Grain – Hay Report – 23 May 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• A mixed bag for grain prices in Australia this last week. Generally a flat market, but there was some price weakness (about $5 lower) in parts of Victoria in expectation of rains through the cropping regions. This did not eventuate (only 5-10mm through the Mallee-Wimmera) so the caution about 2013 supply remains.
• One of the major risks for global grain supply for 2013 was removed this week with the US farmers getting back on track with planting of the corn crop. It is now over 80% planted. The question now turns to how it will yield – which will play out according to the weather over the next 90 or so days. The lower A$ (now under 0.97 versus US$) and continuing dry conditions for most of South-East Australia is keeping local grain markets firm.
• There is still plenty of weather between now and when crops are in the bin, but the world is still poised for an all-time record wheat and corn crop. There are still about 100 days to go, but if they do deliver, global grain prices are expected to fall in the second half of 2013.
• Some of South-Eastern Australia received rains in the last week (mainly SA and patchy in Vic), but the need for a decent autumn break is still required to see planting completed in Victoria and southern NSW.
• The extremely dry inland conditions up north for the cattle industry has created very strong feedgrain demand and bulging cattle feedlots through NSW and Queensland. This demand is expected to persist through the balance of 2013 and is currently keeping local grain values over exporter bids.
• For the dairy regions, if you are close to a grain growing region (say Darling Downs, Central NSW, Northern and Western Victoria, SE south Australia) then you can expect spot wheat prices in the $270-300/tonne range, whereas regions which “import” grains (North Coast NSW, Atherton Tableland, Bega Valley, Gippsland) are more likely to see grains in the $300-350 range to cover the freight costs ($350-400 for Tasmania). If all the stars line up around the world for good crops between now and October 2013, a price drop of $50 by Christmas would not be a surprise – but we can’t bank on this because there are too many variables to say it will definitely happen.
• The range between buying and selling ideas will be within a larger range than usual until the weather gives us more certainty about what the season has in store. It is apparent that some growers are holding remaining grain (and there is less in farmers’ hands this year than usual) until they feel confident of the next season.
• The most important question for dairy farmers is not trying to pick the bottom, but to make a start on covering some of their forward grain needs if the quoted prices allow them to make a margin, taking into account the expected milk pricing that the industry awaits from mid-2013.

National Summary – Hay:

• As the temperatures cool off and pasture growth is becoming restricted concern over fodder supply for winter is increasing. In most of the key dairy regions across the country fodder is becoming very difficult to source of any type and quality.
• As buyers become more desperate to secure fodder for winter prices are still rising. There is a lot of movement in the market, particularly in southern Australia.
• There are stocks of good quality cereal held by exporters in Western Australia, some of this product may become available to the domestic market in the coming months, however freight costs to the east coast will be very high.
• We are hearing more and more reports of both buyers and sellers getting burnt in fodder transactions as the market becomes tighter. It is important to ensure that both buyers and sellers look out for themselves by using written contracts for all fodder transactions, especially in current circumstances.
• Buyers on the North Coast of NSW are urged to consider their fodder requirements for winter now. Supply is very low locally and right throughout NSW and Southern QLD. Trying to source fodder at the last minute will be a challenge.
• Vetch is in very limited supply and trading at over $300/t delivered where it can be sourced. It is worth noting that dry sowing of vetch in the Wimmera-Mallee has commenced but rainfall has been very low through that region. This gives an indication that vetch crops planned for hay in 2013 may perform poorly and be low yielding. Therefore a vetch shortage into 2014 may be likely as well.
• Fodder is already in short supply and there will be very little, if any carry over fodder into 2014. Buyers are urged to consider their fodder needs for 2014 and initiate discussions with their suppliers to arrange demand. A fodder shortage in 2014 is likely if the season does not improve heading into spring.
• Most hay in storage is under contract; however some lower grades of hay and straw are still available. Again buyers are advised to source their requirements as soon as possible.
• Cereal hay and vetch are in shortest supply in the eastern states. Reporting this week has indicated that vetch supplies will not hold on much longer and cereal hay is in very short supply.
• As fodder is moved greater distances freight is starting to have a big impact on price. This is reflected in this week’s price increases which are fairly even across different fodder types.
• Demand for hay from feedlots in QLD is starting to increase as Western QLD and areas in the Northern Territory have stayed extremely dry, with station owners opting to destock rather than freight hay.
• Supply of fodder is a particular concern for South East, SA, South West Victoria, Tasmania and Gippsland. In these areas freight is the biggest cost as local growers are struggling to meet the increasing demand for fodder.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

Notes: Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.

Notes: Hay prices are delivered, GST exclusive based on shedded hay without weather damage, of good quality and colour. It should be noted there is a wide variation in quality for hay, so prices are indicative for a mid-range product.

• Mareeba May rainfall: 5.8 (Ave: 7.2mm).
• YTD: 689.4mm (Ave: 715.9). Rainfall for this time last year was 722mm.
• A few showers this week, so summer forage crops continue to provide good energy and bulk for cows, whether strip grazed or as cut and carry to cows in confinement.
• Wheat: $+0 ($370 to $380). CQ wheat to be sown over next month.
• Barley: $ +0 ($418 to $428), new season barley supplies from CQ very limited. Too expensive in the ration compared to local corn/sorghum and wheat.
• Corn prices $ +0 ($373 to $383). Local tablelands corn now available. Look out for any weather damaged / stained corn at a discount.
• Sorghum: $ +0 ($327 to $337) Prices firm for sorghum from old crop from Central Queensland as we await incoming CQ harvest prospects for May/June. Around $100 freight from CQ so if local sorghum available, consider a share of the freight savings.
• Choices for feed grains remains between local corn and sorghum. Any local sorghum that appears would be worth bidding for.
• Good feed from sown summer crops and opportunities for silage making.

• With station weaning underway or nearing completion and a very dry season away from the coast, movement of fodder to the cattle buyers out west and in the gulf country has remained steady for most of the year. Local demand has also been consistent.
• There has been some demand from southern QLD for pasture hay given the fodder shortage in that region.
• Pasture Hay – Steady ($255-275): Supplies of hay are lower than usual, after a dry wet season; however the quality is good as baling conditions have been favourable

• Toowoomba May rainfall: 37.6mm (Ave: 36mm).
• YTD: 791.8mm (Ave: 332.2mm), compared to 325.6mm this time last year.
• A saving rain for southern Queensland winter crops this last week: Rockhampton 70+mm, SE Downs 20+mm, and 100mm in places further inland.
• Central Queensland was also receiving steady rain and wheat sowings will be in full swing.
• Wheat: $ 0 ($316 to $326). Through 2013, ASW wheat will be used for stockfeed, including dairy cows.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($308 to $318). Any barley available being bought by feedlots.
• Corn $ +0 ($320 to $330). Main corn crop harvest under way with some stained corn coming through and not making gritting grade.
• Sorghum: $ +0 ($288 to $298). Our prices are for export sorghum quality. Check with nutritionist re sprouting, but SORX at $40-50 discount will be best buy if the quality is ok.
• Late sown sorghum harvest continues as grain moisture comes down. Expected to continue till July, but not a big sorghum crop.
• Dairy farmers are now having to buy milling grade wheat for cows.
• Sorghum is viable alternative but best if heat treated.

• Fodder stocks are low and being sourced from other regions to meet local demand. Freight is becoming a big consideration in the purchased fodder price as a result.
• Demand is highest from lot feeders and livestock producers out west who are having a very dry season. Some buyers are now looking to other fodder sources such as sugarcane and cotton trash.
• Winter cereal crops (barley, oats and wheat) destined for hay will come on the market in late July/August and provide some relief to tight fodder supplies locally.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($300-$330): Cereal hay is in particularly short supply nationally. Small squares of last season cereal hay are trading locally to hobby farmers and the horse industry at $7/ bale.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($400-$450): Lucerne in large squares is hard to source in the region, and is becoming a growing concern across the country. The horse and hobby markets are the most active buyers presently and paying $12-15/bale for premium quality Lucerne where it is available.
• Straw – Steady: ($120-$150): Feedlots active buyers. The quality is good but there isn’t a lot of reserve stock available locally.
• Pasture – +30: ($180-$200): Baling has now finished for summer pastures. There is strong demand from lot feeders and station owners for pasture hay which is driving the price up. Buyers are attempting to secure enough ration for winter.

• Lismore May rainfall total: 51.8mm (Ave: 107.9mm). March rainfall 131.2mm
• YTD: 781mm (Ave: 616.2mm), compared to 717mm this time last year.
• No rain on north coast or mid north coast this week to Wednesday morning.
• Great, crop-saving rains for southern Qld winter crops in last week. May ease some of the price pressure in months to come.
• Only grains trading are wheat and sorghum.
• SFW Wheat: $ +0 ($363 to $373). Sorghum much more competitive with shot sorghum now being available at discount of up to $40 a tonne. Only milling wheat available.
• Feed Barley: $ +25 ($379 to $389). Barley is priced above wheat and hence not attractive compared to wheat or coastal sorghum. Strong feedlot demand.
• Corn $ +15 ($355 to $365). Local corn crops coming into play now but prices up driven by factors from Downs harvest. Corn can be blended with other grains for cows or fed as the main ingredient.
• Sorghum: $ +10 ($313 to $323). Sorghum prices stronger based on high local feedlot demand.
• Best option to use any coastal grain that is stripped, which means personal contact with local grain growers.
• Feed still growing well, with Kikuyu green and fresh.

• Price rises in the coming weeks are likely in this region when buyers try to secure winter feed supply.
• Fodder is in short supply nationally and after a poor hay and silage season along the North Coast, local stocks are low. Buyers yet to source their winter fodder are encouraged to do so promptly. Winter supply is a concern for this region.
• Good paddock feed availability put the handbrake on demand which has been fairly slow from the dairy industry. There is consistent enquiry from the cattle producers as they start weaning and also from the hobby farmers, trying to secure extra forage for winter.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($260-$300): There is very little available locally and nationally.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($300-$350): Very little quality shedded Lucerne available locally, however some green chop is being traded. Supply will be tight during the peak season this year. Supply is particularly tight for small squares which are trading at $12/bale.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($150-$170): Pasture hay in round bales has been in production over the last few weeks. There has been some enquiry from livestock buyers. The quality and supply are low; therefore if we see a cooler winter it will quickly become hard to source pasture hay locally.

• Forbes May rainfall: 23mm (Ave: 31mm). March rainfall was 79.8mm.
• YTD: 185.6mm (Ave: 177mm), compared to 365.8 this time last year.
• Generally 10-15mm through the Central West and up to 20mm in the North-West was very welcome this week.
• Falls were more in the 5-10mm range as we move south to the Riverina – barely enough to keep the planting of crops going.
• SFW Wheat: $ +0 ($277 to $287). Only milling grades now available.
• ·      F1 Barley: $ +3 ($249 to $259). Barley more available in central west than northern areas. But now tightly held.
• Corn $ +20 ($380 to $390). New crop supplies now coming on stream.
• Sorghum $ +14 ($355 to $365). Sorghum prices less competitive with other feed grains out on the central plains.
• Grain prices firm on continuing concerns for incoming grain season.
• More wheat is scheduled for June sowing and not too late for good yields.
• Outcome of this week’s rains keenly awaited to see if growers will sell any remaining on-farm stocks.

• There is very strong demand for fodder through the central west particularly for Lucerne as it is one of the few regions with limited supply still available. With declining paddock feed locally and interest from as far away as South West Victoria and South East QLD there is a strong indication that already depleted fodder supplies will not hold on.
• Local growers are giving priority to their regular customers before supplying new customers from other regions.
• Cereal hay – Steady ($250-$300): There is very little supply locally in large squares. Cereal hay in small squares is in very short supply but trading at $8/bale to horse and hobby farm buyers.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($330-$360): Competition for lucerne hay is increasing between the chaff and livestock buyers as supplies start to run low, prices are reported to be steady around $300t on farm. Good quality small square bales are steady at around $10/bale.
• Straw – Steady ($115-$135): The Central West is not traditionally a big area for straw and there is not a huge supply.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($145-$155) – Low grade pasture hay is being snapped up by the livestock market for cheap forage where it is available. Supply is very limited as it is not a regular market for the region.

• Bega May rainfall total: 28.2 (Ave: 50mm). March rainfall 17.2mm.
• YTD: 222mm (Ave: 318mm), compared to 567mm this time last year.
• A dry week for Bega valley to Wednesday morning.
• Most feed for cows coming from forage corn on flats after along irrigation season.
• Corn dried off, but still good grazing controlled by temporary electric fences.
• SFW Wheat $ +0 ($315 to $325). Little feed grade wheat on offer as ASW and APW become the default supply for wheat, where milling competition comes into play, both at Port Kembla and Sydney markets.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($276 to $286), a wide discount to wheat, but supplies dwindling in southern NSW, and competition from Victoria, further north for feedlots and container exports to China
• Triticale $ +0 ($304 to $314). Triticale is currently trading below wheat with some included in rations coming from Victoria.
• Oats: $ +0 ($285 to $295). Very strong demand for sheep feeding on Southern Tablelands and now too expensive for use in dairy rations.
• A very good rain through northern NSW this week will help winter crop prospects. Not enough rain yet for southern NSW.

• Supply to the region is coming from Central West NSW, the Southern Tablelands and the Riverina. There is strong competition in these supplying regions from sheep and cattle graziers which is driving price up.
• Available paddock feed is getting low and there is concern over fodder supply for winter to this region.
• Cereal Hay – +$20 – ($280- $320): Prices have increased again as supply tightens across the region and fodder is being freighted longer distances.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($350-$400): Buyers are searching further afield to source lucerne. In supplying regions demand is rapidly diminishing and there is increasing competition from the livestock sector due to the dry conditions.
• Straw – Steady ($140-180): There wasn’t a lot of straw made in the supplying regions and now there is strong competition from other sectors. High prices are reflecting the lack of supply.

• Tatura May rainfall: 20mm (Ave: 45mm). March rainfall 35.6mm.
• YTD: 111mm (Ave: 183mm), compared to 291.6mm this time last year.
• The expected rain this week for the Mallee-Wimmera was generally disappointing – 5-10mm and much more needed to establish the winter crops.
• SFW feed Wheat: $ -10 ($268 to $278).
• F1 Barley: $ -5 ($249 to $259). Barley currently compares with wheat in the ration.
• Triticale: $ -3 ($257 to $267) Pig and poultry producers were buying triticale at parity with wheat.
• Feed Oats: $ +0 ($222 to $232). Sheep and horse feed only at these prices
• Sheep and beef producers in market for both grain oats and fodder.
• Some traders offered lower grain prices during the week in expectation of a drop after the forecast rains.
• Unlikely to see grain prices come down significantly till all Victorian grain areas have their winter crops established.
• Some herds calve a proportion in April for winter milk production but most cows in herds now are late in their lactation.
• Difficult decision whether to pay these high prices for grain to maintain milk litres, or whether to dry them off early, before next calving in July.

• Supplies of fodder both locally and in the major supply regions to the GV are very low. Fodder in storage is generally committed, as growers are looking after their regular customers.
• Most fodder growers sold out of stock months earlier than usual, in early to mid-autumn, and availability of fodder coming into winter is now a serious concern for buyers.
• Cereal hay – +$15-($280-$300) –Cereal hay is very hard to find anywhere in the country, reflected by another price rise this week. Where there are very limited stocks, growers are getting a lot of enquiries indicating demand remains very high. Buyers are searching for cheaper, lower grade fodder but it is scarcely available.
• Lucerne hay – +$20 – ($300-$320) – Supply is now very low there are no reports of uncommitted lucerne locally. Lucerne is being sourced in small quantities from as far away as SA and Central West NSW. These regions do not have large quantities and regular customers are being looked after by these growers, before new customers are considered. Small squares are also hard to source and are trading at around $14/bale on farm.
• Straw – +$10 – ($110-$150) – There is very limited straw available that isn’t under contract and prices are now sitting around $100t on farm.
• Vetch – steady – ($300+) – There are no reports of vetch trading under $300/t delivered and supplies are very low nationally. It is worth noting that dry sowing of vetch in the Mallee has commenced but rainfall has been scarce. This gives an early indication that vetch crops planned for hay in 2013 may perform poorly and be low yielding. Therefore a vetch shortage into 2014 may be likely.

• Sale May rainfall: 10mm (Ave: 52mm). March rainfall 36.0mm (Ave: 49.3mm).
• YTD: 160mm (Ave: 238mm), compared to 254.8 this time last year.
• The expected rain this week for the Mallee-Wimmera was generally disappointing – 5-10mm and much more needed to establish the winter crops.
• SFW Wheat: $ -10 ($307 to $317). Main grain sources remain the Riverina, southern Wimmera and North East. Current relative pricing suggests an advantage to barley vs wheat, but many prefer to feed wheat going into winter for energy.
• Barley: $ -5 ($293 to $303). Most Gippsland dairy farmers have been on wheat for long time.
• Triticale: $ -3 ($295 to $305). A little more triticale on offer following rains in NE Vic.
• Feed Oats: $ 0 ($233 to $243) Stronger demand for sheep feeding and for the horse trade. Expect to stay firm while there is demand from Riverina sheep farms.
• Much of the Victorian wheat was sold to major traders last harvest. Farmer and merchant stocks are lower than normal and are holding stocks tightly still.
• Some traders offered lower grain prices during the week in expectation of a drop after the forecast rains.
• Unlikely to see grain prices come down significantly till all Victorian grain areas have their winter crops established.

• Fodder of all types is being shipped into the region with demand remaining strong; however the supply is very low in the key supplying regions and is a growing concern for traders and buyers.
• It is unlikely pressure on supply will ease now before spring as parts of the region are still waiting for a decent rainfall to boost pasture growth.
• Cereal Hay – Steady- ($300-$320) –. There is very little available now right across southern Australia. Any cereal hay of good quality is unlikely to get delivered to Gippsland for less than $300/t.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($300-$350) – The usual supply regions are also struggling for lucerne supply which is extremely low nationally. Most reserves of Lucerne now are committed to regular customers.
• Vetch – Steady – ($300+) – There is very little available nationally. Vetch supplies are likely to be cleaned out by mid-winter, and with a poor start to the main vetch growing regions it is very likely there will be a vetch shortage in 2014. Regular buyers are encouraged to secure their vetch hay early, behind the baler in spring this year to avoid missing out in 2014.
• Straw – ($200-$220) – Straw is now being brought in from other parts of the state. Straw is trading at $100/t on farm in most regions; freight back to Gippsland is adding significant cost for buyers.
• Pasture – +$20 – ($200-$220) –Very short supply of any grade pasture hay across Southern Australia, including the usual local supply of round bale pasture which has been cleaned out.

• Port Fairy May rainfall: 141mm (Ave: 64mm). March rainfall 24.6mm (Ave: 38.5).
• YTD: 227mm (Ave: 223mm), compared to 223 this time last year.
• The expected rain this week for the Mallee-Wimmera was generally disappointing – 5-10mm and much more needed to establish the winter crops.
• Falls of 15-25mm was ideal for local Western District crops.
• SFW1 Wheat: $ -10 ($273 to $283). Only milling grades available now.
• Feed Barley: $ -5 ($253 to $263). The discount to wheat is $15 a tonne, but more wheat will come into play as winter approaches.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($275 to $285). Triticale is in demand, but only at a discount to wheat.
• Feed oat $ +0 ($226 to $236). Good rains through western plains cropping areas and oat prices may ease as confidence in new crop improves.
• Some traders offered lower grain prices during the week in expectation of a drop after the forecast rains.
• Unlikely to see grain prices come down significantly till all Victorian grain areas have their winter crops established.
• Not a lot of grower stored grain coming to market – they are waiting on a break to the season.

• Hay traders and buyers are under pressure to find fodder, with enquiries going as far away as Central West NSW and Central SA. Fodder is very difficult to source anywhere in Southern and Eastern Australia and the key supply regions are running low.
• Fodder growers are generally hanging onto stocks for regular customers; excess fodder has already been sold or is being retained for on farm use.
• There is still a steady supply of straw locally and in the Wimmera-Mallee.
• Cereal – Steady- ($250-$300): It is extremely difficult to source cereal hay at the moment and most hay in storage is under contract. Prices increases are indicative of the very tight supply situation.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$330): The usual suppliers of lucerne from North Central Victoria and South East South Australia are very low or completely out of stock. Prices are quickly rising as buyers attempt to secure high protein feed. The horse industry is still active closer to the regional centres and small squares are trading at $12-14/bale.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$150): Straw is starting to gain a lot interest from buyers. Supplies locally were thought to be quite good but with stocks moving now and a clearer focus on the level of demand it appears there will be a short supply. Some growers are hanging onto excess straw for their own use on farm as concern grows for a drought through winter.
• Pasture hay –Steady – ($220 – $260): Pasture hay is in short supply and very difficult to source across the state.

• Mount Gambier May rainfall: 58.6mm (Ave: 71mm). March rainfall 23.4mm (Ave: 35.3mm).
• YTD: 150.2mm (Ave: 214mm), compared to 170.2mm this time last year.
• All SE South Aust cropping regions have now received rains; some of the pressure is off.
• The expected rain this week for the Mallee-Wimmera was generally disappointing – only 5-10mm and much more needed to establish the winter crops.
• Wheat $ +5 ($288 to $298). Wheat prices higher this week from lower A$ and dry grain regions to the north. Some traders not even offering till the new season becomes more certain.
• Feed barley $ -5 ($245 to $255). At a $30 discount to wheat, barley is again competitive with wheat, but wheat will be in demand as winter approaches.
• Triticale $ -5 ($275 to $285), needs to be cheaper than wheat to have a place. Mallee origin triticale is priced higher than our table prices because of higher grain protein.
• Oat prices $ +0 ($221 to $231) more interest in oats from sheep and wool producers. Oats too expensive for its feed value to cattle.
• Victorian Mallee-Wimmera new season crop prospects still uncertain and supporting feed grains market

• Supply locally and throughout the main supply regions are very tight with prices are creeping up. There will be no relief for the usual fodder supplies now until spring when it is unlikely prices will ease.
• Cereal –Steady- ($250-$300): Cereal hay is becoming harder to source. Buyers are actively seeking lower grade hay; however it is in very low supply. Most stock seen in sheds and storage is under contract.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$330): Supply is becoming very low through the Naracoorte, Keith regions, with prices firm around $300/t. Growers with excess Lucerne are considering their own needs for winter now before trading hay given the very short supply available and the dry conditions.
• Straw – Steady ($90-$120): Trading has picked up with more interest in lower grade cheaper fodder. There is little in excess throughout SA.
• Pasture – Steady -($190-210): Pasture has been snapped up early by the livestock buyers. Pasture hay is becoming harder to source as the dry conditions have increased demand for both pasture hay and silage.

• Murray Bridge May rainfall: 29mm (Ave: 35mm).
• YTD: 85.9mm (Ave: 117mm).
• The expected rain this week for the Mallee-Wimmera was generally disappointing – 5-10mm and much more needed to establish the winter crops.
• SA grain regions generally got another good rain (except for Mallee), so crop prospects improving.
• Wheat $ +3 ($276 to $286). Wheat prices firmer after lower A$ and dry start for Vic-NSW
• Feed barley $ +10 ($246 to $256), The discount to wheat is making barley a more attractive feeding option for cows than wheat, but wheat demand will rise for winter feeding.
• Triticale $ +0 ($265 to $275). Triticale sellers have come forward noting feed wheat prices in SA are over exporter bids
• Feed oats $ +0 ($223 to $233). Oat prices may ease in coming weeks as paddock feed increases after the rains.
• The instability of grain prices over the last few weeks has both buyers and sellers at quite a range apart at moment.
• This region seems to be trading more on the dry situation in Victoria than on the local supply outlook.

• Prices remain high in the region and any fodder available is moving big distances to fill the supply shortage in Southern Australia. As a result fodder supply locally is getting very low. With Lucerne and vetch in very short supply.
• Cereal Hay – Steady- ($250-$300) –Where cereal hay is available, quality is very high however the quantities are low and most fodder in storage is already committed to regular domestic or export customers.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($300+) – Low supply is due to limited acreages and poor results from dryland Lucerne in SA this year. There appears to be no big quantities of Lucerne available anywhere on the domestic market.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$130) – Any straw on farm is likely to be under contract but demand from the domestic market is fairly quiet at this stage.
• Vetch – Steady ($300+) – Where available growers are asking top dollar for good quality vetch hay, there is very little now available, with reports of only one or two very small quantities as yet not committed, and there is no indication of vetch being sold for less than $250/t on farm.

• Bunbury May rainfall: 135.6mm (Ave: 92mm). March rainfall 37.4mm (Ave: 14.2mm).
• YTD: 198.4mm (Ave: 161mm), compared to 128.2mm this time last year.
• Dry through both the grain and dairy regions. The eastern wheat belt is facing a worrying situation with crops not coming through.
• Wheat: $ +0($303 to $313).
• Feed barley $ +0 ($290 to $300).
• Triticale $ +0 ($290 to $300). Triticale is competitive with feed wheat at these prices. Dairy farmers are seeking to buy triticale at a discount to wheat, but not always available.
• Oats +0 ($215 to $225). The current demand is from sheep producers for their winter feeding needs. At this discount to wheat, oats must have some place in domestic livestock feeding (probably as minor inclusions in home mixes).
• Grain market in WA was steady last week, with holders of grain being cautious and not offering till the new crop is assured.
• Don’t be surprised if the only wheat on offer to you at times over winter is milling grade wheat
• With the small harvest last year not much tonnage is still in grower hands.
• More selling activity perhaps, when growers are finished seeding.

• WA is one of the few locations nationally with some fodder reserves, particularly of cereal hay and straw. However a lot of the fodder in storage is committed.
• Lucerne hay is in short supply as which is due to production ceasing coming into winter.
• The season is looking promising so far with good rain favouring growers, who are getting ready to sow long winter varieties in mid to late May.
• Cereal hay – Steady – ($180-$250): There has been an oversupply of high grade new season hay and could be some carry over. There is competition for the lower grade hay which is pushing the price up.
• Lucerne – Steady ($400-$500) – Demand for Lucerne has increased, supply is running low and chaff mills are active buyers of premium quality hay. The main domestic activity is from local horse markets and prices are peaking at around $470/t on farm.
• Straw – Steady ($90-$120): There is some lower grade straw around that didn’t make export grade after being rained on before baling.
• Pasture – Steady ($110 – $130): There seems to be good stocks of pasture hay available to trade.

• Smithton May rainfall: 63.2mm (Ave: 79mm). March rainfall 57.2mm (Ave: 50.4mm).
• YTD: 217.2mm (Ave: 265mm), compared to 332.8mm this time last year.
• More rain this last week to make it very wet and cold.
• Not enough rain on the mainland for Victorian crops to get established, so caution remains.
• Wheat $ -5 ($380 to $390). Red wheats being used, both from local and mainland sources.
• Feed barley $ +5 ($365 to $375). The price of feed barley is competitive versus wheat, but expect to see more wheat used as winter arrives
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($361 to $371). Mainland triticale is on offer. To be useful it must be cheaper than wheat, and may see lower prices after rains in NE Vic
• Oats prices $ +0 ($300 to $310). Imported oats are going to horses and chicken meat rations, but market stronger as autumn sheep demand kicks in.
• Grain prices remain firm on dry conditions through main Victorian grain areas. Some traders lowered their offers in the expectation of better rains this last week, but the rains did not eventuate so production risk for 2013 remains.

• There is a definite shortage of supply in Tasmania leading into winter. Ryegrass straw is available in limited supply and some dairies are using this low cost product for roughage.
• Silage stocks on farm are low and there is some demand for trading silage, small quantities are available for sale. It is recommended that trading be done on a $/t DM basis as opposed to per bale.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($205-$225): Stocks are very low due to lack of production for fodder and high competition in the grain sector.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$350): Lucerne supplies are limited; silage in particular is in high demand but not easy to source.
• Straw – Steady – ($135-$145): Given the dry conditions the quality of straw is high and is starting to move now, with demand at this time of year coming from mainland mushroom growers.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($160-$200): The supply of pasture hay is just not available this year, especially good quality pasture hay.