Grain – Hay Report – 27 June 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• Crop prospects around the world continue to support the view of a downward price direction for last half 2013. However any news of new demand, especially for old crop (i.e., pre August 2013), gives the market a reason to stay strong – as has happened with recent news of some Chinese grain buying.
• Winter wheat harvest is under way in the northern hemisphere. The plantings of soybeans, corn and spring wheat crops are virtually complete, so the stage still seems set for bigger crops and stocks over the course of 2013/14, with the constant caveat, SUBJECT TO normal weather over the next few months! Another USDA report is due out on 28 June and it will be an important pointer to the way the market shapes up for the next month or so.
• The local crops in Australia are advancing well for this early in the season, but as we know it is the spring weather which really sets the yield. Weather will continue to play a key part in 2013/14 until the supply risk is taken off the table. Old crop supply of both feedgrains and oilseeds is very tight, so the market does not seem prepared to move to lower prices till we get closer to seeing that supply in the bin (say September).
• Local grain prices are now close to where they were at harvest, so we may see some more grower selling which would also coincide with receiving crop payments after July 1 which attracts some growers in managing their cash flow.
• The local grain market has been fairly firm in the last week with wheat and barley prices a few dollars higher in most east coast locations, although sorghum remains very strong and is up another $10-12 in northern NSW and Darling Downs. This reflects the relatively tight supply of feed grains on the east coast, strong beef feedlot demand, regular Chinese buying for containers and potentially some traders short for export shipments of sorghum. Having a price target in mind as to where acceptable margins can be achieved is an important risk management approach in years like this.
• If all the stars line up around the world for good crops between now and October 2013, a price drop of $50 by Christmas would not be a surprise – but we can’t bank on this yet because there are too many weather variables to say it will definitely happen.
• It is apparent that some growers are holding remaining grain (and there is less in farmers’ hands this year than usual) until they feel confident of the next season. As a result, there can be wide margins between buying and selling ideas at times.
• The most important question for dairy farmers is not trying to pick the bottom, but to make a start on covering some of their forward grain needs if the quoted prices allow them to make a margin, taking into account the 2013/14 milk pricing which has been announced by the milk processors over the last month.

National Summary – Hay:

• It’s now 10 weeks till spring and with fodder supplies very low in most parts of the country, growers and contractors are expecting a big fodder harvest in 2013 if the seasonal conditions work in their favour.
• However despite some good falls of rain in parts of eastern Australia, including Central West NSW and the North Coast of NSW, most of the key fodder growing regions are becoming very dry and this could reduce fodder yields expected in 2013.
• This week prices have remained fairly steady. This is due to the lack of hay available for trading across the key dairy regions as well as the limited cash flow of buyers which is restricting their ability to pay prices for fodder not seen since the drought in 2007/2008.
• Lucerne in Central West NSW this week reportedly peaked at $420t considered to be record high prices only seen previously during the drought in 2008.
• With the onset of winter and the cooler temperatures pasture growth has slowed and paddock feed is low in most dairy regions. Buyers are finding it very difficult to source hay of any variety to supplement pastures and as their cash flows become more restricted are looking at alternative fodder sources such as Almond hulls from South Australia. Presently almond hulls can be sourced for around $115/t delivered to the Goulburn Valley.
• In previous drought years fodder has been sourced from the Northern Territory, however dry conditions in that region are causing buyers to seek fodder from Central SA and other regions to sustain their own requirements.
• Some exporters have been able to turn small quantities of cereal hay back onto the domestic market but this supply is not going to sustain winter.
• WA still has a supply of cereal hay being held by exporters and some growers, however the season is becoming very dry and it is unlikely they will release fodder to the domestic market until they have more certainty in the 2013 fodder harvest.
• The cost of freight for hay out of WA is also an impeding factor buyers wanting to source fodder from this region.
• A common trend we are seeing is growers who have a relationship with their supplier have been able to source their fodder and avoid paying extremely high prices. This is something to consider coming into the 2013 fodder harvest. Fodder is already in short supply and there will be very little, if any carry over fodder into 2014. Buyers are urged to consider their fodder needs for 2014 and initiate discussions with their suppliers or hay traders as early in the hay season as possible. Fodder supplies in 2014 are dependent on the 2013 spring.
• We are hearing more and more reports of both buyers and sellers getting burnt in fodder transactions as the market becomes tighter. It is important to ensure that both buyers and sellers look out for themselves by using written contracts for all fodder transactions, especially in current circumstances. If you would like more information on written contracts for hay please contact the AFIA office on 03 9530 2199.
• As fodder is moved greater distances freight is starting to have a big impact on price.
• Demand for hay from feedlots in QLD is starting to increase as Western QLD and areas in the Northern Territory have stayed extremely dry, with station owners opting to destock rather than freight hay.
• Supply of fodder is a particular concern for South East, SA, South West Victoria, Tasmania and Gippsland. In these areas freight is the biggest cost as local growers are struggling to meet the increasing demand for fodder.
• In order to assist struggling Victoria Graziers and dairy farmers the VFF has initiated a fodder register for growers and buyers to register their fodder or their requirements. To learn more contact the VFF or visit their website vff.org.au

This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

Notes: Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.

Notes: Hay prices are delivered, GST exclusive based on shedded hay without weather damage, of good quality and colour. It should be noted there is a wide variation in quality for hay, so prices are indicative for a mid-range product.

• Mareeba June rainfall: 3.2 (Ave: 8.5mm).
• YTD: 701mm (Ave: 726). Rainfall for this time last year was 799mm.
• The winter dry is starting to take hold.
• Wheat: $+1 ($386 to $396). Mostly human consumption wheat available only now.
• Barley: $ +4 ($432 to $442). Priced out of consideration again, due to scarcity.
• Corn prices $ +5 ($388 to $398). Has a role. Better if heat-treated. Scout for any local feed corn discoloured by wet weather.
• Sorghum: $ +34 ($373 to $383). This rise is over two weeks. CQ sorghum and southern sorghum is sought by China currently, for bulk and container shipment, dry conditions in CQ are helping to lower grain moisture without artificial drying.
• Central Queenslands main sorghum harvest is in progress; it is currently the cheapest feed source apart from any local off grade corn.

• Far west QLD is experiencing very dry conditions and the impact is a higher demand for fodder from the Atherton Tablelands. Rhodes grass is being baled is still being baled and shipped West to stations who are desperate to find fodder for their weaned cattle.
• Pasture Hay – Steady ($255-275): Supplies of hay are lower than usual, after a dry wet season; however the quality is good as baling conditions have been favourable.

• Toowoomba June rainfall: 40mm (Ave: 37mm).
• YTD: 846mm (Ave: 397mm), compared to 421mm this time last year.
• Good rain for winter crops this week will allow grain on heavy clays to germinate.
• Wheat: $ 6 ($341 to $351). Wheat is the preferred energy feed grain for winter, shortage of feed grades has directed dairy home mixes towards sorghum.
• Feed Barley: $ +18 ($346 to $356). A stiff increase exemplifies its shortage. More value at these high prices to specialist feedlots than for milking cows.
• Corn $ +5 ($335 to $345). Limited appeal, with prices equal to wheat it deserves some attention.
• Sorghum: $ 28 ($333 to $343). Strong export buying, mostly to China. Bulk shipments and bulk in containers out of the Brisbane river.
• Dairy pellets have switched to sorghum as their main energy component.
• Sorghum cheapest grain source now for cow home mixes.

• Baling summer crops and pasture hay is coming to an end on the Downs.
• While demand for fodder is strong prices have remained steady this week due to the lack of fodder available.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($330-$360): Cereal hay is in particularly short supply nationally and is very difficult to source.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($400-$450): Lucerne in large squares is hard to source in the region, and is in short supply across the country also. The horse and hobby markets are the most active buyers presently and paying $12-15/bale for premium quality lucerne where it is available.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$150): Feedlots active buyers. The quality is good but there isn’t a lot of reserve stock available locally.
• Pasture – Steady- ($180-$200): Baling has now finished for summer pastures. There is strong demand from lot feeders and station owners for pasture hay which is driving the price up. Buyers are attempting to secure enough rations for winter.

• Lismore June rainfall total: 57mm (Ave: 118mm).
• YTD: 903mm (Ave: 789mm), compared to 816mm this time last year.
• SFW Wheat: $ +6 ($374 to $384). Very expensive due to all the lower wheat grades being consumed. Wheat offered up for sale now will just be for human consumption, hence carrying the price.
• Feed Barley: $ +20 ($399 to $409). Doesn’t have a place in dairy feeds at this time; try to avoid the freight cost that would come with a barley purchase.
• Corn $ +10 ($380 to $390). Feed corn has more acceptance in this region than others because corn supply sources are closer, discoloured feed corn from the coastal soils should be at a discount to our tabled prices.
• Sorghum: $ +25 ($338 to $348). Strong rise comes from aggressive bidding for container and bulk shipments of sorghum to China. Local sorghum not likely to make export grades so try for discounts. Try to avoid long grain hauls.

• Local supply of fodder is low due to poor baling conditions for both hay and silage earlier this year. Unlike dairy regions in southern NSW and Victoria, Northern NSW had good pasture growth through autumn which has taken pressure off hay supply throughout autumn and leading up to winter.
• Demand has now started to pick up from dairies who are supplementing their pasture with cereal hay; however sourcing the product is very difficult.
• Graziers are also in the market for fodder, choosing to wean calves and feed them as opposed to selling into a very weak cattle market. These buyers are seeking lower grade Rhodes grass hay which is in low supply locally.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($260-$300): There is very little available locally and nationally and local traders are finding is difficult to source.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($300-$350): There is very little quality lucerne available locally. Supply is particularly tight for small squares which are trading at $12/bale.
• Pasture Hay – +$15 – ($160-$200): With more graziers supplementary feeding cattle this year there has been increasing demand for pasture hay. The quality is good but supply is low and it will quickly become hard to source pasture hay locally.

• Forbes June rainfall: 119mm (Ave: 47mm).
• YTD: 305mm (Ave: 225mm), compared to 454 this time last year.
• About 10mm this week which will help emerging crops
• SFW Wheat: $ -10 ($260 to $270). Only milling grades now available, but some selling following the rains.
• F1 Barley: $ -8 ($244 to $254). Getting back to a normalised price, less favoured for cows as wheat in the colder months.
• Corn $ -10 ($380 to $390). Has a very limited appeal, not worth buying unless a $40 premium to wheat per tonne.
• Sorghum $ +25 ($388 to $398). A stiff increase in freight inhibits its use with the road freight from northern summer crop areas. Any local sorghum that emerges should be good.
• Commentators are optimistic about wheat and barley yields.
• Increased crop sowings over June on the heavier soils that were not wet at the start of the month
• Improved milk prices from July will help dairy farmer cash flows.

• Strong demand for fodder continues throughout the Central West, key buyers are in the chaff mills, feedlots and hobby farmers. Bulk hay, particularly lucerne in big squares is now in very short supply.
• This week there was a report of premium grade lucerne trading at $420t on farm. This is equivalent to record high prices not seen since the drought in 2007/2008.
• Cereal hay – Steady ($250-$300): There is very little supply locally in large squares. Cereal hay in small squares is in very short supply but trading at $8-10/bale to horse and hobby farm buyers.
• Lucerne -+$20 – ($350-$400): The lack of supply of Lucerne in big squares and increased demand for premium grade Lucerne by the chaff mills, who are experiencing a shortage of supply, has resulted in the price increase this week. Good quality small square bales remain steady at around $10-12/bale, although demand for small squares is increasing from customers who can’t source big squares.
• Straw – Steady ($115-$135): The Central West is not traditionally a big area for straw and there is not a huge supply.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($145-$155) – Low grade pasture hay is being snapped up by the livestock market for cheap forage where it is available. Supply is very limited as it is not a regular market for the region.

• Bega June rainfall total: 110mm (Ave: 52mm).
• YTD: 335mm (Ave: 363mm), compared to 646mm this time last year.
• 52 mm just the week passed from Tuesday.
• SFW Wheat $ -9 ($291 to $301). Prices may recover if the Australian dollar continues to slide. Incoming wheat crop prospects improved over the last two weeks.
• Feed barley $ -8 ($270 to $280), Likely to come back into contention at the end of July with more energy coming from pastures.
• Triticale $ -10 ($291 to $301). Closely following the wheat trade for this region.
• Oats: $ +0 ($290 to $300). Still fairly useful for sheep
• If the Australian dollar goes lower expect feed grain prices to recover.
• Best feed on hill paddocks comes after dressings of urea.

• Supply to the region is coming from Central West NSW, the Southern Tablelands and the Riverina. There is strong competition in these supplying regions from sheep and cattle graziers which is driving price up. These supply regions are now becoming under extreme pressure to meet supply as there is very limited fodder available.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($280- $320): Prices have increased again as supply tightens across the region and fodder is being freighted longer distances.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($350-$400): Buyers are searching further afield to source lucerne. In supplying regions demand is rapidly diminishing and there is increasing competition from the livestock sector due to the dry conditions.
• Straw – Steady ($140-180): There wasn’t a lot of straw made in the supplying regions and now there is strong competition from other sectors. High prices are reflecting the lack of supply.

• Tatura June rainfall: 53mm (Ave: 45mm).
• YTD: 167mm (Ave: 226mm), compared to 340mm this time last year.
• Region had 5-10mm over the fortnight which hasn’t really been needed, cropping and pasture soils nicely wet 30-40cm down.
• Wheat: $ +0 ($278 to $288). Only milling grades now available.
• F1 Barley: $ +0 ($254 to $264). Barley in tight supply with concerns re new crop plantings.
• Triticale: $ +5 ($264 to $274). Triticale is good buying at any discount to wheat.
• Feed Oats: $ +0 ($232 to $242). Sheep and horse feed only at these prices.
• Expect improved grass production over July on paddocks with applied urea.
• More newly sown ryegrass paddocks for late spring early summer grass production.
• Improved incoming crop prospects on the back of the heavy general rains across grain growing regions.

• Prices have remained steady this week and this is mostly due to the difficulty in sourcing hay of any kind, coupled with the high price of hay on farm and cost of freight over long distances if it can be sourced outside the region. These factors are influencing buyers to seek alternate sources of fodder including almond hulls and canola meal as a more cost effective and accessible fodder source in the present market.
• Cereal hay – Steady- ($330-$350) –Cereal hay is very hard to find anywhere in the country. Growers are still getting a lot of enquiries indicating demand remains very high and the only ones that aren’t missing out are customers who have made arrangements with their suppliers earlier in the year.
• Lucerne hay – Steady – ($350-$400) – Supply is now very low there are no reports of uncommitted lucerne locally. Lucerne is being sourced in small quantities from as far away as SA and Central West NSW. These regions do not have large quantities and regular customers are being looked after as a priority by growers. Small squares are also hard to source and are trading at around $14/bale on farm.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$170) – Demand for straw has really picked up in the last few weeks. There is very limited straw available that isn’t under contract and buyers are becoming desperate to find straw to meet their winter requirements. On average straw is trading on farm between $110-$140t.
• Vetch – Steady – ($380- $400) – There are no reports of vetch trading under $300/t on farm now and supplies are very low nationally. It is worth noting that dry sowing of vetch in the Mallee has commenced but rainfall has been scarce. This gives an early indication that vetch crops planned for hay in 2013 may perform poorly and be low yielding. Therefore a vetch shortage into 2014 may be likely.

• Sale June rainfall: 159mm (Ave: 46mm).
• YTD: 320mm (Ave: 284mm), compared to 392 this time last year.
• Another 20mm through west Gippsland limiting grazing options.
• SFW Wheat: $ +0 ($321 to $331). A bit of instability during the fortnight but the result has seen prices unchanged.
• Barley: $ +5 ($296 to $306). Wheat currently favoured for higher energy, buying for August delivery has increased.
• Triticale: $ +5 ($317 to $327).
• Feed Oats: $ 0 ($248 to $258) Low appeal to dairy farmers. Not enough energy for the space they occupy within the rumen.
• Much of the Victorian wheat was sold to major traders last harvest. Farmer and merchant stocks are lower than normal and are holding stocks tightly still.
• The falling Australian dollar has seen cash prices stabilise against future prices.
• Very heavy rains two weeks ago causing some local flooding Thompson River and Snowy river.

• Fodder prices have remained steady this week due to the lack of fodder available for trading.
• For graziers and dairy farmers recent rain in Gippsland has not eased their need for fodder coming into winter and therefore demand is still very high.
• Traders and buyers are finding it very difficult to source hay from the key supply regions due to low supply and strong competition.
• One major issue facing buyers in Gippsland is the cost of freight. Most competing buyers in the fodder market, outside of Gippsland, are not paying as much for freight and are therefore able to pay a little more for their fodder; this is driving the cost up. As a result the ability to source and pay for fodder through winter is now a serious concern through this region.
• Cereal Hay –Steady- ($350-$400) – Supply of cereal hay is very tight. As buyers work harder to secure very small quantities against competition that do not have as significant freight costs, prices delivered into Gippsland are becoming very high increasing, now getting close to $400t delivered.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($380-$420) – Local lucerne is already committed and the most common comment from traders trying to source any is that it simply isn’t available.
• Vetch – Steady –($400+) – There is very little available nationally. With a poor start to the main vetch growing regions it is very likely there will be a vetch shortage in 2014. Regular buyers are encouraged to secure their vetch hay early, behind the baler in spring this year to avoid missing out in 2014.
• Straw –Steady- ($200-$220) – There is still some straw sourced from the Western Districts and Central Victoria. High grade barley hay is priced between $120-$140 on farm; wheat straw is about $100-$110. The freight back to Gippsland is adding significant cost for buyers.
• Pasture – Steady– ($280-$300) –Very short supply of any grade pasture hay across Southern Australia, including the usual local supply of round bale pasture which has been cleaned out.

• Port Fairy May rainfall: 85.2mm (Ave: 83.3mm).
• YTD: 313.8mm (Ave: 307mm), compared to 374.5mm this time last year.
• Western District crops are secure with a normal winter rainfall.
• Not as much canola was sown.
• Dairy farmers seeking grain to give energy to allow their cows to produce milk close to their genetic potential
• SFW1 Wheat: $ +0 ($281 to $291). GP wheat trading at an equal value to ASW and APW as stocks become low. Wheat prospects for next season have improved dramatically with solid rain.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($253 to $263). Barley prices steady but supplies becoming really tight.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($280 to $290). Triticale is in demand, but only at a discount to wheat. Very little grown on the West Coast this year.
• Feed oat $ +0 ($231 to $241). Steady demand for sheep but set to ease over July
• Improved incoming crop prospects have caused domestic end users who were previously outbidding potential exporters now content to leave supply requirements uncovered.

• Fodder growers in the key supply regions are generally hanging onto stocks for their regular customers with any excess fodder already sold or being retained for on farm use.
• Cereal – Steady – ($350 – $370): It is extremely difficult to source cereal hay at the moment and most hay in storage is under contract. Prices increases are indicative of the very tight supply situation.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($350-$400): The usual suppliers of lucerne from North Central Victoria and South East South Australia are very low or completely out of stock. Prices are quickly rising as stocks run low.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$160): There is still some straw sourced from the Western Districts and Central Victoria. High grade barley hay is priced between $120-$140 on farm; wheat straw is about $100-$110.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($260 – $300): Pasture hay is in short supply and very difficult to source across the state.

• Mount Gambier June rainfall: 66.8mm (Ave: 83.6mm).
• YTD: 224mm (Ave: 297mm), compared to 297.4mm this time last year.
• All sowing complete and optimism increasing concerning the upcoming grain season with solid June rainfall.
• Wheat $ +5 ($300 to $310). Wheat prices higher this week from lower A$ and active buying for exports.
• Feed barley $ +20 ($275 to $285). Following wheats price rise barley prices increased due to exporter bids for SA barley.
• Triticale $ +0 ($285 to $295). Good buying at a discount to wheat and some supply in SE South Australia.
• Oat prices $ +0 ($222 to $232) More interest in oats from sheep and wool producers. Too expensive for its feed value to cattle.
• SA May milk production down 12.2per cent on May 2012 litres delivered.

• Cereal hay, straw and pasture hay prices are all up this week as winter starts in earnest. Graziers are taking the time to review their fodder situation and weigh up the cost of buying feed at this time as a result demand has eased a little.
• Cereal –Steady- ($300-$330): Cereal hay is becoming very difficult to source.
• Lucerne –Steady- ($320-$360): Supply is becoming very low through the Naracoorte, Keith regions, with price increases reflecting the tight supply. Growers with excess Lucerne are considering their own needs for winter before trading hay as temperatures start to drop.
• Straw – Steady – ($140-$160): Trading has picked up however there is little in excess throughout SA.
• Pasture – Steady – ($250-280): Pasture has been snapped up early by the livestock buyers and is becoming harder to source now.

• Murray Bridge June rainfall: 92.2mm (Ave: 62mm).
• YTD: 180.8mm (Ave: 154.6mm). 249.2mm this time last year.
• All SA grain areas have had great rainfall for June and all grain sowing is now complete with a high level of optimism surrounding incoming grain crops.
• Wheat $ +7 ($286 to $296). Strong gains, however relative pricing shows dairy farmers are favouring Barely use currently.
• Feed barley $ +19 ($255 to $265), Price rise is driven by exporter bids for Barley at the moment and lower Australian dollar value against the US dollar.
• Triticale $ +0 ($275 to $285). Good buying at discount to wheat as lower wheat grades become less available.
• Feed oats $ +5 ($218 to $228). Oats are becoming scarce in areas east of Port Augusta as many growers have instead looked to planting canola and other rotational crops.
• May milk production for South Australia was down 12.2% on May 2012.
• Strong price rises since our last report two weeks ago despite solid June rains and increased optimism for new season crop production.

• Prices remain high in the region and any fodder available is moving big distances to fill the supply shortage in Southern Australia. As a result fodder supply locally is getting very low.
• Cereal Hay – Steady- ($250-$300) –Where cereal hay is available, quality is very high however the quantities are low and most fodder in storage is already committed to regular domestic or export customers.
• Lucerne – Steady- ($300+) – Low supply is due to limited acreages and poor results from dryland Lucerne in SA this year. There appears to be no big quantities of Lucerne available anywhere on the domestic market.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$130) – Any straw on farm is likely to be under contract but demand from the domestic market is fairly quiet at this stage.
• Vetch – Steady ($300+) – Where available growers are asking top dollar for good quality vetch hay, there is very little now available.

• Bunbury June rainfall: 60.2mm (Ave: 149.6mm).
• YTD: 281mm (Ave: 314mm), compared to 329.8mm this time last year.
• Another very good rain for winter pastures in the South West, Most regions receiving between 30-40mm
• Wheat: $ -15 ($296 to $306). Prices down considerably as domestic buyers are now comfortable they will get the coverage they need before next harvest.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($290 to $300). Wheat preferred for energy as winter sets in.
• Triticale $ -10 ($280 to $290). Triticale is competitive with feed wheat at these prices. Dairy farmers are seeking to buy triticale at a discount to wheat, but not always available.
• Oats -5 ($215 to $225). The current demand is from sheep producers for their winter-feeding needs.
• Strong farmer preference for Wheat from farmers due to its higher energy levels in the winter months.
• Don’t be surprised if the only wheat on offer to you at times over winter is milling grade wheat
• With the small harvest last year not much tonnage is still in grower hands.
• Good feed in place at the moment but growth is slow.

• WA had a great start to the winter cropping season but now conditions are getting very dry, very quickly.
• There are still reserves of fodder, particularly high grade cereal hay in WA which is sought after by the domestic market in other states. However if there is not significant rainfall in the coming weeks it is unlikely this fodder will be released to the domestic market. Growers and exporters will hold onto their fodder reserves if there are supply concerns coming into the 2013 fodder harvest.
• Locally pasture growth is slowing and therefore demand from the horse and dairy industries for fodder is increasing. At this stage prices are not increasing but this may change in the coming weeks.
• Cereal hay – Steady – ($180-$250): There has been an oversupply of high grade new season hay and could be some carry over. There is competition for the lower grade hay which is pushing the price up.
• Lucerne – Steady ($400-$500) – Demand for Lucerne has increased, supply is running low and chaff mills are active buyers of premium quality hay. The main domestic activity is from local horse markets and prices are peaking at around $470/t on farm.
• Straw – Steady ($90-$120): There is some lower grade straw around that didn’t make export grade after being rained on before baling.
• Pasture – Steady ($110 – $130): There seems to be good stocks of pasture hay available to trade.

• Smithton June rainfall: 32.2mm (Ave: 102mm).
• YTD: 255mm (Ave: 366.4mm), compared to 440mm this time last year.
• A dry week this week following a wet period, which saw soils becoming super, saturated.
• Wheat $ +0 ($390 to $400). Red and White feed wheats, and milling grades all trading on par.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($370 to $380). The price of feed barley dropped last week before recovering this current week.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($368 to $378). Mainland triticale is on offer. To be useful it must be cheaper than wheat, and may see some sellers from NE Vic
• Oats prices $ +0 ($310 to $320). Imported oats are going to horses and chicken meat rations but is still useful for sheep in cold Midland conditions.
• Grain for energy is proving vital mid-winter to maintain milk production at a high level in the cold weather.

• There is a definite shortage of supply in Tasmania leading into winter. Ryegrass straw is available in limited supply and some dairies are using this low cost product for roughage.
• Silage stocks on farm are low and there is some demand for trading silage, small quantities are available for sale. It is recommended that trading be done on a $/t DM basis as opposed to per bale.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($205-$225): Stocks are very low due to lack of production for fodder and high competition in the grain sector.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$350): Lucerne supplies are limited; silage in particular is in high demand but not easy to source.
• Straw – Steady – ($135-$145): Given the dry conditions the quality of straw is high and is starting to move now, with demand at this time of year coming from mainland mushroom growers.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($160-$200): The supply of pasture hay is just not available this year, especially good quality pasture hay.