

• Demand remains steady this week and prices are unchanged. Hay trading activity is not expected to increase until temperatures cool off in the coming weeks.
• Cereal hay supplies are good throughout Northern Victoria. Prices remain steady at present.
• Lucerne hay supplies are low. Some growers have opted to bale lucerne silage or haylage rather than hay due to the conditions. There may be an opportunity for some buyers to source lucerne haylage or silage from growers through Northern Victoria right now.
• There are good supplies of straw locally but a large amount is already under contract.
• Prices remain steady this week.

• Sale May rainfall: 0mm (Ave: 52mm).
• YTD: 129mm (Ave: 237mm), compared to 150mm this time last year.
• Some regions of the Gippsland area have had 10 to 15mm of rain over the past two weeks, so the region is now wet and likely to remain so all through winter.
• SFW Wheat: $ +3 ($314 to $324). While feed barley prices have remained steady since March wheat prices have advanced by $20 a tonne. Expect to see wheat price ease over the next couple of months as growers make more sales to position income in the present financial year.
• Barley: $ -1 ($287 to $397). Prices remain steady with only a $1 drop. No reasons why this should change.
• Triticale: $ +0 ($302 to $312). Triticale is currently priced midway between wheat and barley. Not many sellers from the north east yet so expect to see prices come closer to wheat as winter arrives.
• Feed Oats: $ +8 ($253 to $263). With weather conditions changing and becoming colder more stock are being given oats to help them adjust to the cold.

• Conditions are patchy throughout Gippsland. Some regions have had a good break and demand for fodder is slow. Other regions are drier and are starting to see a slight increase in hay trading.
• Cereal hay and lucerne hay from North Central and Western Victoria are both sought after. Prices remain steady this week.
• Cereal hay supplies are good in Northern and Western Victoria. Although Northern buyers have put some pressure on the market and supplies may become tighter later in the year.
• The supply of lucerne hay is low throughout Victoria and demand remains steady. Vetch is difficult to source and where it can be found quality is variable. Some lucerne silage or haylage is available from producers in Northern Victoria who have just finished their final cut for the year.
• Demand for pasture hay is slow although there is a small amount of trade between farms locally.
• Some straw is available in Gippsland but quality is variable. Gippsland buyers seeking straw are sourcing it from North Central and Western Victoria.

• Port Fairy May rainfall: 49 mm (Ave: 69mm).
• YTD: 237mm (Ave: 224mm), compared to 101mm this time last year.
• Southwest Victoria has had a lot of rain over the past two weeks after a dry early autumn for central areas of the region. Many areas have had up to 80mm of rain over the past two weeks with Casterton recording 110mm.
• SFW1 Wheat: $ +3 ($275 to $285). Expect some wheat price easing over the next month as northern growers make more sales to position income in the present financial year.
• Feed Barley: $ -1 ($242 to $252). Prices remain steady since March with no obvious reasons for a change occurring.
• Triticale $ +0 ($260 to $270). Triticale is priced right in the in the middle of wheat and barley. Not many sellers currently but expect prices to come closer to wheat as winter arrives.
• Feed oats $ +5 ($244 to $254). Weather conditions changed and became cooler just after Easter. Recent rains and cold winds have required sheep and beef cattle to be put into more sheltered paddocks and also given oats to help them adjust to the cold.
• Many grain growers started seeding canoed and red wheat varieties into dry soils in case the wet season delivered too much rain for cropping to continue. With the recent rain it is now to wet to continue seeding and hopefully the conditions will dry out over the rest of May.

• Demand for hay is slowing down. Good pasture feed is now available and buyers are opting to utilise pastures rather than buying hay.
• When temperatures start to cool off and pasture growth slows demand for hay will pick up again.
• There are good stocks of cereal hay still available in North Western Victoria but quality is variable. Always have a feed analysis done prior to purchase so you know what you are buying. Cereal hay prices firmed slightly with the market sitting around $200-$220/t delivered to South West Victoria.
• Lucerne hay is still available in small quantities through parts of Northern Victoria and South East South Australia. In general supplies are much lower than usual for this time of year and will be tight through winter. Easing demand saw lucerne hay prices soften slightly to $260-$300/t landed depending on quality.
• Pasture hay is in good supply but quality is variable. Good quality pasture hay for trading may be difficult to source this year.
• Some straw is available locally and quality is variable.

• Mount Gambier May rainfall: 66mm (Ave: 71mm).
• YTD: 219mm (Ave: 213mm), compared to 97mm this time last year.
• Heavy rains through southwest Victoria and lower south east of South Australia this week with Mt Gambier recording 66mm.
• Wheat $ +5 ($304 to $314). South Australia wheat markets are now moving up strongly with good supply of commodities still and with five ports to select from.
• Feed barley $ +5 ($274 to $284). The $30 discount to wheat makes feed barley attractive while weather conditions are still relatively mild. Feed barley is $30 a tonne cheaper at South Australian ports than Portland in Victoria.
• Triticale $ +5 ($288 to $298). Expect prices to continue to rise closer to wheat prices as winter slowly arrives.
• Oats $ +5 ($235 to $245). Weather conditions have become colder through Victoria and this has sparked a buying interest in low quality feed oats for feeding short term to sheep and cattle.

• Demand for hay remains steady. There is reasonable paddock feed at present, taking some pressure of the demand for hay.
• Some buyers have been actively sourcing hay in preparation for winter. This has seen the demand for lower grade lucerne and cereal hay pick up.
• Cereal hay supplies are below average locally and quality is variable. There seems to be some variation in price depending on the location and the quality. This week we are hearing of prices between $170-$220/t delivered.
• Demand for lucerne hay is steady at present and supply is low. There has been increasing interest in high grade lucerne hay from chaff mills and lot feeders outside of the region. Prices eased another $10 this week with hay trading at $260-300/t delivered. The large variation is driven by the quality of hay available.
• Pasture hay is available and trading is slow. It is not expected trading will pick up until temperatures cool off. Prices remain steady this week.
• Straw supplies seem to be diminishing. Trade has been steady and prices remain steady.

• Murray Bridge May rainfall: 18mm (Ave: 34.9mm).
• YTD: 161mm (Ave: 117mm), compared to 59mm this time last year.
• South Australian northern and eastern grain producing areas have now had four significant rain events since late February. All the rains except the first one were steady and entered the soil with minimum surface soil runoff.
• Wheat $ +8 ($276 to $286). South Australian wheat prices have only risen $16 a tonne since March with good supply of both commodities still and five ports to select from.
• Feed barley $ +6 ($257 to $267). Prices have risen again by $6 a tonne with exporters chasing South Australian feed barley as doubts about Black Sea origin barley and corn are increased by pro Russian resistance in Ukraine.
• Triticale $ +5 ($260 to $270). Triticale prices need to keep moving up as wheat and barley prices continue to firm under strong exporter demand.
• Feed Oats $ +0 ($183 to $193). Prices remain steady with some demand for oats with colder weather in south west areas of Victoria, but the South Australian oat demand is low with abundant autumn sheep feed in all agricultural and pastoral areas.

• Demand for hay on the domestic market is slow at present. With a good start to the season in most of the state buyers are relying on paddock feed rather than purchased hay.
• The forecasted an El Niño event could impact the hay market with increased demand for hay in winter and decrease yields if crops have a dry finish.
• Cereal hay supplies remain good but quality is variable.
• Supplies of protein hay (medic, vetch and lucerne) are low and are expected to be difficult to source later in the year.
• Straw quality has been high and supply is good.
• With trading slow prices remain steady for another week. Prices are expected to remain steady until demand picks up as temperatures cool off.

• Bunbury May rainfall: 30mm (Ave: 96mm).
• YTD: 57mm (Ave: 165mm), Compared to 111mm this time last year.
• There was promising local rains last week with a few follow up millimetres this week. Hopefully rain will keep coming now with better weekly totals.
• Wheat $ +0 ($334 to $344). Feed wheat prices have increased by $20 a tonne since early March, in line with South Australian wheat prices. The prices have been moving parallel with international price movements moderated by the exchange rate influences.
• Barley $ +5 ($295 to $305). Prices up $5 with a wide discount to wheat.
• Triticale $ +5 ($305 to $315). Prices are up to preserve a sensible margin above barley, but in practice, city stockfeed mills don’t have storage space to take in triticale at this time of year unless they want to bin it with wheat.
• Oats $ +0 ($220 to $230). Prices remain steady with no real domestic demand for oats to feed sheep at this time of year.
• The start to cropping has been brilliant, with farmers busy with seeding activities and as such growers are not offering much grain at the market prices.

• Hay trading on the domestic market remains strong with cereal hay in demand. Dairy farmers in the South West are the most active buyers.
• While some parts of WA have received rain in the past few weeks more follow up is needed in the South West of the state.
• Some growers have commenced seeding winter cereals and are anticipating rain in the coming days.
• Supplies of cereal hay are good this year. Prices lifted slightly this week due to increased demand on the domestic market. Cereal hay is now trading for $180-$220/t delivered, depending on quality and location for delivery.
• The lucerne hay market is hand to mouth at present and supplies will be tight throughout 2014.
• Straw production was above average this year and supplies are good. Feedlots and pellet mills are the most active buyers.
• Pasture hay and silage supplies are now very low as growers have had to feed out most of their 2013 fodder harvest. Sourcing pasture hay is difficult in this region.

• Smithton May rainfall: 12mm (Ave: 80mm).
• YTD: 214mm (Ave: 264mm), Compared to 171mm this time last year.
• Soil moisture conditions are great. Falls across the area were between 10-20mm with Burnie recording 38mm. The change came through last week with snowfalls on the mountaintops in north central areas.
• Wheat $ +3 ($357 to $367). Tasmanian feed wheat prices have increased steadily since March around $22 a tonne against a background of lower grain use.
• Feed barley $ -1 ($327 to $337). Like feed wheat, feed barley prices remain relatively steady since early March with no reason why these prices should rise over the winter months.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($339 to $349). Mainland sellers of triticale are still holding back from offering their grain until winter properly arrives. Triticale will compete with Tasmanian red wheat supplies.
• Oats prices $ +7 ($322 to $332). With weather conditions suddenly changing some stock have needed more shelter and some hand feeding of oats to help them adjust to winter conditions.

• The hay market remains slow but steady this week. After a good autumn break pasture is now available and many dairy farmers and livestock producers are opting to utilise paddock feed rather than buying hay.
• Cereal hay supplies are low and quality is variable.
• Lucerne supplies are low and sourcing lucerne hay will be difficult throughout winter.
• The supply of pasture hay is good. Quality is variable due to the patchy weather conditions during the hay season.
• There is some straw available in the Northern midlands. Dairy farmers and feedlots are the most active buyers.
• Prices remain steady at present and are not likely to change considerably until temperatures drop and demand picks up.