Hay Report – 25 May 2018

National Summary

• There is strong demand for feed right throughout the country and price firms accordingly as supply diminishes.
• Cooler temperatures are being reported right across the east and south of Australia, with minimal rainfall reported. There does not really appear to be a clear break noted across the country, which is fairly dry with the exception of small pockets concentrated around parts of Tasmania and the South-East corner of Australia.
• The NSW Government has announced transport grants for farmers severely impacted by drought this week, after farmers are forced to feed stock at high prices or sell off. There was some rain passing through the region but follow-up events are needed.
• It has been a late start to the planting season with many farmers hesitant to seed in the past month, without forecasted breaks or follow up rain. There have also been reports of staggered growth and mouldy seed, without substantial follow-up rain to encourage germination in Victoria.
• It will be interesting to see what the future market holds: farmers expected carryover stockpiles from 2016 to maintain over the winter and chose to plant less accordingly. However the market has since turned and sheds appear to be emptying very quickly.
• After weeks of rising enquiry, demand appears to have hit a peak in central New South Wales and is plateauing. This may be due to farmers selling off stock.
• This week has seen a firm in prices right around the country. Supplies are diminishing and fodder is becoming difficult to source. We recommend feed-testing fodder before purchasing to be sure of quality of feed.

National Commentary

Northern Australia – Summary

• Straw and lucerne is becoming difficult to source.
• Alternative fodder supplies such as almond hulls and cottonseed is impacting on the fodder market at present.
• Securing long term, reliable supplies of quality hay may well be an issue for the north as the year progresses with demand expected to be greater than supply.

Southern Australia – Summary

• New season hay is selling quickly and carryover stocks from 2016 is moving across Victoria, New South Wales, Tasmania and South Australia.
• Demand is exceeding supply in Central West New South Wales and predicted in Northern Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia.
• Protein enquiry is strong and expected to remain. Lucerne, vetch and straw supply is beginning to deplete.
• Due to high levels of persistent rainfall in spring, we recommend obtaining a mould and yeast test, a feed test, and using a trusted a supplier.

Western Australia – Summary

• Local domestic demand is very strong and it’s reportedly difficult to source supplies. The export market is supporting this strong domestic demand. 
• Demand for carryover hay from the northern WA sheep and beef industries is strong and should continue.
• The export industry continues to dominate the WA market and is a solid indicator on pricing.  Exporters continue to seek out quality hay and as a result, will set the price in the market for quality hay.

Regional Commentary

Atherton Tablelands

• The Tablelands are having mixed weather reports this week with sunny and fine days reported early in the week and currently drizzly weather again which is enough to disrupt activity on farm.
• Interestingly, demand for hay for mulching avocado trees is strong at the moment after increase in investments in this industry.
• There has been a slight increase in demand but nothing major to report.
• There is no price change noted this week.
• Pasture hay: +/-$0 ($250 to $300/t). Prices remain steady this week
• Note: Hay in the Atherton Tablelands is traditionally priced at $/bale, so it is important to check bale weights for conversion.

Darling Downs

• The weather has been cool this week in the Darling Downs with no rainfall.
• There has not been much fodder planted yet, as planting is mostly determined by rainfall in this region. Farmers are waiting on substantial rainfall for hay planting. There is reportedly not much roughage such as barley and wheat straw in the market and there have been reports of a large order of almond hulls from a local feedlot.
• Moderate demand is reported this week across the Downs, with slightly stronger demand in drier areas such as Warwick. Farmers are securing hay where possible. There is very limited supply of cereal lucerne and straw in this region however there is some pasture hay selling for $250-300 per tonne delivered.
• Lucerne hay prices have firmed this week.
• Cereal hay: +/-$0 ($320 to $380/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Lucerne hay: +$20 ($400 to $540/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Straw: +/-$0 ($250 to $320/t). Prices remain steady this week.

North Coast NSW

• The Northern Rivers have had fine weather all week. The western areas near Tenterfield have begun to get frosts.
• Farmers are busy cutting and baling pasture before the frosts hit. They are also cutting rice straw. Some farmers have started to plant oats.
• External demand is fairly strong and has picked up in the last fortnight. Local demand is not overly strong, but farmers are looking to secure hay for the winter.
• Vetch is selling for $400-450 per tonne delivered. Prices of lucerne and straw have firmed.
• Cereal hay: +/-$0 ($280 to $300/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Lucerne hay: +$50 ($400 to $450/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Straw: +$65 ($250 to $300/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Pasture hay: +/-$0 ($300 to $350/t). Prices remain steady this week.

Central West NSW

• There is no rain reported this week. Forecasts predict rainfall in the second week in June.
• The Government has announced transport grants to support farmers affected by drought. Farmers may decide to change their crops due to inadequate summer and autumn rain.
• Rainfall is too infrequent and patchy for a consensus on planting strategy in this region.
• There has mostly been grazing crops sewn this month but not for grain or hay. Not much canola has been planted thus far despite the planting window drawing to a close. Reportedly, there might be a frantic planting of barley late in the season.
• Demand has hit a peak and is plateauing for this region. Lucerne is hard to source, as it’s already committed.
• Farmers have been offloading stock. Hay is being sourced from Victoria and South Australia where available and low-grade carryover from 2016 is moving. Export reserves are being acquired.    
• No price changes noted.
• Cereal hay:  +/-$0 ($250 to $320/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Lucerne hay: +/-$0 ($350 to $450/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Straw: +/-$0 ($80 to $130/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Pasture hay: +/-$0 ($180 to $250/t). Prices remain steady this week.

Bega Valley

• There has been no rain in Bega this week. There was 25-30mm reported a fortnight ago but soils are still dry.           
• Farmers have now pulled up on planting in this area due to lack of moisture however more oats might be sewn with rain. 
• Most of the irrigated winter ryegrasses, oats and cereals are in, with still no autumn break. There is lots of fodder being fed out on farm as paddocks are bare.
• Hay is in high demand but supply is extremely limited. Hay is being transported from South Australia or the Riverina but it’s very hard to source. Demand is expecting to exceed supply for Bega.
• Cereal and pasture prices have firmed.
• Cereal hay: +$70 ($300 to $360/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Lucerne hay: +/-$0 ($350 to $400/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Straw: +/-$0 ($140 to $170/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Pasture hay: +$70 ($200 to $300/t). Prices have firmed this week.

Goulburn/Murray Valley

• No rain reported this week but there is some showery weather forecasted for next week.   
• The seasons planting is very close to complete for the area.      
• Demand is quite strong and there is diminishing supply of hay in the Goulburn Murray Valley region. There is limited supply of lucerne. It is reported that most visible hay on farm is spoken for.
• Prices have firmed this week.
• Cereal hay: +$35 ($100 to $230/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Lucerne hay: +$10 ($250 to $300/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Straw: +/-$0 ($90 to $100/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Pasture hay: +/-$0 ($150 to180/t). Prices remain steady this week.

Gippsland

• West and South Gippsland is faring better than East Gippsland which has not yet experienced a break in rainfall, despite cooler temperatures.
• Current on farm activity is sewing pastures and annual ryegrasses but the illusive autumn break is limiting activity in the East. There is very little grass available to graze.
• Hay is increasingly hard to source and there is a lot more enquiry. Demand is strong and there are regular truckloads coming in from the west.           
• No price change noted this week.
• Cereal hay: +/-$0 ($160 to $300/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Lucerne hay: +/-$0 ($350 to $400/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Straw: +/-$0 ($140 to $170/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Pasture hay: +/-$0 ($120 to $240/t). Prices remain steady this week.

Southwest Victoria

• Western district has had a varying amount of rainfall this week ranging from 50-150mm, with some land reportedly too wet.
• Most planting has finished for now with farmers hoping for some more sunshine, as growth is slow and there are reports of staggered, mouldy and patchy germination.  
• Local demand is solid for this area and has been very strong for the past two weeks. It is reportedly very difficult to source hay; particularly lucerne and pasture. There is some limited second grade vetch and cereal available. It is to be advised that full hay sheds are misleading – this is most likely committed and not for sale. Strong demand is expected to continue and it is forecasted that hay will be very difficult to secure in one month.
• Second grade Vetch is reportedly selling at $250-$315 per tonne delivered.
• Other hay prices have firmed and expected to continue to firm.
• Cereal hay: +$50 ($150 to $250/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Lucerne hay: +$20($250 to $350/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Straw: +$15($100 to $150/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Pasture hay: +/-$0 ($110 to $160/t). Prices remain steady this week.

Southeast South Australia

• There has been mostly clear weather this week with a couple of drizzly days reported. Land in the Southeast is looking quite moist and green.
• Seeding is underway with farmers re-sewing pasture, wheat and barley and broad beans won’t be too far away.
• Local demand has picked up in the last fortnight with trucks moving around the region.
•  No price changes noted this week.
• Cereal hay: +/-$0 ($60 to $160/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Lucerne hay: +/-$0 ($160 to $250/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Straw: +/-$0 ($60 to $90/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Pasture hay: +/-$0 ($70 to 160/t). Prices remain steady this week.

Central South Australia

• There has been no rain this week however there is 10-20mm forecasted for next week.
• Most of the seeding for the region will be finished within the next week. Some farmers have increased planting by 25% from last year after the recent clearing of carryover hay.
• Local demand is strong. Current demand is expected to sustain the market for some time as the winter creeps in and some producers are retaining private stocks. External demand continues to be strong, ranging from mid to northern South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.           
• Cereal and lucerne prices have firmed.
• Cereal hay: +$5 ($140 to $170/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Lucerne hay: +$15 ($250 to $330/t). Prices have firmed this week.
• Straw: +/-$0 ($80 to $130/t). Prices remain steady this week.

Southwest Western Australia

• It’s unseasonal and dry. There has been no rain in May.
• Regular dry-seeding is continuing for this region which is slightly behind schedule by a couple of weeks. Farmers are relying upon a break, which has yet to be seen.
• Local domestic demand is very strong and it’s reportedly difficult to source supplies. The export market is supporting the strong domestic demand. 
• Cereal hay: +/-$0 ($100 to $250/t). Prices remain steady this week.
• Lucerne hay: +/-$0 ($450 to $490). Prices remain steady this week.
• Straw: +/-$0 ($80 to 140/t) Prices remain steady this week.
• Pasture hay: +/-$0 ($80 to $200/t). Prices remain steady this week.

Northwest Tasmania

• Reportedly winter has set in for Tasmania with cool days and evenings and drizzly weather.           
• On-farm activity includes planting mixtures of grass and clover, barley and wheat.           
• Demand for fodder is quite strong in the northwest dairy region and in the dry eastern areas, which is expected to continue for some time.      
• Prices haven’t changed but expected increase to in June.
• Cereal hay: +/-$0 ($160 to $220/t) Prices remain steady this week.
• Lucerne hay: +/-$0 ($220 to $300/t) Prices remain steady this week.
• Straw: +/-$0 ($100 to $140/t) Prices remain steady this week.
• Pasture hay: +/-$0 ($140 to $190/t) Prices remain steady this week.