Grain – Hay Report – 6 June 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• The biggest grain news for the week has been the fantastic rains across South Eastern Australia last weekend which has ensured the establishment of the 2013 winter crops.
• From Ceduna in South Australia, right across SA, Victoria, all of the Riverina, and up into central NSW as far north as Dubbo, there were falls of 25-40mm and higher. All planned crops will now be sown, with perhaps canola area scaling back a little because of the later break to the season.
• Globally, markets were steady with concerns still around the delays in planting of the US crop. The focus is now on soybeans, whereas the corn and spring wheat areas have caught up to normal. If the soybean crop gets further delayed, there will be pressure on oilseed and protein meal supplies because the old crop balance sheet for oilseeds is very tight.
• So, while the local market breathes a sigh of relief from the rains, the global background remains solid with a slightly lower A$ keeping grain prices largely unchanged for the week.
• The global focus will now turn to 2013 yields – which will play out according to the weather over the next 90 or so days.
• There is still plenty of weather between now and when crops are in the bin, but the world is still poised for an all-time record wheat and corn crop. There are still about 100 days to go, but if they do deliver, global grain prices are still expected to fall in the second half of 2013.
• The extremely dry inland conditions up north for the cattle industry has created very strong feedgrain demand and bulging cattle feedlots through NSW and Queensland. This demand is expected to persist through the balance of 2013 and is currently keeping local grain values in northern Australia over exporter bids.
• For the dairy regions, if you are close to a grain growing region (say Darling Downs, Central NSW, Northern and Western Victoria, SE south Australia) then you can expect spot wheat prices in the $280-320/tonne range, whereas regions which “import” grains (North Coast NSW, Atherton Tableland, Bega Valley, Gippsland) are more likely to see grains in the $320-360 range to cover the freight costs ($350-400 for Tasmania). If all the stars line up around the world for good crops between now and October 2013, a price drop of $50 by Christmas would not be a surprise – but we can’t bank on this yet because there are too many weather variables to say it will definitely happen.
• The most important question for dairy farmers is not trying to pick the bottom, but to make a start on covering some of their forward grain needs if the quoted prices allow them to make a margin, taking into account the expected milk pricing that the industry awaits from mid-2013.

National Summary – Hay:

• Winter is already upon us and with limited paddock feed available in most regions it is unsurprising to see more price increases in the hay market this week. Gippsland and the Darling Downs seem to have the biggest price hikes mostly due to cost of freight to these regions.
• Most regions have now received some break with the exception of Western QLD where the drought conditions are having a devastating impact on cattle stations. Fodder, mostly Rhodes grass, is being shipped West from the Atherton Tablelands and Western Downs, where available as supply is lower than usual through the region.
• In previous drought years fodder has been sourced from the Northern Territory, however dry conditions in that region are causing buyers to seek fodder from Central SA and other regions to sustain their own requirements.
• Some exporters have been able to turn small quantities of cereal hay back onto the domestic market but this supply is not going to sustain winter.
• A common trend we are seeing is growers who have a relationship with their supplier have been able to source their fodder and avoid paying extremely high prices. This is something to consider coming into the 2013 fodder harvest. Fodder is already in short supply and there will be very little, if any carry over fodder into 2014. Buyers are urged to consider their fodder needs for 2014 and initiate discussions with their suppliers or hay traders as early in the hay season as possible. Fodder supplies in 2014 are dependent on the 2013 spring.
• There are stocks of good quality cereal held by exporters in Western Australia and to a lesser extent South Australia, some of this product may become available to the domestic market in the coming months, however freight costs to the east coast will be very high.
• We are hearing more and more reports of both buyers and sellers getting burnt in fodder transactions as the market becomes tighter. It is important to ensure that both buyers and sellers look out for themselves by using written contracts for all fodder transactions, especially in current circumstances. If you would like more information on written contracts for hay please contact the AFIA office on 03 9530 2199.
• Vetch is in very limited supply throughout Victoria. It is worth noting that dry sowing of vetch in the Wimmera-Mallee has commenced but rainfall has been very low through that region. This gives an indication that vetch crops planned for hay in 2013 may perform poorly and be low yielding. Therefore a vetch shortage into 2014 may be likely as well.
• Most hay in storage is under contract or committed to customers; however some lower grades of hay and straw are still available. Again buyers are advised to source their requirements as soon as possible.
• Cereal hay and vetch are in shortest supply in the eastern states. Reporting this week has indicated that vetch supplies will not hold on much longer and cereal hay is in very short supply.
• As fodder is moved greater distances freight is starting to have a big impact on price.
• Demand for hay from feedlots in QLD is starting to increase as Western QLD and areas in the Northern Territory have stayed extremely dry, with station owners opting to destock rather than freight hay.
• Supply of fodder is a particular concern for South East, SA, South West Victoria, Tasmania and Gippsland. In these areas freight is the biggest cost as local growers are struggling to meet the increasing demand for fodder.
• In order to assist struggling Victoria Graziers and dairy farmers the VFF has initiated a fodder register for growers and buyers to register their fodder or their requirements. To learn more contact the VFF or visit their website afia.org.au
• Throughout June AFIA will be hosting three grower updates for the benefit of fodder growers, contractors and buyers. The days will be held in Lockington on Tuesday 18 June, Condah Thursday 20 June and Wagga Thursday 27 June. Key focus of these days will be on making quality silage and understanding the value of feed tests when trading/ making fodder. For more information on the days contact AFIA.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

Notes: Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.

Notes: Hay prices are delivered, GST exclusive based on shedded hay without weather damage, of good quality and colour. It should be noted there is a wide variation in quality for hay, so prices are indicative for a mid-range product.

• Mareeba June rainfall: 1.6 (Ave: 6.1mm).
• YTD: 699.4mm (Ave: 722). Rainfall for this time last year was 798.4
• Another 22mm this week, so the dry season has not taken hold. Future grazing feed will need to come from irrigation blocks strip grazed or cut and carried to the cows.
• Wheat: $+10 ($380 to $390). CQ wheat to be sown over next month. All CQ old crop wheat is now milling grade.
• Barley: $ +10 ($428 to $438). Basically no barley left in Southern Queensland. Too expensive in the ration compared to local corn/sorghum and wheat.
• Corn prices $ +10 ($383 to $393). Local tablelands corn is best option with small volumes trading. Look out for any weather damaged / stained corn at a discount.
• Sorghum: $ +7 ($330 to $340). CQ harvest gets under way. Around $100 freight from CQ so if local sorghum available, consider a share of the freight savings.
• Choices for feed grains remains between local corn and sorghum. Any local sorghum that appears would be worth bidding for.

• Far west QLD is experiencing very dry conditions and the impact is a higher demand for fodder from the Atherton Tablelands. Rhodes grass is being baled and shipped straight away West to stations that are desperate to find fodder for their weaned cattle.
• There has been some demand from southern QLD for pasture hay given the fodder shortage in that region.
• Pasture Hay – Steady ($255-275): Supplies of hay are lower than usual, after a dry wet season; however the quality is good as baling conditions have been favourable

• Toowoomba June rainfall: 3mm (Ave: 33mm).
• YTD: 808.6mm (Ave: 364.7mm), compared to 381mm this time last year.
• 5-10mm on Downs this week was helpful for winter crops but more rain needed.
• Wheat: $+14 ($330 to $340). Supplies tight, only milling wheat available and export competition active.
• Feed Barley: $ +20 ($328 to $338). Nominal market with little trading or supply available.
• Corn $ +10 ($330 to $340). Good value c.f. wheat but best for processors with heat treatment. Some stained corn coming through and not making gritting grade.
• Sorghum: $ 17 ($302 to $312). Our prices are for export sorghum quality. Best priced grain for cows, but better if you have heat treatment.
• Some selling of sorghum ex farm now that rains have come for winter crops.
• Beef feedlot demand strong with strong supply of cattle from inland stations where pastures now minimal.

• Pasture hay and forage sorghum is still being baled on the downs, the highest levels of activity is from lot feeders trying to secure winter feed. This will conclude in the next week or two.
• While buying activity is strong, prices have remained steady this week.
• Cereal Hay – +$25 – ($330-$360): Cereal hay is in particularly short supply nationally and is being freighted from further afield to meet demand. Reports of fodder coming from as far as Central SA this week, give an indication that buyers are becoming desperate. Small squares of last season cereal hay are trading locally to hobby farmers and the horse industry at $7/ bale.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($400-$450): Lucerne in large squares is hard to source in the region, and is becoming a growing concern across the country. The horse and hobby markets are the most active buyers presently and paying $12-15/bale for premium quality lucerne where it is available.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$150): Feedlots active buyers. The quality is good but there isn’t a lot of reserve stock available locally.
• Pasture – Steady- ($180-$200): Baling has now finished for summer pastures. There is strong demand from lot feeders and station owners for pasture hay which is driving the price up. Buyers are attempting to secure enough rations for winter.

• Lismore June rainfall total: 1mm (Ave: 107.9mm).
• YTD: 795.6mm (Ave: 680mm), compared to 759mm this time last year.
• Modest falls of 5mm on north coast this week.
• SFW Wheat: $ 14 ($377 to $387). Only milling wheat available and competition from export buyers.
• Feed Barley: $ +20 ($399 to $409). Nominal market with little trade occurring. Strong feedlot demand.
• Corn $ +10 ($375 to $385). Local corn crops available. Corn can be blended with other grains for cows or fed as the main ingredient.
• Sorghum: $ +17 ($327 to $337). Active trade as the cheapest grain available, but need heat treatment for best results.
• Best option to use any coastal grain that is stripped, which means personal contact with local grain growers.
• Grazing feed for beef cattle west of the Divide has gone so cattle markets weak, including loss of live cattle exports to Indonesia.
• So many more cattle going onto temporary grain feeding in feedlots till grass returns.

• More wet weather this week has started to slow pasture growth and delayed sowing for some, however it does appear likely that the paddock feed will sustain dairy farmers through the winter, if conditions dry out.
• Demand has picked up a little from dairies supplementing pasture with cereal hay. Graziers are also in the market for fodder, choosing to wean calves and feed them as opposed to selling steers into a very weak cattle market.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($260-$300): There is very little available locally and nationally and local traders are finding is difficult to source.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($300-$350): There is very little quality lucerne available locally. Supply is particularly tight for small squares which are trading at $12/bale.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($150-$170): With more graziers supplementary feeding cattle this year there has been steady demand for pasture hay. The quality is good but supply is low; therefore if we see a cooler winter it will quickly become hard to source pasture hay locally.

• Forbes June Rainfall: 66mm (Ave: 31mm). March rainfall was 79.8mm.
• YTD: 252mm (Ave: 224mm), compared to 425 this time last year.
• Fantastic 65mm last week to help emerging crops and more area will be planted in June.
• SFW Wheat: $ -5 ($270 to $280). Only milling grades now available, but some selling following the rains.
• F1 Barley: $ +3 ($252 to $262). Barley now tightly held and strong demand from northern feedlots.
• Corn $ +0 ($280 to $290). Local new crop supplies (odd loads) now available.
• Sorghum $ +10 ($363 to $373). Sorghum prices less competitive with other feed grains out on the central plains, but expect price easing as some ex-farm selling occurs after the rains in north of the state.
• More wheat is scheduled for June sowing and not too late for good yields.

• There is very strong demand for fodder through the central west particularly for lucerne as it is one of the few regions with limited supply still available. Bulk hay, particularly of lucerne in big squares is now in very short supply.
• Local growers are giving priority to their regular customers before supplying new customers from other regions.
• Cereal hay – Steady ($250-$300): There is very little supply locally in large squares. Cereal hay in small squares is in very short supply but trading at $8-10/bale to horse and hobby farm buyers.
• Lucerne -Steady – ($350-$400): Another price rise this week is indicative of the widespread competition for lucerne hay between chaff mills, traders and livestock buyers at the moment. Good quality small square bales are steady at around $10-12/bale.
• Straw – Steady ($115-$135): The Central West is not traditionally a big area for straw and there is not a huge supply.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($145-$155) – Low grade pasture hay is being snapped up by the livestock market for cheap forage where it is available. Supply is very limited as it is not a regular market for the region.

• Bega June rainfall total: 1.6 (Ave: 50mm).
• YTD: 226mm (Ave: 369mm), compared to 637mm this time last year.
• 3mm for Bega valley for the week. Good for flats grazing but unlikely to spur growth on the hills.
• SFW Wheat $ -5 ($310 to $320). Wheat prices easier after the widespread rains of the prior week have ensured the establishment of the 2013 winter crops in NSW. Only milling wheats available from old crop now with exporter demand steady.
• Feed barley $ +5 ($283 to $293). Supplies dwindling across NSW with very strong northern NSW feedlot demand.
• Triticale $ -3 ($306 to $316). Triticale is currently trading below wheat with some included in rations coming from Victoria.
• Oats: $ +0 ($285 to $295). Very strong demand for sheep feeding on Southern Tablelands and now too expensive for use in dairy rations.
• Better falls in grain areas of the central west. NSW grain prospects for incoming winter crops improved but long way to go.
• More wheat in demand for energy as cows go into winter feeding cycle.

• Most supply to the region is coming from Central West NSW, the Southern Tablelands and the Riverina. There is strong competition in these supplying regions from sheep and cattle graziers which is driving price up.
• Available paddock feed is getting low and there is concern over fodder supply for winter to this region.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($280- $320): Prices have increased again as supply tightens across the region and fodder is being freighted longer distances.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($350-$400): Buyers are searching further afield to source lucerne. In supplying regions demand is rapidly diminishing and there is increasing competition from the livestock sector due to the dry conditions.
• Straw – Steady ($140-180): There wasn’t a lot of straw made in the supplying regions and now there is strong competition from other sectors. High prices are reflecting the lack of supply.

• Tatura June rainfall: 21mm (Ave: 45mm).
• YTD: 136mm (Ave: 227mm), compared to 315mm this time last year.
• Region had 30-60mm over last weekend and this has set up the 2013 crops for a very good start. More hectares will be planted into June as well/
• Wheat: $ +2 ($274 to $284). Only milling grades now available and winter demand kicking in..
• F1 Barley: $ +2 ($254 to $264). Barley in tight supply and needs to be $20 discount to wheat to be viable for winter energy.
• Triticale: $ +0 ($264 to $274). Triticale is good buying at any discount to wheat.
• Feed Oats: $ +5 ($227 to $237). Sheep and horse feed only at these prices. Steady Riverina sheep demand.
• Grain prices may ease into second half 2013 as confidence in the 2013 crop prospects unfold.

• Demand for all fodder types remains high, and with diminishing supply prices are still increasing.
• Buyers who don’t have established relationships with their hay trader or supplier are missing out on fodder or paying very high prices.
• Cereal hay – +$25- ($330-$350) –Cereal hay is very hard to find anywhere in the country. Growers are still getting a lot of enquiries indicating demand remains very high and the only ones that aren’t missing out are customers who have made arrangements with their suppliers earlier in the year.
• Lucerne hay – +$25 – ($350-$400) – Supply is now very low there are no reports of uncommitted lucerne locally. Lucerne is being sourced in small quantities from as far away as SA and Central West NSW. These regions do not have large quantities and regular customers are being looked after as a priority by growers. Small squares are also hard to source and are trading at around $14/bale on farm.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$170) – Demand for straw has really picked up in the last few weeks. There is very limited straw available that isn’t under contract and buyers are becoming desperate to find straw to meet their winter requirements. On average straw is trading on farm between $110-$140t.
• Vetch – +$20 – ($340 – 380) – There are no reports of vetch trading under $300/t on farm now and supplies are very low nationally. It is worth noting that dry sowing of vetch in the Mallee has commenced but rainfall has been scarce. This gives an early indication that vetch crops planned for hay in 2013 may perform poorly and be low yielding. Therefore a vetch shortage into 2014 may be likely.

• Sale June rainfall: 12.8mm (Ave: 45.7mm).
• YTD: 174.4mm (Ave: 283.5mm), compared to 371.2mm this time last year.
• Local falls of over 30mm, but generally 20-30mm across Gippsland. Too late for really good pasture growth, so grain usage in bails on the rise with straw and hay being brought in.
• SFW Wheat: $ +2 ($313 to $323). Main grain in demand now for winter. Only milling wheat available.
• Barley: $ -5 ($291 to $301). Most Gippsland dairy farmers have been on wheat for long time. Concerns for crops in NW Victoria
• Triticale: $ +0 ($302 to $312). A little more triticale on offer following rains in NE Vic.
• Feed Oats: $ +5 ($238 to $248) Stronger demand for sheep feeding and for the horse trade. Expect to stay firm while there is demand from Riverina sheep farms.
• Much of the Victorian wheat was sold to major traders last harvest. Farmer and merchant stocks are lower than normal and are holding stocks tightly still.
• Some expectation the new season milk prices will rise by 15-20 per cent.
• Grain prices may ease as confidence in the 2013 winter crop unfolds into second half 2013.

• For graziers and dairy farmers recent rain in Gippsland has not eased their need for fodder coming into winter and therefore demand is still very high.
• Traders and buyers are finding it very difficult to source hay from the key supply regions due to low supply and strong competition.
• One major issue facing buyers in Gippsland is the cost of freight. Most competing buyers in the fodder market, outside of Gippsland, have lower freight bills and therefore can pay a little more for their fodder; this is driving the cost up. As a result the ability to source and pay for fodder through winter is now a serious concern through this region.
• Cereal Hay –+$50- ($350-$400) – Supply of cereal hay is very tight. As buyers work harder to secure very small quantities against competition that do not have as significant freight costs, prices delivered into Gippsland are becoming very high, now getting close to $400t delivered.
• Lucerne Hay – +$60 – ($380-$420) – Local lucerne is already committed and the most common comment from traders trying to source any is that it simply isn’t available.
• Vetch – Steady –($400+) – There is very little available nationally. With a poor start to the main vetch growing regions it is very likely there will be a vetch shortage in 2014. Regular buyers are encouraged to secure their vetch hay early, behind the baler in spring this year to avoid missing out in 2014.
• Straw – ($200-$220) – There is still some straw sourced from the Western Districts and Central Victoria. High grade barley hay is priced between $120-$140 on farm, wheat straw is about $100-$110. The freight back to Gippsland is adding significant cost for buyers.
• Pasture – +$50– ($280-$300) –Very short supply of any grade pasture hay across Southern Australia, including the usual local supply of round bale pasture which has been cleaned out.

• Port Fairy June rainfall: 8.6mm (Ave: 80.8mm).
• YTD: 237mm (Ave: 303.5mm), compared to 295mm this time last year.
• About 10mm across the region which will allow completion of planting of winter crops. Fantastic rains of 25-40mm across the main Victorian grain regions to the north, which will ensure the establishment of the 2013 winter crops.
• Not as much canola was sown.
• Silage now an important component of cows’ diets. Cereal straw being fed to dry stock to reduce expenditure on energy needs.
• SFW1 Wheat: $ +0 ($277 to $287). Only milling grades available and all red and feed wheats trading at same price.
• Feed Barley: $ +5 ($253 to $263). The discount to wheat is $15 a tonne, and some selling may occur from farms now that the new crop has had rain..
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($280 to $290). Triticale is in demand, but only at a discount to wheat.
• Feed oat $ +0 ($226 to $236). Steady demand for sheep.
• Main problem for the region is lack of gazing feed for cows. Pastures were hard grazed over summer and autumn, so food is needed.
• · Supply is tight – some combinations of straw for fibre and cheapness – and extra grain for energy that the straw lacks.

• Fodder growers in the key supply regions are generally hanging onto stocks for their regular customers with any excess fodder already sold or being retained for on farm use.
• There are reports this week of very small amount of protein hay becoming available and delivered on farm for $400t.
• Cereal – +$30 – ($350 – $370): It is extremely difficult to source cereal hay at the moment and most hay in storage is under contract. Prices increases are indicative of the very tight supply situation.
• Lucerne –+$30 – ($350-$400): The usual suppliers of lucerne from North Central Victoria and South East South Australia are very low or completely out of stock. Prices are quickly rising as stocks run low.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$160): There is still some straw sourced from the Western Districts and Central Victoria. High grade barley straw is priced between $120-$140 on farm, wheat straw is about $100-$110.
• Pasture hay – +$40 – ($260 – $300): Pasture hay is in short supply and very difficult to source across the state.

• Mount Gambier June rainfall: 4.6mm (Ave: 83mm).
• YTD: 161.8mm (Ave: 296mm), compared to 222mm this time last year.
• All SA grain areas have had enough rain to germinate sown crops and to encourage further sowings of wheat and barley and some to pulse crops.
• Wheat $ -5 ($289 to $299). Improved outlook for 2013 winter crops has brought some easing of grain prices.
• Feed barley $ +10 ($253 to $263). At a $30 discount to wheat, barley is competitive with wheat, but wheat will be in demand as winter approaches.
• Triticale $ +0 ($280 to $290). Good buying at a discount to wheat and some supply in SE South Aust.
• Oat prices $ +0 ($219 to $229) More interest in oats from sheep and wool producers. Too expensive for its feed value to cattle.
• General expectation of lower grain prices into second half 2013 if the winter crop turns out at average yields.

• Cereal hay, straw and pasture hay prices are all up this week as winter starts in earnest. Graziers are taking the time to review their fodder situation and weigh up the cost of buying feed at this time as a result demand has eased a little.
• Cereal –Steady- ($300-$330): Cereal hay is becoming very difficult to source.
• Lucerne –+$30 – ($320-$360): Supply is becoming very low through the Naracoorte, Keith regions, with price increases reflecting the tight supply. Growers with excess Lucerne are considering their own needs for winter before trading hay as temperatures start to drop.
• Straw – +$20 – ($140-$160): Trading has picked up however there is little in excess throughout SA.
• Pasture – +$30 -($250-280): Pasture has been snapped up early by the livestock buyers and is becoming harder to source now.

• Murray Bridge June rainfall: 67.6mm (Ave: 37.6mm).
• YTD: 156.2mm (Ave: 154.4mm). 206.9mm this time last year.
• Excellent rains across most of SA grain regions with most receiving 25+mm. This assures the establishment of the crop.
• Wheat $ -6 ($272 to $282). Wheat prices lower and back in line with exporter bids for milling wheats.
• Feed barley $-6 ($233 to $243), The discount to wheat is making barley a more attractive feeding option for cows than wheat, but wheat demand will rise for winter feeding. Barley price softer on better feed grain outlook for 2013.
• Triticale $ -5 ($265 to $275). Good buying at discount to wheat.
• Feed oats $ -5 ($213 to $223). Oat prices may ease in coming weeks as paddock feed increases after the rains.
• SA grain market reflecting the general export grain market again after trading at a premium when the 2013 crop prospects looked bleak a few weeks back. Outlook in SA Australia much more positive now.

• Prices remain high in the region and any fodder available is moving big distances to fill the supply shortage in Southern Australia. As a result fodder supply locally is getting very low.
• Cereal Hay – Steady- ($250-$300) –Where cereal hay is available, quality is very high however the quantities are low and most fodder in storage is already committed to regular domestic or export customers.
• Lucerne – Steady- ($300+) – Low supply is due to limited acreages and poor results from dryland Lucerne in SA this year. There appears to be no big quantities of Lucerne available anywhere on the domestic market.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$130) – Any straw on farm is likely to be under contract but demand from the domestic market is fairly quiet at this stage.
• Vetch – Steady ($300+) – Where available growers are asking top dollar for good quality vetch hay, there is very little now available.

• Bunbury June rainfall: 0mm (Ave: 147.8mm).
• YTD: 198.4mm (Ave: 309.2mm), compared to 158.4mm this time last year.
• Few showers in dairy areas this week and growing conditions excellent with feed still growing
• With the exception of the north-eastern wheat belt, the WA winter crop is off to a good start. Esperance and Great Southern in good shape.
• Wheat: $ -10 ($311 to $321). Prices trade down as crop prospects improve for 2013.
• Feed barley $ -5 ($290 to $300). Wheat preferred for energy as winter sets in.
• Triticale $ -10 ($290 to $300). Triticale is competitive with feed wheat at these prices and more being offered to Perth processors. Esperance supplies for 2013 look promising at this stage.
• Oats +0 ($220 to $230). The current demand is from sheep producers for their winter feeding needs.
• More grower selling from warehouse as the 2013 crop outlook improves.

• WA is one of the few locations nationally with some fodder reserves, particularly of cereal hay and straw. However a lot of the fodder in storage is committed.
• Lucerne hay is in short supply as which is due to production ceasing coming into winter.
• The season is looking promising so far with good rain favouring growers, who are getting ready to sow long winter varieties in mid to late May.
• Cereal hay – Steady – ($180-$250): There has been an oversupply of high grade new season hay and could be some carry over. There is competition for the lower grade hay which is pushing the price up.
• Lucerne – Steady ($400-$500) – Demand for Lucerne has increased, supply is running low and chaff mills are active buyers of premium quality hay. The main domestic activity is from local horse markets and prices are peaking at around $470/t on farm.
• Straw – Steady ($90-$120): There is some lower grade straw around that didn’t make export grade after being rained on before baling.
• Pasture – Steady ($110 – $130): There seems to be good stocks of pasture hay available to trade.

• Smithton June rainfall: 6.2mm (Ave: 104mm).
• YTD: 229mm (Ave: 369.2mm), compared to 364.2mm this time last year.
• More showers this last week to make it very wet and cold and boggy conditions.
• Great rains across South East Aust has markedly improved crop outlook for 2013.
• Wheat $ +0 ($385 to $395). Red and white feed wheats and milling grades all trading on par.
• Feed barley $ +5 ($370 to $380). The price of feed barley is competitive versus wheat, but expect to see more wheat used as winter arrives
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($368 to $378). Mainland triticale is on offer. To be useful it must be cheaper than wheat, and may see some sellers from NE Vic
• Oats prices $ +5 ($305 to $315). Market stronger as autumn ewe and lamb demand kicks in.
• Local wheat crops establishing well – a mix of red and white wheat varieties.
• Grain prices expected to ease into second half 2013 if the winter crop achieves average yields.

• There is a definite shortage of supply in Tasmania leading into winter. Ryegrass straw is available in limited supply and some dairies are using this low cost product for roughage.
• Silage stocks on farm are low and there is some demand for trading silage, small quantities are available for sale. It is recommended that trading be done on a $/t DM basis as opposed to per bale.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($205-$225): Stocks are very low due to lack of production for fodder and high competition in the grain sector.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$350): Lucerne supplies are limited; silage in particular is in high demand but not easy to source.
• Straw – Steady – ($135-$145): Given the dry conditions the quality of straw is high and is starting to move now, with demand at this time of year coming from mainland mushroom growers.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($160-$200): The supply of pasture hay is just not available this year, especially good quality pasture hay.