Grain – Hay Report – 9 May 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• Grain prices are up across the board in Australia by about $15 per tonne in this last week; only exception was WA where prices were flat but WA had a steep rise a few weeks back. Why the lift in prices?
• While the northern hemisphere spring is often described as the “silly season” for grain markets due to the volatility of prices depending on what the weather forecasts are for US, EU, Russia and China, there are probably three drivers behind our local market at the moment.
• They are: (1) uncertain planting conditions for the US corn crop where planting is running a few weeks late due to wet weather; (2) the volatility and slide of the A$ (this raises local grain prices) as a result of the RBA cut to interest rates; and (3) the extremely dry conditions in all of south-eastern Australia, where farmers are now starting to stop planting. They have planted about 40-50% but with no rain to germinate the crop, they are now holding back to see a break before committing more seed to the ground.
• May/June will remain a critical period to watch as far as grain price direction is concerned for the last half of 2013 and into 2014. The US, Canada, EU and Black Sea will each need to see normal weather during this period if we are to see the easing of grain prices as widely expected. If not, then the market will remain concerned about feed grain supplies and prices could remain firm.
• All of South-Eastern Australia is suffering from one of the driest 6-9 month periods we have seen – an autumn break to see planting completed is keenly awaited.
• For the dairy regions, if you are close to a grain growing region (say Darling Downs, Central NSW, Northern and Western Victoria, SE south Australia) then you can expect current wheat prices in the $270-300/tonne range, whereas regions which “import” grains (North Coast NSW, Atherton Tableland, Bega Valley, Gippsland) are more likely to see grains in the $300-350 range to cover the freight costs ($350-400 for Tasmania).
• The range between buying and selling ideas will be within a larger range than usual until the weather gives us more certainty about what the season has in store. It is apparent that some growers are holding remaining grain (and there is less in farmers’ hands this year than usual) until they feel confident of the next season.
• If the 2013 global crop comes in as expected (i.e., average yields), wheat prices could be down to more like $220-250 by December 2013 compared to around $300 in December 2012. The most important question for dairy farmers is not trying to pick the bottom, but to make a start on covering some of their forward grain needs if the quoted prices allow them to make a margin, taking into account the expected milk pricing that the industry awaits from mid 2013.

National Summary – Hay:

• As buyers become more desperate to secure fodder prices are on the rise again. Reporting is becoming increasingly difficult as there is a lot of movement in the market and variation between fodder grades, particularly in southern Australia.
• It is important to ensure that both buyers and sellers look out for themselves by using written contracts for all fodder transactions, especially in such a tight market as we are currently seeing.
• The biggest price rises this week were in South West Victoria and Gippsland. With both regions now desperate for rainfall and very little feed available, the situation is becoming desperate for buyers in these regions.
• Supply of fodder for all grades and types is low. Most hay in storage is under contract and while some lower grades of hay and straw are still available. Again buyers are advised to source their requirements as early as they can.
• Cereal hay and vetch are in shortest supply. Reporting this week has indicated that vetch supplies will not hold on much longer and cereal hay is in very short supply.
• If good rain fall was received in the Southern parts of the country and western QLD, some fodder may be released onto the market. Most casual hay traders are ensuring their own fodder reserves are secured and have stopped trading.
• Demand for hay from feedlots in QLD is starting to increase as Western QLD and areas in the Northern Territory have stayed extremely dry, with station owners opting to destock rather than freight hay.
• One point to note is there are some exceptional feed analysis results coming through this year, and even though sellers are remaining firm on price, what looks expensive on a per tonne basis might actually be reasonable value when costed on the value of ME and or protein.
• Supply of fodder is a particular concern for South East, SA, South West Victoria, Tasmania and Gippsland. In these areas freight is the biggest cost as local growers are struggling to meet the increasing demand for fodder.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

The information in this report is collected and disseminated with due care and attention to its accuracy, but Dairy Australia accepts no liability if, for any reason, the information is inaccurate, incomplete or out of date.

Notes: Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.

Notes: Hay prices are delivered, GST exclusive based on shedded hay without weather damage, of good quality and colour. It should be noted there is a wide variation in quality for hay, so prices are indicative for a mid-range product.

• A dry week to start May
• Mareeba May rainfall: 1.8mm (Ave: 7.2mm).
• YTD: 685mm (Ave: 715mm). 2012 rainfall was 894.8mm against an average of 912.6mm.
• Grain markets offshore are jumpy based on concerns about delays to US corn planting.
• Wheat +$5 to $350 – $360/t. Improving yield prospects for both in ground sorghum and wheat to be sown over next month.
• Feed barley +$5 to $398 – $408/t, new season barley supplies from CQ very limited. Too expensive in the ration compared to local corn/sorghum and wheat.
• Corn prices -$0 ($363 – $373/t). Main corn crops coming off now. Local tablelands corn now available. Look out for any weather damaged / stained corn at a discount.
• Sorghum +$5 ($317 – $327/t). Prices firm for sorghum from old crop from Central Queensland as we await incoming CQ harvest prospects for May/June.
• Choices for feed grains remains between local corn and sorghum. Any local sorghum that appears would be worth bidding for.
• Good feed from sown summer crops and opportunities for silage making.
• Scattered rains in CQ to 15 millimetres but very little new crop wheat sowings as yet

• It is still extremely dry in western parts of the state and increased demand for hay is starting to show. Station weaning programs are now underway and likely to cause an increase in demand and potentially increase prices slightly in the coming weeks.
• Pasture Hay – Steady ($255-275): Supplies of hay are lower than usual; however the quality is good as baling conditions have been favourable

Just 5mm to start month of May on Downs, but Rocky dairy farms got 19mm to extend summer growing season.

Toowoomba May rainfall: 5mm (Ave: 36mm). March total 113.0mm

YTD: 759mm (Ave: 332mm). 2012 rainfall was 667.0mm against an average of 733.3mm.

Feed wheat +$15 ($296 – $306/t). Through 2013, ASW wheat will be used for stockfeed, including dairy cows.

Feed barley +$10 ($298 – $308/t), Buying of barley by feedlots has decreased. More interest in the sorghum including some of the SORX at $50 a tonne discount to SOR 1. Still some sprouting but reports most not too serious.

Corn +$0 ($300 – $310/t). Main corn crop harvest under way with some stained corn coming through and not making gritting grade.

Sorghum +$4 ($265 -$275/t). Some new crop sprouted Downs sorghum available but quality is variable: our prices are for export sorghum quality. Check with nutritionist re sprouting, but SORX at $40-50 discount will be best buy if the quality is ok.

Dry conditions on grain farms. No early seeding of winter crops yet.

Late sown sorghum harvest continues as grain moisture comes down. Expected to continue till July, but not a big sorghum crop.

Dairy farmers are now having to buy milling grade wheat for cows.

Sorghum is viable alternative but best if heat treated.

• The supply of fodder is low on the Downs and premium quality fodder of any variety is becoming hard to source.
• West of St George it is very dry with some drought declared regions not receiving decent rainfall since June 2012. Large numbers of cattle have been shipped east keeping feedlots busy. Feed lots are taking fodder, particularly Lucerne, and baling their own hay where possible.
• Cereal Hay – +$15 – ($280-$330): Cereal hay reserves are particularly low in supply and these stocks won’t be replenished until spring.
• Lucerne Hay – +$20- ($320-$440): Location and quality are the main price drivers for Lucerne in South East QLD and as a result there is a big variance in pricing. Lucerne in large squares is becoming harder to source right across the region putting even greater pressure on supply and price. The horse markets are the most active buyers presently and paying $15-17/ bale for premium quality Lucerne where it is available.
• Straw – Steady: ($120-$150): Feedlots active buyers. The quality is good but there isn’t a lot of reserve stock available locally.
• Pasture – Steady: ($120-$150): Baling of summer active grasses is coming to an end. These types are in ample supply and include Buffel and Rhodes grass and Gatton panic.

• North coast had 7-10 mm of rain this week. Mid north coast 10 to 15 millimetres.
• Lismore May rainfall total: 4mm (Ave: 74mm). March rainfall 131.2mm
• YTD: 845mm (Ave: 644mm). 2012 rainfall was 1212.6mm against an average of 1214.7mm
• SFW wheat +$15 ($343 – $353/t), Sorghum much more competitive with shot sorghum now being available at discount of up to $40 a tonne.
• Feed barley +$15 ($344 – $354/t). Barley is still priced at close to wheat and hence not attractive compared to wheat or coastal sorghum.
• Corn +$0 ($320 – $330/t), Local corn crops coming into play now but prices up driven by factors from Downs harvest. Corn can be blended with other grains for cows or fed as the main ingredient.
• Sorghum +$5 ($278 – $288/t). Sorghum prices stronger based on higher global corn prices. Sorghum is also available out of paddocks from Wee Waa and Narrabri.
• Growing season for summer feed extended in both regions, but grain very expensive now.
• Best option to use any coastal grain that is stripped, which means personal contact with local grain growers.
• Feed still growing well, with Kikuyu green and fresh.

• Fodder of higher quality is extremely hard to source locally and most supply regions are also struggling to source fodder.
• Good paddock feed availability is putting the handbrake on demand, although there is consistent enquiry from the cattle market as they start weaning and also from the hobby farm market. Prices are remaining steady and we don’t anticipate much movement in the short term.
• Cereal Hay – Steady ($240-$260): There is very little available locally.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady ($280-$330): There should be one more cut before winter slows production. Supply will be tight during the peak season this year. Supply is particularly tight for small squares which are trading at $12/bale.
• Pasture Hay – -$10 – ($150-$170): The quality and supply are low; therefore if we see a cooler winter it will quickly become hard to source pasture hay locally.

• After a start to seeding in mid April, most farmers have stopped seeding till they get another rain.
• Forbes May rainfall: 5mm (Ave: 31mm). March rainfall was 79.8mm.
• YTD: 168mm (Ave: 177mm). 2012 rainfall 561.8mm against average of 504.3mm.
• SFW wheat +$10 ($267 – $277/t). The supply of old crop feed grains is harder to locate.
• F1 barley +$10 ($226 – $236/t), Barley prices are down based on lower exporter bids at Port Kembla – but growers not necessarily selling at these lower levels.
• Corn -$0 ($320 – $330/t). New crop supplies now coming on stream.
• Sorghum +$10 ($329-$339/t). Sorghum prices less competitive with other feed grains out on the central plains.
• Grain prices up again. Concerns for incoming grain season.
• As a consequence buyers are attempting to increase grain stocks held prior to processing.
• Growers and country merchants have held back stock on offer hoping for price increases.

• Very low fodder reserves and declining paddock feed locally is increasing demand through the central west. A price rise for lucerne was recorded this week as a result. There is a strong indication that a fodder shortage is imminent in the central west, affecting both local buyers, and buyers from further afield who source hay from the region.
• Cereal hay – Steady ($220+): There is no stock available locally in large squares. Cereal hay in small squares is in very short supply but trading at $8/bale.
• Lucerne –+$10 -($300-$330): Competition for lucerne hay is increasing between the chaff and livestock buyers as supplies start to run low. Good quality small square bales are steady at around $10/bale.
• Straw – Steady ($115-$135): The Central West is not traditionally a big area for straw and there is not a huge supply.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($145-$155) – Low grade pasture hay is being snapped up by the livestock market for cheap forage where it is available. Supply is very limited as it is not a regular market for the region. There is a consistent trade of high quality clover hay to the horse industry around the Orange region paying around $8/bale for small squares.

• No rain in the last week for Bega.
• Bega May rainfall total: 1mm (Ave: 50mm). March rainfall 17.2mm.
• YTD: 195mm (Ave: 318mm). 2012 rainfall 844.2mm against average of 654.1mm.
• SFW wheat +$10 ($305-315/t); little feed grade wheat on offer as ASW and APW become the default supply for wheat, where milling competition comes into play, both at Port Kembla and Sydney markets.
• Feed barley -$12 ($266 – $276/t); a wide discount to wheat, but supplies dwindling in southern NSW, so reaching further north via Riverina merchants.
• Triticale +$5 ($299 – $309/t); Triticale is currently trading on par with wheat with some included in rations coming from Victoria.
• Oats +$20 ($275 – $285/t). Very strong demand for sheep feeding on Southern Tablelands and now too expensive for use in dairy rations.
• Conditions are very dry in both the southern tablelands and southern slopes.
• Eastern Riverina waiting for rain for any further grain seeding.
• Barley from Temora and above is now moving to southern markets as Victorian barley availability tightens.
• Cows still strip grazing summer feed corn crops, some silage making for winter use.
• Hill paddocks making little growth but still green unlike the dry and dusty tablelands conditions

• Suppliers on the Riverina are struggling with dry conditions and very tight fodder supplies. Prices are starting to rise now due to competition locally and from other regions.
• There seems to be reasonable stocks of silage in the Bega which has not been as dry as other areas through summer and autumn.
• Cereal Hay – +$20 ($220- $260): Prices have increased with the lack of supply available. Buyers are looking to source lower grade cereal hay to reduce costs; however it is extremely hard to find.
• Lucerne –+$50 -($300-$350): Demand has increased from the livestock sector due to the dry conditions in nearby areas away from the coast. Local cuts have been excellent quality since Christmas, although supply is very low. Small squares $10/bale.
• Straw – Steady ($140-180): There wasn’t a lot of straw made in the supplying regions and now there is strong competition from other sectors. High prices are reflecting the lack of supply.

• Tatura May rainfall: 1mm (Ave: 45mm). March rainfall 35.6mm.
• YTD: 87mm (Ave: 183mm). 2012 rainfall was 497.4mm against average of 490.7mm
• SFW feed wheat +$25 ($278 – $288/t).
• F1 barley +$20 ($254 – $264/t). Barley currently compares with wheat in the ration.
• Triticale +$10 ($260 – $270/t). Low grain protein but not competitive against wheat and barley at these prices. Pig and poultry producers were buying triticale at parity with wheat.
• Feed oats +$5 ($222 – $232/t), prices still too expensive compared to other grades for energy use.
• Dry conditions have become more serious. Croppers unable to continue sowing.
• Sheep and beef producers in market for both grain oats and fodder.
• Shortage of wheat and barley held on farms, or by country merchants.
• Current wheat prices are back up to harvest time values.
• Barley values this week are $20 over harvest prices.
• Feed from irrigated pasture still good grazing but too early to graze irrigated crops.

• There is very limited new season fodder available for trading around the Murray Valley and GV. Any good quality product is sought after but prices are high.
• Weather damaged cereal hay still on hand from the 2010 floods is in demand as a cheaper fodder source. Wimmera and North Central Vic are becoming very low in stock and it is increasingly hard to source from anywhere in the state.
• Rain now is unlikely to have an immediate impact on hay prices but may result in some more fodder coming onto the market as growers are keeping reserves for their own use and preparing for drought.
• Cereal hay – steady -$215-$250 –Where high grade stock is available growers are generally not willing to move on price. Buyers are searching for cheaper, lower grade fodder but it is scarcely available.
• Lucerne hay – +$40 – $250-$300 – Supply is becoming very low and will not be replenished now until spring. There is variation in price depending on quality but most trading activity is between $240-$280 on farm.
• Straw – Steady – $100-$110 – There is very limited straw available that isn’t under contract. Mushrooms and composters are chasing product and exporters are also competing in this tight market.
• Vetch – Steady – $220-$250 – Most vetch supplied into the region comes from the Mallee and supply is getting very low. It is unlikely supply will hold through winter.

• Another dry week. Grain demand rising rapidly for feeding livestock.
• Sale May rainfall: 1mm (Ave: 52mm). March rainfall 36.0mm (Ave: 49.3mm).
• YTD: 150mm (Ave: 238mm), 2012 rainfall was 621.8mm against an average of 598.7mm.
• SFW wheat +$15 ($305 – $315/t). Main grain sources remain the Riverina, southern Wimmera and North East. Current relative pricing suggests an advantage to barley vs wheat, but many prefer to feed wheat going into winter for energy.
• Barley +$20 ($288 – $298/t).
• Triticale +$5 ($293 – $303/t). Triticale followed wheat prices up. Where grain feeding rates are high some nutritionists favour a partial triticale inclusion.
• Feed oats +$5 ($228 – $238/t). Stronger demand for sheep feeding in northern Vic and Southern NSW
• Dry conditions in northern Victoria have suddenly become more serious.
• Growers could still sow wheat into July if they had to.
• But while their growing season is in doubt they have ceased selling from farm stocks.
• And there are less of these than normal, as so many growers took the harvest cash prices

• There is a lot of hay moving into the region, demand is remaining strong but the supply is very low right across the state.
• Buyers are becoming concerned with the fodder shortages and where supply will come from if the dry weather continues. It is unlikely pressure on supply will ease now before spring and this is reflected in the high prices reported this week.
• Cereal Hay – +$50 ($280 – $300) – Whilst buyers were able to secure some cereal hay this week the supply seems to have dried up. There is very little available now right across southern Australia. Any cereal hay of good quality is unlikely to get delivered to Gippsland for less than $300/t.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($300-$350) – Local suppliers have had most of their final cut bought straight behind the baler. The usual supply regions are also low in stock. Supply is very tight and unlikely to last the winter.
• Vetch Steady – Steady – ($300+) – There is very little available.
• Pasture – Steady – ($165-$175) –Very short supply across Southern Australia, including the usual local supply of round bale pasture which has been cleaned out.

• 15mm in first week of May, but still need more rain to break the season open.
• Port Fairy May rainfall: 15mm (Ave: 64mm). March rainfall 24.6mm (Ave: 38.5).
• YTD: 101mm (Ave: 223mm). 2012 rainfall was 764.6mm against average of 711.6mm.
• SFW1 wheat +15 ($268 – $278/t), Wheat prices up on the back of firmer global prices and lower A$.
• Feed barley +$20 ($253 – $263/t), Barley prices much firmer this week. The discount to wheat is $15 a tonne, but more wheat will come into play as winter approaches.
• Triticale prices +$5 ($267 – $277/t). Triticale is priced equal to wheat due to higher protein triticale from Mallee region.
• Feed oat +$5 ($221 – $231/t); at discount to wheat oats may fit into autumn finishing feeds for weaner steers being prepared for market.
• Grain prices up strongly as dry conditions become more serious in all grain production regions of Victoria.
• Conditions are much drier than dairy farmers and grain growers would like.
• It has been too dry to seed canola, growers’ most profitable crop.
• Not a lot of grower stored grain coming to market – they are waiting on a break to the season

• Supplies are extremely tight and prices are increasing with some big jumps recorded this week. Hay traders and buyers are under pressure to find fodder, further compounded by low supply across most of the country.
• Despite a few falls of rain a substantial break has not yet occurred. Cooler soil temperatures will inhibit any pasture growth now so when the region does receive a break demand will not ease in the short term.
• Cereal – +$45- ($240-$280): It is extremely difficult to source cereal hay at the moment and most hay in storage is under contract. Prices increases are indicative of the very tight supply situation.
• Lucerne – +$50- ($300-$330): The usual suppliers of lucerne from North Central Victoria and South East South Australia are very low in stock. Prices are quickly rising as buyers attempt to secure high protein feed. The horse industry is still active closer to the regional centres and small squares are trading at $12/bale or more.
• Straw – +$35 – ($120-$150): Straw is starting to gain a lot interest from buyers. Supplies locally were thought to be quite good but with stocks moving now and a clearer focus on the level of demand it appears there will be a short supply. Some growers are hanging onto excess straw for their own use on farm as concern grows for a drought through winter.
• Pasture hay –+$40 ($220 – $260): Pasture hay is in short supply and very difficult to source across the state.

• 6mm to kick off May, but much more needed.
• Mount Gambier May rainfall: 6mm (Ave: 71mm). March rainfall 23.4mm (Ave: 35.3mm).
• YTD: 97mm (Ave: 214mm). 2012 rainfall was 645.4mm against average of 711.7mm.
• Wheat +$5 ($275 – $285/t); Wheat prices higher this week from higher global prices and as supplies close to the demand region get tighter.
• Feed barley +$5 ($250 -$260/t), at a $25 discount to wheat, barley is again competitive with wheat.
• Triticale +$10 ($270 – $280/t); Needs to be cheaper than wheat to have a place. Mallee origin triticale is priced higher than our table prices because of higher grain protein.
• Oat prices +$10 ($221 – $231/t), more interest in oats from sheep and wool producers. Oats too expensive for its feed value to cattle.

• Casual hay traders (eg. Livestock producers) are holding onto excess fodder making sure they have enough for winter themselves. Some forecast rain over the weekend may see a little more hay come onto the market from these growers.
• Supply across the region is very tight and prices are creeping up. With no relief for fodder supplies now until spring it is unlikely prices will ease.
• Cereal – Steady – ($200-$220): Cereal hay is becoming harder to source. Buyers are actively seeking lower grade hay, however it is in lowest supply through the region. Most stock seen in sheds and storage is under contract.
• Lucerne – +$25 – ($270-$330): Supply is becoming very low through the Naracoorte, Keith regions, with prices firm around $300/t. Growers with excess Lucerne are considering their own needs for winter now before trading hay given the very short supply available and the dry conditions.
• Straw – Steady ($90-$120): Trading has picked up with more interest in lower grade cheaper fodder. There is little in excess throughout SA.
• Pasture – +$10 ($175-195): Pasture has been snapped up early by the livestock buyers. Pasture hay is becoming harder to source as the dry conditions have increased demand for both pasture hay and silage.

• Farmers still nervous about lack of rain. 1mm for first week of may.
• Murraybridge May rainfall: 2mm (Ave: 35mm).
• YTD: 59mm (Ave: 117mm).
• Wheat +$4 ($270 – $280/t). Wheat prices higher after global volatility and dry start for Sth East Australia..
• Feed barley +$10 ($240 – $250/t), while prices are up, the discount to wheat is making barley a more attractive feeding option for cows than wheat, but Middle East trade also competes for volume ex Adelaide.
• Triticale +$0 ($270 – $280/t). Merchants report very tight supplies north and east of Adelaide and are buying if any offered.
• Feed oats +$10 ($228 – $238/t). Tight supply for oats in Adelaide region, supported by hay markets and general preference for higher value crops by grain growers. More buying for paddock feeding of sheep.
• The instability of grain prices over the last few weeks has both buyers and sellers at quite a range apart at moment.

• Some rain in the past few weeks has helped kick start planting but it is rapidly drying out and more rain would be very welcome now.
• Demand has been steady and with the dry conditions and cooler temperatures some buyers are being proactive to secure quality hay now for later in the year. Graziers and some dairies are the most active buyers.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($220-$250) – Supply is tight with most local growers already sold out. Where there is cereal hay available, quality is general very good and therefore prices are remaining high.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($250-$300) – Stocks are being sourced from further afield as there is very little around central SA. Low supply is due to limited acreages and poor results from dryland lucerne this year.
• Straw – Steady ($70-$120) – Any straw on farm is likely to be under contract but demand from the domestic market is fairly quiet at this stage.
• Vetch – Steady ($260-$270) – There is very little around but vetch has been sought after as a high protein fodder source. Where available growers are asking top dollar for good quality vetch hay.

• Good 30mm fall on 2 May, so ideal timing if the rains cover the grain regions.
• Bunbury May rainfall: 56mm (Ave: 92mm). March rainfall 37.4mm (Ave: 14.2mm).
• YTD: 119mm (Ave: 161mm). 2012 rainfall was 766.0mm against an average of 727.8mm.
• Wheat +$0 ($305 – $315/t).
• Feed barley +$0 ($290 – $300/t).
• Triticale +$0 ($290 – $300/t), Triticale is competitive with feed wheat at these prices. Dairy farmers are seeking to buy triticale at a discount to wheat, but not always available.
• Oats +$00 ($215 – $225/t). The current demand is from sheep producers for their winter feeding needs. At this discount to wheat, oats must have some place in domestic livestock feeding (probably as minor inclusions in home mixes).
• After big price rises in late April, grain market in WA was steady last week
• The good rains – 47 mm at Busselton over Monday and Tuesday will secure pasture growth till spring. Bunbury 47 mm, Harvey 42. Geraldton zone grain areas had 20 to 30 mm and are sowing now. Central wheat belt had 15 and less to the east. Great Southern had 20 to 30 m and will make start to seeding.
• Don’t be surprised if the only wheat on offer to you at times over winter is milling grade wheat
• With the small harvest last year not much tonnage is still in grower hands.
• More selling activity perhaps, when growers are finished seeding .

• After an early break and more rain expected to move through late this week, the season has favoured growers, who are getting ready to sow long winter varieties in mid to late May,
• Demand is steady in the region with lucerne and chaff particularly sought after by hobby farmers and the horse industry.
• Cereal hay – +$20 ($170-$250): There has been an oversupply of high grade new season hay so far and could be some carry over. Competition for lower grades is pushing the price up.
• Lucerne – +$10 ($200-220) – Demand for Lucerne has increased, supply is running low and chaff makers are active buyers of premium quality hay. The main domestic activity is from local horse markets and prices are remaining firm.
• Straw – Steady ($90-$120): There is some lower grade straw around that didn’t make export grade after being rained on before baling. The feed mills, usually active buyers at this time of year, have slowed purchasing due to the easing demand for mixed feed rations to support the live export sector.
• Pasture – Steady ($110 – $130): There seems to be good stocks of pasture hay available to trade.

• Showers over late April/early May mean that autumn growth has resumed and should now continue till December 2013 at least.
• Smithton May rainfall: 18mm (Ave: 79mm). March rainfall 57.2mm (Ave: 50.4mm).
• YTD: 172mm (Ave: 265mm), 2012 rainfall was 905.2mm against an average of 901.0mm.
• Wheat +$15 ($375 – $385/t). Red wheats being used, both from local and mainland sources.
• Feed barley +$20 ($360 – $370/t). The price of feed barley is competitive versus wheat, but expect to see more wheat used as winter arrives
• Triticale prices +$10 ($356 – $366/t). Mainland triticale is on offer. To be useful it must be cheaper than wheat, but mainland pig producers seem to at the head of the queue.
• Oats prices +$6 ($295 – $305/t). Imported oats are going to horses and chicken meat rations, but market stronger as autumn sheep demand kicks in.
• Leap in grain prices due to dry mainland conditions. Not likely to see much relief till South East Aust gets a decent rain for planting.
• Shortage of feed grade wheats means lower wheat grades ,including red wheats are trading equal to the milling wheat grades.

• There is a definite shortage of supply in Tasmania leading into winter. Ryegrass straw is available and some dairies are using this low cost product for roughage.
• Silage stocks on farm are low and there is some demand for trading silage. It is recommended that trading be done on a $/t DM basis as opposed to per bale.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($205-$225): Stocks are very low due to lack of production for fodder and high competition in the grain sector.
• Lucerne – +$10 – ($300+): Lucerne supplies are limited; silage in particular is in high demand but not easy to source.
• Straw – Steady – ($135-$145): Given the dry conditions the quality of straw is high and is starting to move now, with demand at this time of year coming from mainland mushroom growers.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($160-$180): The supply of pasture hay is just not available this year, especially good quality pasture hay.