Grain – Hay Report – 13 June 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• The USDA World Grain Supply and Demand estimates were released this week and re-confirmed what we all knew… a major global crop is still on the way for 2013 in the northern hemisphere. Despite some concerns about planting delays for US corn and soybeans over the last few weeks, it looks like those concerns are abating as harvest gets under way down south in Texas.
• Crops in the Black Sea have been revised down a little due to dryness, but in the end the numbers all point to bigger crops and stocks over the course of 2013/14, but with the constant caveat, SUBJECT TO normal weather over the next few months!
• The latest USDA global figures suggest:- Wheat – an unchanged stocks to use ratio of around 27%. Pretty comfortable. Corn – stocks to use ratio improving slightly from 14% to 16%. An improved situation, but still vulnerable to a hit on production somewhere. Soybeans – stocks to use ratio up from 24% to 27%. Like corn, soybeans remain vulnerable to a hit on production especially with Chinese demand for oilseeds remaining strong.
• The season-changing rains across South-Eastern Australia at the beginning of June have been followed up with more rain this week. This will further boost local crop prospects and ABARE came out with a forecast 25 million tonne wheat crop for 2013/14, up slightly on their prior forecast. This recent rain has taken some of the risk out of the old crop east coast supply/demand situation and grain prices are steady to a little easier this week (except for sorghum, see below).
• The general expectation is that a grain prices will drop in the second half of 2013, but because old crop supply of both feedgrains and oilseeds is so tight in the US, the market does not seem prepared to give up this premium till we get closer to seeing that supply in the bin (say September). Weather will continue to play a key part until that risk is taken off the table.
• Currently, the grain price direction is down, but keep a watch on weather developments over June-August till we see the northern hemisphere crop get closer to delivery.
• The local grain market has been fairly flat in the last week with wheat and barley prices steady in most east coast locations, although sorghum much firmer (up $10-20) in northern NSW and Darling Downs. This reflects the relatively tight supply of feed grains on the east coast, strong beef feedlot demand and virtually no barley for supply in those northern regions. Having a price target in mind as to where acceptable margins can be achieved is an important risk management approach in years like this. Grain farmers may feel more inclined to sell their remaining old crop stocks after July 1, now that the season seems back on track in south-eastern Australia.
• There is plenty of weather between now and when crops are in the bin, but the world is still poised for an all-time record wheat and corn crop. There are still about 100 days to go, but if they do deliver, global grain prices are expected to fall in the second half of 2013.
• The most important question for dairy farmers is not trying to pick the bottom, but to make a start on covering some of their forward grain needs if the quoted prices allow them to make a margin, taking into account the milk pricing which is now emerging from the milk processors for 2013/14 (Murray Goulburn announced a 24% increase from July 2013).

National Summary – Hay:

• The eastern parts of Australia have finally received decent rainfalls. For most growers it is timely, and with sowing complete they are feeling a lot more optimistic about the fodder harvest for 2013. In parts of Gippsland and South Eastern QLD there have been large rainfall events with flood warnings and severe storms impacting these regions.
• The rain is likely to take some pressure off the demand for hay, particularly for protein hays, with buyers reconsidering their requirements for winter due to the high cost of fodder, and panic buying in anticipation of drought is coming to an end.
• With some limited paddock feed available buyers attention has mostly turned to straw as a cost effective fibre source in comparison to cereal hay. However freight costs should be taken into consideration when transporting straw over long distances.
• There has been little movement in hay prices this week with some speculation that prices will now stay steady for a few weeks. The biggest impact on price at present is freight. With fodder being moved longer distances this is having significant impact on some regions including Gippsland and Southern Queensland.
• While most regions have now received a break the exception is Western QLD and NT where the drought conditions are having a devastating impact on cattle stations. Fodder, mostly Rhodes grass, is being shipped West from the Atherton Tablelands and Western Downs, where available as supply is lower than usual through the region.
• In previous drought years fodder has been sourced from the Northern Territory, however dry conditions in that region are causing buyers to seek fodder from Central SA and other regions to sustain their own requirements.
• A common trend we are seeing is growers who have a relationship with their supplier have been able to source their fodder and avoid paying extremely high prices. This is something to consider coming into the 2013 fodder harvest. Fodder is already in short supply and there will be very little, if any carry over fodder into 2014. Buyers are urged to consider their fodder needs for 2014 and initiate discussions with their suppliers or hay traders as early in the hay season as possible. Fodder supplies in 2014 are dependent on the 2013 spring.
• There are stocks of good quality cereal held by exporters in Western Australia and to a lesser extent South Australia, some of this product may become available to the domestic market in the coming months, however freight costs to the east coast will be high.
• We are hearing more and more reports of both buyers and sellers getting burnt in fodder transactions as the market becomes tighter. It is important to ensure that both buyers and sellers look out for themselves by using written contracts for all fodder transactions, especially in current circumstances. If you would like more information on written contracts for hay please contact the AFIA office on 03 9530 2199.
• Cereal hay and vetch are in shortest supply in the eastern states. Reporting this week has indicated that vetch supplies will not hold on much longer and cereal hay is in very short supply.
• Demand for hay from feedlots in QLD is starting to increase as Western QLD and areas in the Northern Territory have stayed extremely dry, with station owners opting to destock rather than freight hay.
• In order to assist struggling Victoria Graziers and dairy farmers the VFF has initiated a fodder register for growers and buyers to register their fodder or their requirements. To learn more contact the VFF or visit their website afia.org.au
• It’s only 12 weeks until spring now and with most regions receiving a good break it isn’t too early to consider your fodder harvest in 2013. Throughout June AFIA will be hosting three grower updates for the benefit of fodder growers, contractors and buyers. The days will be held in Lockington on Tuesday 18 June, Condah Thursday 20 June and Wagga Thursday 27 June. Key focus of these days will be on making quality silage and understanding the value of feed tests when trading/ making fodder. For more information on the days contact AFIA on 03 9530 2199.

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

Notes: Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.

Notes: Hay prices are delivered, GST exclusive based on shedded hay without weather damage, of good quality and colour. It should be noted there is a wide variation in quality for hay, so prices are indicative for a mid-range product.

• Mareeba June rainfall: 3.2mm (Ave: 6.1mm).
• YTD: 701mm (Ave: 722). Rainfall for this time last year was 798.4
• Another 25mm at Atherton this week, so the dry season has not taken hold. Future grazing feed will need to come from irrigation blocks strip grazed or cut and carried to the cows.
• Wheat: $+5 ($385 to $395). CQ wheat to be sown over next month. All CQ old crop wheat is now milling grade.
• Barley: $ +0 ($428 to $438). Basically no barley left in Southern Queensland. Too expensive in the ration compared to local corn/sorghum and wheat.
• Corn prices $ +0 ($383 to $393). Local tablelands corn is best option with small volumes trading. Look out for any weather damaged / stained corn at a discount.
• Sorghum: $ +8 ($338 to $348). CQ harvest under way. Around $100 freight from CQ so if local sorghum available, consider a share of the freight savings.
• Choices for feed grains remains between local corn and sorghum. Any local sorghum that appears would be worth bidding for.

• Far west QLD is experiencing very dry conditions and the impact is a higher demand for fodder from the Atherton Tablelands. Rhodes grass is being baled and shipped west to stations that are desperate to find fodder for their weaned cattle.
• There has been some demand from southern QLD for pasture hay given the fodder shortage in that region.
• Pasture Hay – Steady ($255-275): Supplies of hay are lower than usual, after a dry wet season; however the quality is good as baling conditions have been favourable

• Toowoomba June rainfall: 23mm (Ave: 33mm).
• YTD: 829mm (Ave: 365mm), compared to 398mm this time last year.
• 25-30mm on Downs this week was very helpful for winter crops.
• Wheat: $+5 ($335 to $345). Supplies tight, only milling wheat available and export competition active.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($328 to $338). Nominal market with little trading or supply available.
• Corn $ +0 ($330 to $340). Good value c.f. wheat but best for processors with heat treatment. Some stained corn coming through and not making gritting grade.
• Sorghum: $ +3 ($305 to $315). Eastern Downs late sorghum harvest slowed again by the rain. Our prices are for export sorghum quality. Best priced grain for cows, but better if you have heat treatment.
• Some selling of sorghum ex farm now that rains have come for winter crops.
• Beef feedlot demand strong with strong supply of cattle from inland stations where pastures minimal.

• Pasture hay and forage sorghum is still being baled on the downs, the highest levels of activity is from lot feeders trying to secure winter feed. This will conclude in the next week or two.
• While buying activity is strong, prices have remained steady this week.
• Cereal Hay – steady – ($330-$360): Cereal hay is in particularly short supply nationally and are being freighted from further afield to meet demand. Reports of fodder coming from as far as Central SA this week, give an indication that buyers are becoming desperate. Small squares of last season cereal hay are trading locally to hobby farmers and the horse industry at $7/ bale.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($400-$450): Lucerne in large squares is hard to source in the region, and is becoming a growing concern across the country. The horse and hobby markets are the most active buyers presently and paying $12-15/bale for premium quality lucerne where it is available.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$150): Feedlots active buyers. The quality is good but there isn’t a lot of reserve stock available locally.
• Pasture – Steady- ($180-$200): Baling has now finished for summer pastures. There is strong demand from lot feeders and station owners for pasture hay which is driving the price up. Buyers are attempting to secure enough rations for winter.

• Lismore June rainfall total: 77mm (Ave: 107.9mm).
• YTD: 873mm (Ave: 680mm), compared to 803mm this time last year.
• 20-40mm on north coast this week; 5-10mm on mid-north coast.
• SFW Wheat: $ 5 ($382 to $392). Only milling wheat available and competition from export buyers.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($399 to $409). Nominal market with little trade occurring. Strong feedlot demand.
• Corn $ +5 ($380 to $390). Local corn crops available. Corn can be blended with other grains for cows or fed as the main ingredient.
• Sorghum: $ +3 ($330 to $340). Active trade as the cheapest grain available, but need heat treatment for best results.
• Best option to use any coastal grain that is stripped, which means personal contact with local grain growers.
• Grazing feed for beef cattle west of the Divide has gone so northern feedlots full till the grass returns.

• More wet weather this week has started to slow pasture growth and delayed sowing for some, however it does appear likely that the paddock feed will sustain dairy farmers through the winter, if conditions dry out.
• Demand has picked up a little from dairies supplementing pasture with cereal hay. Graziers are also in the market for fodder, choosing to wean calves and feed them as opposed to selling steers into a very weak cattle market.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($260-$300): There is very little available locally and nationally and local traders are finding is difficult to source.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($300-$350): There is very little quality lucerne available locally. Supply is particularly tight for small squares which are trading at $12/bale.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($150-$170): With more graziers supplementary feeding cattle this year there has been steady demand for pasture hay. The quality is good but supply is low; therefore if we see a cooler winter it will quickly become hard to source pasture hay locally.

• Forbes June Rainfall: 113mm (Ave: 47mm). March rainfall was 79.8mm.
• YTD: 299mm (Ave: 224mm), compared to 425 this time last year.
• Another 40mm last week to help emerging crops and more area will be planted in June.
• SFW Wheat: $ +0 ($270 to $280). Only milling grades now available, but some selling following the rains.
• F1 Barley: $ +0 ($252 to $262). Barley now tightly held and strong demand from northern feedlots.
• Corn $ +0 ($280 to $290). Local new crop supplies (odd loads) now available.
• Sorghum $ +0 ($363 to $373). Sorghum prices less competitive with other feed grains out on the central plains, but expect price easing as some ex-farm selling occurs after the rains in north of the state.
• More wheat is scheduled for June sowing and not too late for good yields.
• Wheat is the cheapest energy feed grain available as we go into winter.

• There is very strong demand for fodder through the central west particularly for lucerne as it is one of the few regions with limited supply still available. Bulk hay, particularly of lucerne in big squares is now in very short supply.
• Local growers are giving priority to their regular customers before supplying new customers from other regions.
• Cereal hay – Steady ($250-$300): There is very little supply locally in large squares. Cereal hay in small squares is in very short supply but trading at $8-10/bale to horse and hobby farm buyers.
• Lucerne -Steady – ($350-$400): Another price rise this week is indicative of the widespread competition for lucerne hay between chaff mills, traders and livestock buyers at the moment. Good quality small square bales are steady at around $10-12/bale.
• Straw – Steady ($115-$135): The Central West is not traditionally a big area for straw and there is not a huge supply.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($145-$155) – Low grade pasture hay is being snapped up by the livestock market for cheap forage where it is available. Supply is very limited as it is not a regular market for the region.

• Bega June rainfall total: 36mm (Ave: 50mm).
• YTD: 260mm (Ave: 369mm), compared to 645mm this time last year.
• Rains falling as we prepare this report. Good for flats grazing but getting cold on the hills.
• SFW Wheat $ -10 ($300 to $310). Wheat prices easier after the widespread rains of the prior week have ensured the establishment of the 2013 winter crops in NSW. Only milling wheats available from old crop now with exporter demand steady.
• Feed barley $ -5 ($278 to $288). Supplies dwindling across NSW with very strong northern NSW feedlot demand and container exports to China.
• Triticale $ -5 ($301 to $311). Triticale is currently trading on par wheat with some included in rations coming from Victoria.
• Oats: $ +5 ($290 to $300). Very strong demand for sheep feeding on Southern Tablelands and now too expensive for use in dairy rations.
• NSW grain prospects for incoming winter crops much improved but long way to go.
• More wheat in demand for energy as cows go into winter feeding cycle.

• After receiving an early autumn break the Bega valley has not seen the follow up rain that has fallen throughout other parts of NSW. Available paddock feed is getting low and there is concern over fodder supply for winter to this region.
• Supply to the region is coming from Central West NSW, the Southern Tablelands and the Riverina. There is strong competition in these supplying regions from livestock graziers and beef feedlots which is having an impact on increasing prices.
• Cereal Hay – +$25 – ($330- $350): Prices have increased again as supply tightens across the region and fodder is being freighted longer distances.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($350-$400): Buyers are searching further afield to source lucerne. In supplying regions demand is rapidly diminishing and there is increasing competition from the livestock sector due to the dry conditions.
• Straw – Steady ($140-180): There wasn’t a lot of straw made in the supplying regions and now there is strong competition from other sectors. With the lack of fibre available some growers have reported baling lower grade stubble as recently as the last few weeks.

• Tatura June rainfall: 51mm (Ave: 45mm).
• YTD: 166mm (Ave: 227mm), compared to 315mm this time last year.
• Raining as we prepare this report, but it looks like another 30mm+ potential and this has set up the 2013 crops for a very good start. More hectares will be planted into June as well.
• Wheat: $ +4 ($278 to $288). Only milling grades (ASW) now available and winter demand kicking in.
• F1 Barley: $ +0 ($254 to $264). Barley in tight supply and needs to be $20 discount to wheat to be viable for winter energy.
• Triticale: $ +5 ($269 to $279). Triticale is good buying at any discount to wheat.
• Feed Oats: $ +5 ($227 to $237). Sheep and horse feed only at these prices. Strathbogies demand.
• Grain prices may ease into second half 2013 as confidence in the 2013 crop prospects unfold.
• Murray Goulburn’s announcement of 24% increase in milk prices commencing July very well received. Expect other processors to have similar rises. Will give confidence to increase supplementary feeding over winter.

• The Goulburn Valley has finally received decent rainfall, improving confidence for both fodder growers and buyers for the season ahead.
• Demand for fodder remains high, however it is expected that panic buying, in preparation for drought, will now ease and that while demand for cereal hay will stay strong, the demand for protein hays such as lucerne and vetch will ease somewhat.
• Prices have remained steady across all fodder types this week.
• Cereal hay – Steady- ($330-$350) –Cereal hay is very hard to find anywhere in the country. Growers are still getting a lot of enquiries indicating demand remains very high and will stay high for the rest of winter. Prices are expected to remain fairly steady at this stage.
• Lucerne hay – Steady– ($350-$400) – Supply is now very low there are no reports of uncommitted lucerne locally. It is expected that demand for protein hay will start to ease following the rain over the past week.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$170) – Demand for straw has really picked up in the last few weeks. There is very limited straw available that isn’t under contract and buyers are becoming desperate to find straw to meet their winter requirements. On average straw is trading on farm between $110-$140t.
• Vetch – Steady– ($340 – 380) – Vetch is in very low supply this year and shortages may continue into 2014.

• Sale June rainfall: 66.2mm (Ave: 45.7mm).
• YTD: 226.8mm (Ave: 283.5mm), compared to 373mm this time last year.
• Local falls of over 30mm with localised flooding. Too late for really good pasture growth, so grain usage in bails on the rise with straw and hay being brought in.
• SFW Wheat: $ +8 ($321 to $331). Main grain in demand now for winter. Only milling wheat available.
• Barley: $ +0 ($291 to $301). Most Gippsland dairy farmers have been on wheat for long time.
• Triticale: $ +10 ($312 to $322). A little more triticale on offer following rains in NE Vic.
• Feed Oats: $ +10 ($248 to $258) Stronger demand for sheep feeding and for the horse trade. Expect to stay firm while there is demand from Strathbogies for horses.
• Much of the Victorian wheat was sold to major traders last harvest. Farmer and merchant stocks are lower than normal and are holding stocks tightly still.
• Murray Goulburn has announced 24% rise in milk prices from July. Very well received as well as the forward delivery of step up prices on spring milk production ahead of its delivery. Other milk processing plants likely to increase in line with MG.
• With better prices there is now more incentive to feed cows to increase winter cash flows.

• For graziers and dairy farmers recent rain in Gippsland has not eased their need for fodder coming into winter and therefore demand is still very high.
• Traders and buyers are finding it very difficult to source hay from the key supply regions due to low supply and strong competition.
• One major issue facing buyers in Gippsland is the cost of freight. Most competing buyers in the fodder market, outside of Gippsland, are not paying as much for freight and are therefore able to pay a little more for their fodder; this is driving the cost up. As a result the ability to source and pay for fodder through winter is now a serious concern through this region.
• Cereal Hay –Steady- ($350-$400) – Supply of cereal hay is very tight. As buyers work harder to secure very small quantities against competition that do not have as significant freight costs, prices delivered into Gippsland are becoming very high increasing, now getting close to $400t delivered.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($380-$420) – Local lucerne is already committed and the most common comment from traders trying to source any is that it simply isn’t available.
• Vetch – Steady –($400+) – There is very little available nationally. Regular buyers are encouraged to secure their vetch hay early, behind the baler in spring this year to avoid missing out in 2014.
• Straw – Steady -($200-$220) – There is still some straw sourced from the Western Districts and Central Victoria. High grade barley hay is priced between $120-$140 on farm, wheat straw is about $100-$110. The freight back to Gippsland is adding significant cost for buyers.
• Pasture – +Steady– ($280-$300) –Very short supply of any grade pasture hay across Southern Australia, including the usual local supply of round bale pasture which has been cleaned out.

• Port Fairy June rainfall: 59.4mm (Ave: 80.8mm).
• YTD: 288mm (Ave: 303.5mm), compared to 305.6mm this time last year.
• About 10-20mm across the region which will allow completion of planting of winter crops. More good rains across the main Victorian grain regions to the north, which will ensure the establishment of the 2013 winter crops.
• Not as much canola was sown.
• Silage now an important component of cows’ diets. Cereal straw being fed to dry stock to reduce expenditure on energy needs.
• SFW1 Wheat: $ +4 ($281 to $291). Only milling grades available and all red and feed wheats trading at same price.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($253 to $263). The discount to wheat is $30 a tonne, and some selling may occur from farms now that the new crop has had rain.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($280 to $290). Triticale is in demand, but only at a discount to wheat.
• Feed oat $ +5 ($231 to $241). Steady demand for sheep.
• Main problem for the region is lack of gazing feed for cows. Pastures were hard grazed over summer and autumn, so food is needed.
• Supply is tight – some combinations of straw for fibre and cheapness – and extra grain for energy that the straw lacks.
• Murray Goulburn has announced 24% rise in milk prices from July. Very well received as well as the forward delivery of step up prices on spring milk production ahead of its delivery. Other milk processing plants likely to increase in line with MG.
• With better prices there is now more incentive to feed cows to increase winter cash flows.

• With rain in South West Victoria and the key fodder supply regions such as the Wimmera –Mallee optimism from both growers and buyers has increased. A big fodder harvest is predicted for the region in 2013 if the seasonal conditions are favourable.
• Fodder supplies are still very low, however prices are remaining steady. Straw is the most sought after fodder at the moment.
• Fodder growers in the key supply regions are generally hanging onto stocks for their regular customers with any excess fodder already sold or being retained for on farm use.
• Cereal – Steady – ($350 – $370): It is extremely difficult to source cereal hay at the moment and most hay in storage is under contract. Prices increases are indicative of the very tight supply situation.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($350-$400): The usual suppliers of lucerne from North Central Victoria and South East South Australia are very low or completely out of stock. Prices are quickly rising as stocks run low.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$160): Supply for straw s starting to become low. There has been increased demand as buyers seek a cheaper source of fibre.
• Pasture hay – Steady- ($260 – $300): Pasture hay is in short supply and very difficult to source across the state.

• Mount Gambier June rainfall: 51.4mm (Ave: 83mm).
• YTD: 208.6mm (Ave: 296mm), compared to 225mm this time last year.
• Recent rains have greatly improved the yield prospects of both eastern South Australia and western Victoria.
• Local soils are now sufficiently wet for winter. Feed will come, but it may not be till late July.
• Wheat $ +6 ($295 to $305). Improved outlook for 2013 winter crops but only milling grades left from old crop.
• Feed barley $ +2 ($255 to $265). At a $40 discount to wheat, but wheat will be in demand as winter approaches.
• Triticale $ +5 ($285 to $295). Good buying at a discount to wheat and some supply in SE South Aust.
• Oat prices $ +3 ($222 to $232) More interest in oats from sheep and wool producers. Too expensive for its feed value to cattle.
• General expectation of lower grain prices into second half 2013 if the winter crop turns out at average yields.
• Murray Goulburn has announced 24% rise in milk prices from July. Very well received as well as the forward delivery of step up prices on spring milk production ahead of its delivery. Other milk processing plants likely to increase in line with MG.
• With better milk prices there is now more incentive to feed cows to increase winter cash flows.

• Prices have stayed steady this week and demand is starting to plateau. Graziers, who were the most active buyers throughout May, are now taking the time to review their fodder situation and are weighing up the cost of buying feed.
• Straw is in highest demand, particularly from the dairy sector, as buyers seek fibre to supplement green feed at a lower cost than cereal hay.
• With more rain this week optimism is lifting in the region, particularly for fodder growers. Contractors are predicting a big fodder harvest in 2013 if the conditions right.
• Cereal –Steady- ($300-$330): Cereal hay is becoming very difficult to source. The exporters have released some product onto the domestic market but supply is limited.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($320-$360): Supply is very low through the Naracoorte, Keith regions. Growers with excess Lucerne are considering their own needs for winter before trading hay as temperatures start to drop.
• Straw – Steady – ($140-$160): Enquiry for straw has started to increase however there is little available throughout SA.
• Pasture – Steady -($250-280): Pasture has been snapped up early by the livestock buyers and is becoming harder to source now.

• Murray Bridge June rainfall: 79.6mm (Ave: 37.6mm).
• YTD: 168.2mm (Ave: 154.4mm). 207.5mm this time last year.
• Excellent rains across most of SA grain regions with most receiving 25+mm. This assures the establishment of the crop.
• Wheat $ +7 ($272 to $282). Wheat prices firmer with exporter bids for milling wheats.
• Feed barley $ +3 ($233 to $243), The discount to wheat is making barley a more attractive feeding option for cows than wheat, but wheat demand will rise for winter feeding.
• Triticale $ +10 ($265 to $275). Good buying at discount to wheat.
• Feed oats $ +0 ($213 to $223). Oat prices may ease in coming weeks as paddock feed increases after the rains.
• SA milk producers waiting for new season milk price announcements after Murray Goulburn lifted milk prices by 24% from July.

• Prices remain high in the region and any fodder available is moving big distances to fill the supply shortage in Southern Australia. As a result fodder supply locally is getting very low.
• Straw is particularly difficult to source as most growers with straw are holding it for regular clients.
• Exporters have released some fodder to the domestic market however there isn’t a huge supply.
• Cereal Hay – +$20- ($280-$300) –Where cereal hay is available, quality is very high however the quantities are low and most fodder in storage is already committed to regular domestic or export customers.
• Lucerne – Steady- ($300+) – Low supply is due to limited acreages and poor results from dryland lucerne in SA this year. There appears to be no big quantities of Lucerne available anywhere on the domestic market.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$130) – Any straw on farm is likely to be under contract but demand from the domestic market is fairly quiet at this stage.
• Vetch – Steady ($300+) – Where available growers are asking top dollar for good quality vetch hay, there is very little now available.

• Bunbury June rainfall: 0mm (Ave: 147.8mm).
• YTD: 198.4mm (Ave: 309.2mm), compared to 158.4mm this time last year.
• 15-20mm in dairy areas this week and growing conditions excellent with feed still growing
• With the exception of the north-eastern wheat belt, the WA winter crop is off to a good start. Esperance and Great Southern in good shape.
• Wheat: $ +0 ($311 to $321). Prices steady with only milling wheat now available.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($290 to $300). Wheat preferred for energy as winter sets in.
• Triticale $ +0 ($290 to $300). Triticale is competitive with feed wheat at these prices and more being offered to Perth processors. Sales this week from Esperance at $295 delivered Perth.
• Oats +0 ($220 to $230). The current demand is from sheep producers for their winter feeding needs.
• More grower selling from warehouse as the 2013 crop outlook improves.

• Pricing has remained consistent in WA over the past few weeks. WA is one of the few locations nationally with some fodder reserves, particularly of cereal hay and straw. However a lot of the fodder in storage is committed.
• Lucerne hay is in short supply as which is due to production ceasing coming into winter.
• The season is looking promising so far with good rain favouring growers, who are finishing up planting for the year. Growers are fairly optimistic about the outlook for the fodder harvest at this stage.
• Cereal hay – Steady – ($180-$250): There has been an oversupply of high grade new season hay and could be some carry over. There is competition for the lower grade hay which is pushing the price up.
• Lucerne – Steady ($400-$500) – Demand for Lucerne has increased, supply is running low and chaff mills are active buyers of premium quality hay. The main domestic activity is from local horse markets and prices are peaking at around $470/t on farm.
• Straw – Steady ($90-$120): There is some lower grade straw around that didn’t make export grade after being rained on before baling.
• Pasture – Steady ($110 – $130): There seems to be good stocks of pasture hay available to trade.

• Smithton June rainfall: 29.6mm (Ave: 104mm).
• YTD: 252.4mm (Ave: 369.2mm), compared to 366.6mm this time last year.
• 20mm this last week to make it very wet and cold and boggy conditions.
• Great rains across South East Aust has markedly improved crop outlook for 2013.
• Wheat $ +5 ($390 to $400). Red and white feed wheats and milling grades all trading on par. May see more wheat selling from mainland warehousing after June 30.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($370 to $380). The price of feed barley is competitive versus wheat, but expect to see more wheat used as winter arrives.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($368 to $378). Mainland triticale is on offer. To be useful it must be cheaper than wheat, and may see some sellers from NE Vic
• Oats prices $ +5 ($310 to $320). Market stronger as autumn ewe and lamb demand kicks in from Midlands.
• Grain prices expected to ease into second half 2013 if the winter crop achieves average yields.
• Victorian dairy co-operative Murray Goulburn has announced milk prices up 24% commencing July.
• This has raised expectancy for similar price increases for other milk processing plants for export purposes.
• With better prices there will be more incentive to feed cows to increase winter cash flows.

• Tasmania has not received a decent break as yet and paddock feed is in short supply, as is fodder. There is a definite shortage of supply in Tasmania and contractors are already anticipating a big fodder harvest in spring if growing conditions improve.
• Prices have increased this week; however with the very small quantities of fodder available for trading it is very difficult to accurately assess prices.
• Cereal Hay – +$60 – ($270-$290): Stocks are very low due to lack of production for fodder and high competition in the grain sector.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$350): Lucerne supplies are limited; silage in particular is in high demand but not easy to source.
• Straw – Steady – ($135-$145): Given the dry conditions the quality of straw is high and is starting to move now, with demand at this time of year coming from mainland mushroom growers.
• Pasture Hay – +$50 – ($230-$250): The supply of pasture hay is just not available this year, especially good quality pasture hay. Many growers are moving to pasture production for fodder in 2013 as opposed to grain.