Grain – Hay Report – 5 July 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• Over the last week, the June 28 USDA Crop Report and the International Grains Council monthly report again confirmed the prospect of larger crops and rebuilding of global grain stock levels over the course of 2013/14.
• Almost all analysts and commentators support the view of a downward price direction for grains for last half 2013. It is hard to argue against this logic; however there remain a few questions for us to watch here in Australia. For example: (1) the sliding A$ is supporting local grain prices, (2) any news of new demand gives the market a reason to stay firm – as happened with some recent Chinese grain buying, (3) there are limited grain stocks on Australia’s east coast till the new crop starts to arrive in Nov/Dec, and (4) “mother nature” needs to have her say over July-October before the northern and southern hemisphere crops are safe.
• Having said that, plantings this year are set to deliver big crops if average weather conditions prevail. In the US, record areas of both corn and soybeans have been planted and wheat area is the highest for four years. If Mother Nature is normal, there will be large crops and stocks will rebuild. That points to lower prices in the second half of 2013 as these crops start to hit the market.
• Winter harvest is well under way in the northern hemisphere and there are no major adverse results to report to this stage.
• The local crops in Australia are advancing well for this early in the season, but it is the spring weather which really sets the yield. Old crop supply of feedgrains is very tight on Australia’s east coast, so we can’t bank on big supplies and lower prices as yet. We need to get much closer to seeing that supply in the bin (say Oct/Nov). If all the stars line up around the world for good crops between now and October 2013, and if the A$ stays above 90USc, a price drop of $50 by Christmas would not be a surprise.
• Local grain prices are now close to where they were last harvest, so we may see some more grower selling after July 1.
• The local grain market has been reasonably flat for the last week, with most price moves within a $5 range, except for sorghum in the northern states (up around $10). This reflects the relatively tight supply of feed grains on the east coast, strong beef feedlot demand, regular Chinese buying for containers and potentially some traders short for export shipments of sorghum.
• The most important issue for dairy farmers is not trying to pick the bottom of the 2013/14 grain market, but to manage their margin-over-feed-cost risk and make a start on covering their forward grain needs if the quoted prices allow them to make a margin, taking into account the 2013/14 milk pricing which has been announced by the milk processors over the last month.

National Summary – Hay:

• Again this week we are seeing prices remain firm but steady with suggestions that demand is easing somewhat in most of the key dairy regions. The biggest contributors to this are the ability of customers to pay for fodder, the added cost of freighting hay over big distances and the very low supply of all fodder types.
• This week we saw the usually consistent fodder price in the Atherton tablelands increase, primarily due to high demand from Western QLD. Baling conditions have been favourable but it has stayed fairly dry throughout that region meaning less hay has been cut this year.
• Freight is still a big factor contributing to the cost of hay as buyers struggle to source supplies of fodder. There were reports this week of hay moving distances as far as Horsham (Western Victoria) to Southern Queensland.
• In previous drought years fodder has been sourced from the Northern Territory, however dry conditions in that region are causing buyers to seek fodder from Central SA and other regions to sustain their own requirements.
• Exporters have been turning some fodder onto the domestic market but this was quickly purchased and it is not expected that much more fodder will come from this source.
• A common trend we are seeing is growers who have a relationship with their supplier have been able to source their fodder and avoid paying extremely high prices. This is something to consider coming into the 2013 fodder harvest. Fodder is already in short supply and there will be very little, if any carry over fodder into 2014. Buyers are urged to consider their fodder needs for 2014 and initiate discussions with their suppliers or hay traders as early in the hay season as possible. Fodder supplies in 2014 are dependent on the 2013 spring.
• There are stocks of good quality cereal hay held by exporters and growers in Western Australia however the season has dried off considerably over there and it is unlikely that any quantities will be released from that region. There was interest in bringing hay back from WA to South Eastern Australia however no reports of fodder actually being shipped back at this stage.
• We are hearing more and more reports of both buyers and sellers getting burnt in fodder transactions as the market becomes tighter. It is important to ensure that both buyers and sellers look out for themselves by using written contracts for all fodder transactions, especially in current circumstances. If you would like more information on written contracts for hay please contact the AFIA office on 03 9530 2199.
• Vetch is in very limited supply throughout Victoria. It is worth noting that dry sowing of vetch in the Wimmera-Mallee has commenced but rainfall has been very low through that region. This gives an indication that vetch crops planned for hay in 2013 may perform poorly and be low yielding. Therefore a vetch shortage into 2014 may be likely as well.
• Most hay in storage is under contract or committed to customers; however some lower grades of hay and straw are still available. Again buyers are advised to source their requirements as soon as possible.
• Cereal hay and vetch are in shortest supply in the eastern states. Reporting this week has indicated that vetch supplies will not hold on much longer and cereal hay is in very short supply.
• As fodder is moved greater distances freight is starting to have a big impact on price.
• Demand for hay from feedlots in QLD is starting to increase as Western QLD and areas in the Northern Territory have stayed extremely dry, with station owners opting to destock rather than freight hay.

 This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

The information in this report is collected and disseminated with due care and attention to its accuracy, but Dairy Australia accepts no liability if, for any reason, the information is inaccurate, incomplete or out of date.

Notes: Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.

Notes: Hay prices are delivered, GST exclusive based on shedded hay without weather damage, of good quality and colour. It should be noted there is a wide variation in quality for hay, so prices are indicative for a mid-range product.

• Mareeba July rainfall: 0mm (Ave: 6.4mm).
• YTD: 701mm (Ave: 732). Rainfall for this time last year was 799mm.
• A dry week again so the winter dry season has now been confirmed.
• Wheat: $+2 ($388 to $398). Tableland farmers need to match human consumption buyers to gain supplies
• Barley: $ +1 ($433 to $443). Fair too expensive and mostly unavailable.
• Corn prices $ +0 ($388 to $398). Not too much business being done but it remains to be the best if the local market can source it.
• Sorghum: $ +12 ($384 to $394). Very strong demand for CQ new season sorghum. It has low grain moisture following the run of frosts. A lot is being trucked south to the Downs for export container packing.
• Queensland milk production down 3.5% on May 2012 deliveries.

• Demand for hay from the Atherton Tablelands has been very high this year and is being driven by the dry conditions in Far West QLD. As a result prices have increased a little in the past few weeks.
• Growers in the region are now preparing for the dry season ahead, taking advantage of good baling weather in the past few weeks to conserve and store fodder. It is anticipated that strong demand won’t ease the dry season this year but that is dependent on how many cattle stations can afford to keep and their ability to pay for fodder.
• Rhodes grass Hay – +$10 – ($265-285): Supplies of hay are lower than usual, after a dry wet season; however the quality is good as baling conditions have been favourable.

• Toowoomba July Rainfall: 10mm (Ave: 30mm).
• YTD: 877mm (Ave: 426mm), compared to 442mm this time last year.
• Good rain for winter crops this week will allow grain on heavy clays to germinate.
• Wheat: $ +3 ($344 to $354). All of the wheat is now being traded for human consumption, quality is too expensive, sorghum is the better option for now.
• Feed Barley: $ +5 ($351 to $361). At prices over wheat purchases this will limit the commodity to particular tasks, including some feedlot rations. Supply very limited in Sth QLD and Nth NSW.
• Corn $ +5 ($340 to $350). Not really in mainstream demand, higher to keep relativity to wheat and sorghum.
• Sorghum: $ +10 ($343 to $353). CQ Sorghum being trucked south to the Downs for container packing to export through Brisbane river.
• Local late sown sorghum is having difficulty getting down below 13.5% moisture level.
• Barley prices remain above wheat and therefore out of contention for dairy feeds.

• Pasture hay and forage sorghum is still being baled on the downs, the highest levels of activity is from lot feeders trying to secure winter feed. This will conclude in the next week or two.
• While buying activity is strong, prices have remained steady this week.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($330-$360): Cereal hay is in particularly short supply nationally and are being freighted from further afield to meet demand. Reports of fodder coming from as far as Central SA this week, give an indication that buyers are becoming desperate. Small squares of last season cereal hay are trading locally to hobby farmers and the horse industry at $7/ bale.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($400-$450): Lucerne in large squares is hard to source in the region, and is becoming a growing concern across the country. The horse and hobby markets are the most active buyers presently and paying $12-15/bale for premium quality lucerne where it is available.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$150): Feedlots active buyers. The quality is good but there isn’t a lot of reserve stock available locally.
• Pasture – Steady- ($180-$200): Baling has now finished for summer pastures. There is strong demand from lot feeders and station owners for pasture hay which is driving the price up. Buyers are attempting to secure enough rations for winter.

• Lismore July rainfall total: 81mm (Ave: 35mm).
• YTD: 1001mm (Ave: 823mm), compared to 920mm this time last year.
• SFW Wheat: $ +3 ($377 to $387). All human consumption wheat quality left until harvest in October. Summer crop currently more useful for cows.
• Feed Barley: $ +5 ($404 to $414). Too high in absolute terms and against wheat.
• Corn $ +10 ($380 to $390). Try for any local Maize that is off grade, either discoloured or high moisture. Avoid paying freight for Corn and Sorghum.
• Sorghum: $ +10 ($348 to $358). Buying high moisture either ex Downs or local. Should be used immediately though and preferably shandied with drier grain when being cracked.
• North coast milk production for the month of May was down 7.9% on milk delivered for May 2012.
• Winter sown pasture paddocks making good progress with many sufficiently established to be grazed.

• Dairy farmers and graziers are increasing their need for supplementary feed now and as a result trading activity has picked up. However like most regions supply is low coming into the peak demand period.
• Despite the market firming prices are remaining steady, but it’s likely we will see an increase in the coming weeks.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($260-$300): There is very little available locally and nationally and local traders are finding is difficult to source.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($300-$350): There is very little quality lucerne available locally. Supply is particularly tight for small squares which are trading at $12/bale.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($150-$170): With more graziers supplementary feeding cattle this year there has been steady demand for pasture hay. The quality is good but supply is low; therefore if we see a cooler winter it will quickly become hard to source pasture hay locally.

• Forbes July rainfall: 0.4mm (Ave: 39mm).
• YTD: 314mm (Ave: 264mm), compared to 454 this time last year.
• About 10mm this week which will help emerging crops
• SFW Wheat: $ +10 ($270 to $280). Supplies of feed grade wheats running out, new crops however are doing well, cereal crops sown on time, late crops are emerging.
• F1 Barley: $ +13 ($257 to $267). Better supply of Barley in this region, compared to the north. Choice now between wheat and barley for homes mixers.
• Corn $ +15 ($395 to $405). Attracting little interest. Any local feed corn has a role in feeding higher producing cows to obtain better post rumen absorption of starch derivatives.
• Sorghum $ -35 ($353 to $363) Stiff prices off the back of last week could not be maintained and proved unsustainable. Export interest is based on QLD for shipment to China. Local sorghum should be much cheaper as not caught for export interest.
• Inland central milk production for May held steady based on 2012 May production.
• Dryland paddocks should be able to provide better bulk grazing later this month. Urea dressing will help an earlier than otherwise response.

• There is very strong demand for fodder through the central west particularly for lucerne as it is one of the few regions with limited supply still available. Bulk hay, particularly of lucerne in big squares is now in very short supply.
• Local growers are giving priority to their regular customers before supplying new customers from other regions.
• Cereal hay – Steady ($250-$300): There is very little supply locally in large squares. Cereal hay in small squares is in very short supply but trading at $8-10/bale to horse and hobby farm buyers.
• Lucerne -Steady – ($350-$400): There is still strong competition for premium grade lucerne hay between chaff mills, traders and livestock buyers at the moment. In the past few weeks there have been reports of buyers paying up to $420t on farm for premium grade hay. Good quality small square bales are steady at around $10-12/bale.
• Straw – Steady ($115-$135): The Central West is not traditionally a big area for straw and there is not a huge supply.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($145-$155) – Low grade pasture hay is being snapped up by the livestock market for cheap forage where it is available. Supply is very limited as it is not a regular market for the region.

• Bega May rainfall total: 30 (Ave: 50mm). March rainfall 17.2mm.
• YTD: 224mm (Ave: 318mm), compared to 569mm this time last year.
• 25-30mm for Bega valley to Wednesday morning. Good for flats grazing but unlikely to spur growth on the hills.
• SFW Wheat $ +0 ($315 to $325). Little feed grade wheat on offer as ASW and APW become the default supply for wheat, where milling competition comes into play, both at Port Kembla and Sydney markets.
• Feed barley $ +2 ($278 to $288), a wide discount to wheat, but supplies dwindling in southern NSW. Growers are careful sellers.
• Triticale $ +5 ($309 to $319). Triticale is currently trading below wheat with some included in rations coming from Victoria.
• Oats: $ +0 ($285 to $295). Very strong demand for sheep feeding on Southern Tablelands and now too expensive for use in dairy rations.
• A good rain through northern NSW this week, but not enough rain yet for southern NSW… only 2-5mm in Riverina.
• Better falls in grain areas of the central west. NSW grain prospects for incoming winter crops improved but long way to go.

• Supply to the region is coming from Central West NSW, the Southern Tablelands and the Riverina. There is strong competition in these supplying regions from sheep and cattle graziers which is driving price up.
• Available paddock feed is getting low and there is concern over fodder supply for winter to this region.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($280- $320): Prices have increased again as supply tightens across the region and fodder is being freighted longer distances.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($350-$400): Buyers are searching further afield to source lucerne. In supplying regions demand is rapidly diminishing and there is increasing competition from the livestock sector due to the dry conditions.
• Straw – Steady ($140-180): There wasn’t a lot of straw made in the supplying regions and now there is strong competition from other sectors. High prices are reflecting the lack of supply.

• Tatura May rainfall: 20mm (Ave: 45mm). March rainfall 35.6mm.
• YTD: 111mm (Ave: 183mm), compared to 310mm this time last year.
• Region had 3-10mm – not enough for either sown crops to geminate evenly, or for pastures to provide feed for beef cattle or dairy cows on dryland paddocks.
• Wheat: $ +4 ($272 to $282). Only milling grades now available.
• F1 Barley: $ +3 ($252 to $262). Barley in tight supply with concerns re new crop plantings.
• Triticale: $ +7 ($264 to $274). Triticale is good buying at any discount to wheat.
• Feed Oats: $ +0 ($222 to $232). Sheep and horse feed only at these prices.
• Grain is expensive with sheep and beef producers in market for both grain oats and fodder.
• Unlikely to see grain prices come down significantly till all Victorian grain areas have their winter crops established.
• Northern April milk production was down 1.0% compared to the previous April.

• Demand for all fodder types remains steady and prices are still firm. However the high cost for fodder is encouraging buyers to look at other options such as almond hulls.
• Buyers who don’t have established relationships with their hay trader or supplier are missing out on fodder or paying.
• Cereal hay – Steady – ($330-$350) –Cereal hay is very hard to find anywhere in the country. Growers are still getting a lot of enquiries indicating demand remains very high and the only ones that aren’t missing out are customers who have made arrangements with their suppliers earlier in the year.
• Lucerne hay – Steady – ($350-$400) – Supply is now very low there are no reports of uncommitted lucerne locally. Lucerne is being sourced in small quantities from as far away as SA and Central West NSW. These regions do not have large quantities and regular customers are being looked after as a priority by growers. Small squares are also hard to source and are trading at around $14/bale on farm.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$170) – Demand for straw has really picked up in the last few weeks. There is very limited straw available that isn’t under contract and buyers are becoming desperate to find straw to meet their winter requirements.
• Vetch – Steady – ($340 – 380) – There are no reports of vetch trading under $300/t on farm now and supplies are very low nationally. It is worth noting that dry sowing of vetch in the Mallee has commenced but rainfall has been scarce. This gives an early indication that vetch crops planned for hay in 2013 may perform poorly and be low yielding. Therefore a vetch shortage into 2014 may be likely.

• Sale May rainfall: 10.8mm (Ave: 52mm). March rainfall 36.0mm (Ave: 49.3mm).
• YTD: 160.2mm (Ave: 238mm), compared to 305.4 this time last year.
• Lack of autumn rain meant less grass growth, early use of silage reserves and cows will need more grain and fodder this autumn to maintain milk litres.
• SFW Wheat: $ +4 ($311 to $321). Main grain in demand now for winter. Riverina and North East regions have planted crops but season by no means secure.
• Barley: $ +3 ($296 to $306). Most Gippsland dairy farmers have been on wheat for long time. Concerns for crops in NW Victoria
• Triticale: $ +7 ($302 to $312). A little more triticale on offer following rains in NE Vic.
• Feed Oats: $ 0 ($233 to $243) Stronger demand for sheep feeding and for the horse trade. Expect to stay firm while there is demand from Riverina sheep farms.
• Much of the Victorian wheat was sold to major traders last harvest. Farmer and merchant stocks are lower than normal and are holding stocks tightly still.
• Unlikely to see grain prices come down significantly till all Victorian grain areas have their winter crops established.
• Eastern (including Gippsland and the north east) delivered 18.5% less milk this April than for April 2012.
• Some expectation the new season milk prices will rise by 15-20 per cent.

• Rain through the region has taken some of the pressure off the demand for hay but buyers are still active. Hay is being sourced from the exporters in Victoria and SA, although reports indicate that these supplies are becoming low.
• One major issue facing buyers in Gippsland is the cost of freight. Most competing buyers in the fodder market, outside of Gippsland, are not paying as much for freight and are therefore able to pay a little more for their fodder; this is driving the cost up. As a result the ability to source and pay for fodder through winter is now a serious concern through this region.
• Cereal Hay –Steady- ($350-$400) – Supply of cereal hay is very tight. As buyers work harder to secure very small quantities against competition that do not have as significant freight costs, prices delivered into Gippsland are becoming very high increasing, now getting close to $400t delivered.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($380-$420) – Local lucerne is already committed and the most common comment from traders trying to source any is that it simply isn’t available.
• Vetch – Steady– ($400+) – There is very little available nationally. With a poor start to the main vetch growing regions it is very likely there will be a vetch shortage in 2014. Regular buyers are encouraged to secure their vetch hay early, behind the baler in spring this year to avoid missing out in 2014.
• Straw – Steady – ($200-$220) – There is still some straw sourced from the Western Districts and Central Victoria. High grade barley hay is priced between $120-$140 on farm, wheat straw is about $100-$110. The freight back to Gippsland is adding significant cost for buyers.
• Pasture – Steady – ($280-$300) –Very short supply of any grade pasture hay across Southern Australia, including the usual local supply of round bale pasture which has been cleaned out.

• Port Fairy July rainfall: 13mm (Ave: 93.9mm).
• YTD: 339mm (Ave: 401.5.5mm), compared to 419mm this time last year.
• Western District crops are secure with a normal winter rainfall.
• Not as much canola was sown.
• Dairy farmers seeking grain to give energy to allow their cows to produce milk close to their genetic potential
• SFW1 Wheat: $ -5 ($276 to $286). Dairy farmers looking for wheat to provide extra energy to the cows through mid winter.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($253 to $263). Prices are currently steady, however slow to new business at these current values for the new financial year. Tight supplies favour the seller at present.
• Triticale prices $ -5 ($275 to $285). Again following the wheat price down. Expect Mallee triticale to have more grain protein than north eastern triticale.
• Feed oat $ +5 ($236 to $246). Feed oats and milling oats are in short supply through Vic. Associated with more oats going into export hay production.
• Red wheats have eased triticale out of south western Vic.
• Riverina feed corn is being marketed to dairy farmers who home mix as a special ingredient to the better producing cows as it provides post rumen energy from starch derivatives.
• Continued feeding of vegetable meals continues till the grass makes more progress.
• May milk production for western areas was down 13.9 per cent compared to May 2012 deliveries

• Rain this week has been welcomed by growers in the region and will go a long way to boosting confidence for the fodder season ahead.
• There is still active demand for hay in the region however supplies are limited to what has become available from the exporters and other small supplies coming down from the Wimmera – Mallee and SA.
• Prices remain firm but steady this week.
• Cereal – Steady- ($330 – $360): Cereal hay is most commonly sought after from buyers presently. It is extremely difficult to source cereal hay at the moment and most hay in storage is under contract.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($350-$400): The usual suppliers of lucerne from North Central Victoria and South East South Australia are very low or completely out of stock. Prices are quickly rising as stocks run low.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$160): There is still some straw sourced from the Western Districts and Central Victoria. High grade barley hay is priced between $120-$140 on farm; wheat straw is about $100-$110.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($260 – $300): Pasture hay is in short supply and very difficult to source across the state.

• Mount Gambier July rainfall: 37mm (Ave: 99mm).
• YTD: 269mm (Ave: 396mm), compared to 344.6mm this time last year.
• All sowing complete and optimism increasing concerning the upcoming grain season with solid June rainfall.
• Wheat $ -7 ($293 to $303). Wheat prices down considerably and remains a viable option as they supply better energy for the cows in the colder months.
• Feed barley $ -5 ($270 to $280). Barley prices have fallen but remain more stable than central districts of SA.
• Triticale $ -5 ($280 to $290). Good buying at a discount to wheat and some supply in SE Sth Aust.
• Oat prices $ +5 ($227 to $237) Shortage in oats has increased demand for both milling and feed oat prices.
• Incoming crop conditions in all areas look good as local conditions are wet but normal for the mid winter month.

• Cereal hay, straw and pasture hay prices remain steady this week. Graziers are taking the time to review their fodder situation and weigh up the cost of buying feed at this time as a result demand has eased a little.
• Cereal –Steady- ($300-$330): Cereal hay is becoming very difficult to source.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($320-$360): Supply is becoming very low through the Naracoorte, Keith regions, with price increases reflecting the tight supply. Growers with excess Lucerne are considering their own needs for winter before trading hay as temperatures start to drop.
• Straw – Steady – ($140-$160): Trading has picked up however there is little in excess throughout SA.
• Pasture – Steady – ($250-280): Pasture has been snapped up early by the livestock buyers and is becoming harder to source now.

• Murray Bridge July rainfall: 4mm (Ave: 99mm).
• YTD: 269mm (Ave: 396mm). 344mm this time last year.
• Relatively dry week with only one or two millimetres of rain this north and east of Adelaide.
• Wheat $ -12 ($274 to $284). The wheat market has corrected itself and become a more affordable feed option reverting back to a simular price before the price spike of last week.
• Feed barley $ -15 ($240 to $250), Barley prices have kicked substantially following increased trade in the new financial year.
• Triticale $ +0 ($275 to $285). Not as good as value relative to the decreasing prices for wheat and barley.
• Feed oats $ +0 ($218 to $228). Oats are becoming scarce in areas east of Port Augusta as many growers have instead looked to planting canola and other rotational crops.
• Warmer weather has allowed pastures fo well.
• Many farmers are encouraged by better milk prices in the last two weeks.

• Growers in Central SA are experiencing excellent growing conditions this season. As a result growers are optimistic about the season ahead.
• Prices remain firm but steady and there has been a slight fall in demand, mostly driven by rainfall in the buying regions (eg. Gippsland).
• Fodder is still moving big distances to fill the supply shortage in Southern Australia. As a result fodder supply locally is getting very low.
• Cereal Hay – Steady- ($250-$300) –Where cereal hay is available, quality is very high however the quantities are low and most fodder in storage is already committed to regular domestic or export customers.
• Lucerne – Steady- ($300+) – Low supply is due to limited acreages and poor results from dryland Lucerne in SA this year. There appears to be no big quantities of Lucerne available anywhere on the domestic market.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$130) – Any straw on farm is likely to be under contract but demand from the domestic market is fairly quiet at this stage.
• Vetch – Steady ($300+) – Where available growers are asking top dollar for good quality vetch hay, there is very little now available.

• Bunbury July rainfall: 3.6mm (Ave: 142.9mm).
• YTD: 292mm (Ave: 457mm), compared to 344mm this time last year.
• Concerns are increasing for the incoming grain crop, lack of rains is developing a mind set that another drought year is developing.
• Wheat: $ +0 ($296 to $306). Wheat prices remain steady and little trade has occurred as many growers are uncertain regarding the upcoming season.
• Feed barley $ +8 ($298 to $308). Rises in barley reflect increased interest in the commodity at the end of the financial year.
• Triticale $ -5 ($275 to $285). Triticale is competitive with feed wheat at these prices. Dairy farmers are seeking to buy triticale at a discount to wheat, but not always available.
• Oats +0 ($215 to $225). With drought conditions threatening many of the northern areas oats are becoming good property to hold.
• Strong farmer preference for Wheat from farmers due to its higher energy levels in the winter months.
• With the small harvest last year not much tonnage is still in grower hands.
• In contrast to the grain regions the south west dairy areas have had two good weeks of rain.

• WA is one of the few locations nationally with some fodder reserves, particularly of cereal hay and straw. However a lot of the fodder in storage is committed.
• Lucerne hay is in short supply as which is due to production ceasing coming into winter.
• The season is looking promising so far with good rain favouring growers, who are getting ready to sow long winter varieties in mid to late May.
• Cereal hay – Steady – ($180-$250): There has been an oversupply of high grade new season hay and could be some carry over. There is competition for the lower grade hay which is pushing the price up.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($400-$500) – Demand for Lucerne has increased, supply is running low and chaff mills are active buyers of premium quality hay. The main domestic activity is from local horse markets and prices are peaking at around $470/t on farm.
• Straw – Steady- ($90-$120): There is some lower grade straw around that didn’t make export grade after being rained on before baling.
• Pasture – Steady ($110 – $130): There seems to be good stocks of pasture hay available to trade.

• Smithton July rainfall: 31mm (Ave: 108mm).
• YTD: 306.8mm (Ave: 475mm), compared to 455mm this time last year.
• Northern dairy areas received 5-10mm but a relatively dry week for Tasmanian standards.
• Wheat $ +0 ($390 to $400). Red and White feed wheats, and milling grades all trading on par.
• Feed barley $ +5 ($375 to $385). Australian feed barley mainland prices lifted with activity prior to the new financial year.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($368 to $378). Mainland triticale is on offer and represents a good buying opportunity in the colder weather if priced at a discount to wheat.
• Oats prices $ +5 ($315 to $325). Price rises are reflected by a severe shortage of the commodity on the mainland.
• Milk production in Tasmania is down but is still holding relative to production in other states.

• There is a definite shortage of supply in Tasmania leading into winter. Ryegrass straw is available in limited supply and some dairies are using this low cost product for roughage.
• Silage stocks on farm are low and there is some demand for trading silage, small quantities are available for sale. It is recommended that trading be done on a $/t DM basis as opposed to per bale.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($205-$225): Stocks are very low due to lack of production for fodder and high competition in the grain sector.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$350): Lucerne supplies are limited; silage in particular is in high demand but not easy to source.
• Straw – Steady – ($135-$145): Given the dry conditions the quality of straw is high and is starting to move now, with demand at this time of year coming from mainland mushroom growers.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($160-$200): The supply of pasture hay is just not available this year, especially good quality pasture hay.