Grain – Hay Report – 2 August 2013

International & National Summary – Grain:

• There is growing confidence that larger global crops and rebuilding of grain stock levels over the course of 2013/14 remains the most likely scenario for second half 2013.
• For wheat, US winter harvest is 80% complete – almost in the bin. For US corn, silking is at 70% complete so the major risk period is almost over. Soybeans still carries some risk as it is only 20% podded versus 34% normal, so is vulnerable to a late freeze. Otherwise, with Black Sea crops coming in close to or above estimates, the market is running out of reasons to maintain a risk premium for doubtful supplies by late 2013. The “weather market” will hover in the background over August-September till the 2013 crops become more secure, but the window for an upset to occur is closing.
• Grain prices will more than likely be lower in three months time, provided “Mother Nature” delivers average weather over August-Sep. There are two caveats to this: (1) Will lower grain prices draw in more demand, just as China has stepped in to buy more wheat (with reported sales from Australia over 1 million tonnes) in the last few weeks? This could be a wild card. (2) Will the A$ stay around 90US cents, or drop closer to 80US cents as some commentators are saying? A slide in the A$ could in large part offset the lower global grain prices in US$.
• Local crops in Australia are advancing well, with the exception of parts of WA and the far north-west of NSW. As always, it will be the spring time weather which really sets the yield.
• Old crop supply of feedgrains remains tight on the east coast of Australia due to strong feedlot demand and an active export program. For that reason, we may not see the full reductions in grain prices on the east coast until our new crop arrives in Nov/Dec. A message out of this is don’t assume supply will be available freely from August-October unless you have had discussions with your feed supplier about your requirements. There may be price spikes in this period if users are caught short.
• It will be worth watching out for the global swing back to corn as the preferred feedgrain in 2013/14 as corn re-establishes itself at more of a traditional discount to wheat. For 2012/13, wheat and corn have traded at similar prices due to the disastrous 2012 US corn crop – wheat became the default feedgrain. Historical long term spreads between wheat and corn are around $40 per tonne. If we have a good quality wheat harvest in Australia in 2013, local feed users will have to compete with export flour millers to keep sufficient wheat to feed on the east coast of Australia as there is insufficient sorghum and barley to cover the domestic demand.
• For the last week, the local grain market traded about $5-10 lower across Australia, although down $20-30 in Tasmania. This drop may be short-lived if the dive in the A$ below US90 cents is sustained.
• The most important issue for dairy farmers is not trying to pick the bottom of the 2013/14 grain market, but to manage their margin-over-feed-cost risk and make a start on covering their forward grain needs if the quoted prices allow them to make a margin, taking into account the 2013/14 milk pricing which has been announced by the milk processors in recent months.

National Summary – Hay:

• In South East South Australian and South West Victoria fodder prices have dropped about $20 this week for cereal hay and vetch as a result of the drop in demand to those regions.
• In most other regions prices have remained firm but steady this week and reports from most regions indicate that demand is now starting to slow.
• Low fodder supplies continue to make it hard for buyers to source fodder, with the most interest presently in lower grade, lower value hay and straw.
• In 2013 buyers who maintained a relationship with their hay supplier have generally been able to source fodder and avoid paying the high spot market prices. Given there will be little carry over fodder from last year’s hay season, coming into the 2013/2014 harvest, and some regions have had a slow start to the growing season, there is an indication fodder supplies may be short again in 2014. Of particular concern are crops such as vetch. Now is the time for buyers to start looking to the 2014 season, considering their fodder requirements and starting to communicate their needs with their hay trader or supplier.
• Decent rainfall has been recorded throughout Victoria, particularly the North Central and Wimmera-Mallee in the past few weeks, and there are reports of some growers releasing fodder on to the market that they had initially retained for their own use.
• Buyers are looking to alternative fodder sources such as almond hulls, which can be blended with straw in place of cereal hay. Delivered to Victoria the price for almond hulls varies from $115-$140t depending on the location.
• In Queensland feedlots and dairy’s remain active buyers. New season hay should come onto the market as early as late August or September and will provide some relief for buyers who are struggling to source fodder presently. There are also reports of early cereal crops being chopped for pit silage this week.
• With freight adding a large cost to fodder prices, it is worth considering the quality of the product being purchased. It might work out more cost effective to purchase higher-grade oaten hay at a higher price than to pay freight on lower grade fodder. Remember to always get a fodder quality analysis before purchasing fodder.
• Tasmania has only recently recorded decent rainfalls and the state is very dry for this time of year. There is little fodder available and buyers are seeking whatever feed they can to get by.
• Most areas of QLD remain very dry and fodder has been sourced from as far away as Central SA and southern Victoria to supply desperate buyers through the region. Areas that have access to water and can bale lucerne have been selling their hay straight behind the baler.
• Reports of graziers in South West Victoria, South East South Australia and the Wimmera-Mallee turning livestock onto winter crops and pastures initially intended for hay could be an indication that fodder shortages might be set to continue into 2014. This will depend on the season, particularly rainfall events in late winter and early spring.

 This report has been commissioned by Dairy Australia to provide an independent and timely assessment of grain and hay markets in each dairying region. It should be remembered that actual prices may vary for quality or other reasons. All prices are quoted are exclusive of GST.

The information in this report is collected and disseminated with due care and attention to its accuracy, but Dairy Australia accepts no liability if, for any reason, the information is inaccurate, incomplete or out of date.

2 August 2013		Grain
		Wheat		Barley		Maize		Sorghum
Atherton Tableland	Price Range	$368	$378	$418	$428	$378	$388	$355	$365
	Change	-$5		$0		-$10		$11
Darling Downs	Price Range	$314	$324	$343	$353	$330	$340	$288	$298
	Change	-$10		$0		-$10		$3
North Coast of NSW	Price Range	$357	$367	$391	$401	$370	$380	$307	$317
	Change	-$10		$0		-$10		$3
Central West NSW	Price Range	$250	$260	$234	$244	$370	$380	$316	$326
	Change	-$3		-$8		-$5		-$7
		Wheat		Barley		Triticale		Oats
Bega Valley	Price Range	$274	$284	$259	$269	$271	$281	$288	$298
	Change	-$3		-$5		-$5		-$5
Goulburn/Murray Valley	Price Range	$280	$290	$259	$269	$269	$279	$235	$245
	Change	$0		$0		$0		$0
Gippsland	Price Range	$312	$322	$301	$311	$307	$317	$245	$255
	Change	$0		$0		$0		-$5
South West Victoria	Price Range	$281	$291	$253	$263	$275	$285	$231	$241
	Change	$0		$0		$0		$0
South East South Australia	Price Range	$290	$300	$269	$279	$275	$285	$220	$230
	Change	-$3		$0		$0		-$5
Central Districts of SA	Price Range	$294	$304	$262	$272	$270	$280	$218	$228
	Change	-$6		-$3		-$10		-$5
South West of WA	Price Range	$312	$322	$287	$297	$285	$295	$195	$205
	Change	-$5		-$5		$0		-$10
Tasmania	Price Range	$360	$370	$350	$360	$363	$373	$313	$323
	Change	-$30		-$25		$0		-$5

Notes: Prices are estimates based on delivery to dairy farms with allowance for freight, storage, and marketing costs, but exclusive of GST. Wheat prices are for the relevant stockfeed wheat available in a region (ASW, AGP, SFW1 or FED1) and F1 for barley.

2 August 2013		Hay
		Cereal		Lucerne		Straw		Pasture
Atherton Tablelands	Price Range	N/A		N/A		N/A		$265	$285
	Change							Steady
Darling Downs	Price Range	$300	$330	$400	$450	$120	$150	$180	$200
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady
North Coast NSW	Price Range	$280	$320	$350	$400	NA	NA	$160	$180
	Change	Steady		Steady		N/A		+$10
Central West NSW	Price Range	$280	$300	$330	$360	$115	$135	$145	$155
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady
Bega Valley	Price Range	$300	$330	$350	$400	$180	$200	$160	$180
	Change	Steady		Steady		+$20		Steady
Goulburn / Murray Valley	Price Range	$310	$330	$350	$400	$115	$155	$220	$250
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady
Gippsland	Price Range	$350	$400	$380	$420	$200	$220	$280	$300
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady
South West Victoria	Price Range	$320	$330	$330	$350	$130	$160	$260	$280
	Change	-$20		-$20		Steady		Steady
South East South Australia	Price Range	$280	$300	$300	$320	$140	$160	$250	$280
	Change	-$20		-$20		Steady		Steady
Central Districts SA	Price Range	$250	$300	$300	$350	$120	$130	–	–
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		N/A
South West WA	Price Range	$200	$250	$400	$500	$90	$120	$110	$130
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady
North West Tasmania	Price Range	$205	$225	$300	$350	$135	$145	$180	$200
	Change	Steady		Steady		Steady		Steady

Notes: Hay prices are delivered, GST exclusive based on shredded hay without weather damage, of good quality and colour. It should be noted there is a wide variation in quality for hay, so prices are indicative for a mid-range product.

1. Atherton Tableland – Grain Commentary

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• Mareeba August rainfall: 0mm (Ave: 10.1mm).
• YTD: 710.4mm (Ave: 742.6). Rainfall for this time last year was 816mm.
• 20mm in most places in the tablelands this week.
• Wheat: $ -5 ($368 to $378). Remembering that all the wheat available in warehouse is milling quality wheat. Wheat has come off a bit but Sorghum further still and more favourable due to this.
• Barley: $ +0 ($418 to $428). Supplies are now very distant, as far as Nth West NSW. No local user of barley at present.
• Corn prices $ -10 ($378 to $388). Not many corn buyers currently. A big proportion of the new season corn is not sold, with a lot of the grain yet to be stripped.
• Sorghum: $ +10 ($354 to $364). Packers have come back into the market for new season CQ sorghum to fill containers.
• Keep trying for any local sorghum or corn.
• Queensland June milk production was down 4.8 per cent on June 2012 litres.

1. Atherton Tableland – Hay Commentary

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• Growers in the region are now preparing for the dry season ahead, taking advantage of good baling weather in the past few weeks to conserve and store fodder. It is anticipated that the strong demand won’t ease in the short term.
• How long the high demand continues will depend on how many livestock station owners can afford to keep. The ability to pay for fodder to feed cattle will play a key role in this decision.
• Rhodes grass Hay – Steady- ($265-$285): Supplies of hay are lower than usual, after a dry wet season; however the quality is good as baling conditions have been favourable.

2. Darling Downs – Grain Commentary

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• Toowoomba August Rainfall: 0.2mm (Ave: 34.5mm).
• YTD: 894.8mm (Ave: 460.7mm), compared to 470.2mm this time last year.
• Rains subsiding this week with only 2-5mm received over the downs this week.
• Wheat: $ -10 ($314 to $324). Any wheat that is on offer now would be of milling quality and therefore pricey. Sorghum has the main running for trade on feed grain at the moment.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($343 to $353). Prices marginally lower but it won’t make any difference, barley now has to be brought up from the Moree area of NSW. Stocks are very limited if existent locally.
• Corn $ -10 ($330 to $340). Feedlots that were using corn because it was relatively cheap have now reverted back to sorghum. Corn market is currently slow.
• Sorghum: $ +3 ($288 to $298). More interest in sorghum from the downs now as the grain is of lower moisture after naturally drying before harvest.
• If wet sorghum can be found for the right discounted price, it can be blended with dry grain.
• Queensland June milk production was down 4.8 per cent on the June 2012 litres.

2. Darling Downs – Hay Commentary

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• Demand remains consistent from feedlots and the dairy industry, and prices are unchanged this week.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($330-$360): Cereal hay is in particularly short supply nationally and is being freighted big distances to meet demand. Planting of cereals intentioned for hay was slightly up this year and baling new season hay could begin as early as August when the weather is better suited to curing hay.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($400-$450): Local new season lucerne should become available as early as September. The horse and hobby markets are the most active buyers presently and paying $12-15/bale for premium quality lucerne where it is available.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$150): Feedlots remain active buyers. The quality was good but there isn’t a lot of reserve stock available.
• Pasture – Steady- ($180-$200): There is strong demand from lot feeders and station owners for pasture hay, which is driving the price up. Buyers are attempting to secure enough rations for winter.

3. North Coast NSW – Grain Commentary

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• Lismore August rainfall total: 0.2mm (Ave: 47.7mm).
• YTD: 1021.4mm (Ave: 870.8mm), compared to 949.4mm this time last year.
• Only 2-10mm of rain in the region this week but warmer weather has meant excellent growing conditions for pastures.
• SFW Wheat: $ -10 ($367 to $377). Very expensive against Sorghum currently. If wet sorghum is offered at enough of a discount consider using it with a blended drier grain.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($391 to $401). At this premium over wheat and sorghum, barley does not have a place in the market.
• Corn $ -10 ($380 to $390). Corn prices will gradually decline with the sharp drop in sorghum prices unless holders withdraw commodity for sale, worth keeping an eye out for any local sorghum or corn, particularly if stripped late.
• Sorghum: $ +3 ($304 to $314). Sorghum is the grain to use now with corn and barely coming into contention due to price.
• Sorghum bought from the downs is the cheapest mainstream grain; coastal dairy farmers should keep in regular contact with the coastal summer crop grain growers.
• North Coast milk production for June was down 7.6 per cent on litres delivered in June 2012.

3. North Coast NSW – Hay Commentary

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• The region is still very damp after one of the wettest years on record. Pasture growth has slowed and some buyers are looking to purchase fodder for supplementary feeding.
• Over the past few weeks demand has started to firm up and prices have increased. Pasture hay is in highest demand and saw a slight price rise this week.
• Local fodder supplies are short.
• Cereal Hay – Steady- ($280-$320): Cereal hay is very difficult to source at present. New season hay from Southern QLD could be available as early as August, if baling conditions are suitable.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($350-$400): There is very little lucerne available locally or in other supply regions throughout the state. Hobby farmers are very active buyers presently and due to demand small squares have increased to $14/bale.
• Pasture Hay –+$10- ($160-$180): Locally pasture hay is the most sought after as both dairies and beef producers try to keep their costs down. The quality is generally good this year but supply is low.

4. Central West NSW – Grain Commentary

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• Forbes August rainfall: 0.2mm (Ave: 38.2mm).
• YTD: 363mm (Ave: 302.2mm), compared to 496.5 this time last year.
• Solid rains in consecutive weeks, is proving very useful for incoming crops. Another 11mm this week at Forbes.
• SFW Wheat: $ -3 ($250 to $260). Some concerns that NNSW grain in storage may run out before new season grain starts to flow through in October. Prices fall but not relative to Barley and Corn.
• F1 Barley: $ -8 ($242 to $252). Wheat still cheaper on a unit of energy cost. Holders of old season barley are looking for markets as pastures begin to improve.
• Corn $ -5 ($370 to $380). Supplies still being held in central, northern and Riverina sheds. Buying currently slow with many withdrawing this week.
• Sorghum $ -7 ($316 to $326), massive drop in sorghum prices following lower export prices.
• Sorghum looks relatively cheap compared to 2 weeks ago but many growers want to hold onto it until the price consolidates.
• Inland central milk production for New South Wales was up 2.7 per cent on the June 2012 litres.
• Haymaking for pasture paddocks possible but just a little too early for hay booster dressings of NPK to go out.

4. Central West NSW – Hay Commentary

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• There is strong demand for fodder through the central west but supply is limited. The key buyers are hobby farmers and chaff mills. Bulk hay, particularly of lucerne in big squares is now in very short supply.
• The season is shaping well for a good fodder harvest after steady rain in the last few months.
• Cereal hay – Steady ($250-$300): There is very little supply locally in large squares. Cereal hay in small squares is in very short supply as well but still trading at $8-12/bale to horse and hobby farm buyers.
• Lucerne -Steady – ($350-$400): There is very limited second grade hay available for trading which is keeping the price of lucerne high. Good quality small square bales are steady at around $11-12/bale.
• Straw – Steady ($115-$135): The Central West is not traditionally a big area for straw and there is not a huge supply.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($145-$155) – Supply is very limited as it is not a regular market for the region.

5. Bega Valley – Grain Commentary

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• Bega August rainfall total: 0.4mm (Ave: 30.6mm).
• YTD: 343mm (Ave: 440mm), compared to 651mm this time last year.
• No rain in the Bega valley this week or for surrounding coastal dairy areas.
• SFW Wheat $ -3 ($274 to $284), down but all other feed grain prices are also down. Wheat maintains its relative advantage for cost per unit of energy. Old season wheat supplies will comfortably run into the new season harvest commencing in November.
• Feed barley $ -5 ($259 to $269). Prices are too close to wheat at this time to warrant any particular interest. More interest for home mixing lies with wheat.
• Triticale $ -5 ($271 to $281). Following other feed grains down.
• Oats: $ -5 ($288 to $298). Still being fed to sheet on Monaro but in other southern areas sheep now has enough grass.
• Winter pastures are making good progress helped by the absence of frosts near the hills; Riverina incoming winter crops are looking good.
• Expect new season southern barley to start running from western cropping areas in early November.
• Coastal diary areas continue to miss out on passing rains despite the Gippsland region receiving a number of fronts in the last couple weeks.
• June Southern NSW milk production was down 4.9 per cent for June compared to the previous June.

5. Bega Valley – Hay Commentary

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• Fodder to the Bega Valley is coming from Central West NSW, the Southern Tablelands and the Riverina and is in very short supply. Demand has started to slow largely due to the high prices for hay.
• Paddock feed is drying off and local farmers are eagerly awaiting more rain leading into spring. If there is no rain soon there may be another spike in fodder prices in the coming month.
• Buyers are looking for alternative sources of protein and energy from options such as a syrup and straw blend that are cheaper than cereal hay.
• With the shortage of hay locally it is timely to consider fodder requirements for next year and start making arrangements to secure your supply now. New season cereal hay cut in spring 2012 was valued at around $215/t the same fodder is now selling for $315/t delivered into Bega.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($280- $320): Prices remain steady due to easing demand.
• Lucerne –Steady – ($350-$400): Buyers are searching further afield to source lucerne and it is in very low supply nationally.
• Straw – +$20 – ($180-$200): There wasn’t a lot of straw baled in the supplying regions and now there is strong competition from other sectors. High prices are reflecting the lack of supply.

6. Goulburn / Murray Valley – Grain Commentary

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• Echuca August rain: 0mm (Ave: 42.4mm)
• YTD: 189.2mm (Ave: 284.2mm), compared to 272mm this time last year.
• Wheat: $ +0 ($280 to $290). Dairy farmers currently using wheat should be able to progressively introduce more barley as pastures improve in feed quality and bulk over the next month.
• F1 Barley: $ +0 ($259 to $269). Victorian barley prices have been steady for the past month despite a noticeable price decline through NSW. Discount compared to wheat is now back at traditional levels.
• Triticale: $ -0 ($269 to $279). Supplies are extremely limited at this time of year and at these prices it is a split decision between wheat and triticale.
• Feed Oats: $ -5 ($235 to $245). Milling and racehorse oats are holding firm but feed oats are slipping in price, as fewer sheep in Strathbogie’s need grain oats as a paddock supplement. Good prospects for incoming crops have softened prices.
• Northern Victoria June milk production is down 3.7 per cent on the June 2012 litres.
• Irrigators are expecting 100 per cent of water rights as the annual water allocations for the 2013-2014 season approaches. They are planning their operations accordingly.

6. Goulburn / Murray Valley – Hay Commentary

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• Fodder trading is starting to slow now as more winter feed becomes available. Prices remain steady for now.
• The high cost of fodder is encouraging buyers to look at other options such as almond hulls and palm kernel meal. Almond hulls can be sourced easily and are being delivered into the region for $115-$125/t.
• Cereal hay – Steady – ($330-$350) – Cereal hay is still available from traders but supply is low and as a result prices are remaining firm.
• Lucerne hay – Steady – ($350-$400) – Supply is now very low and there are no reports of uncommitted lucerne locally. Small squares are also hard to source and are trading at around $14/bale on farm.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$170) – Demand for straw has picked up in the last few weeks and remains steady.
• Vetch – Steady – ($340 – 380) – Vetch is very difficult to source anywhere in the country.

7. Gippsland – Grain Commentary

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• Sale August rainfall: 0mm (Ave: 46mm).
• YTD: 341mm (Ave: 324.9mm), compared to 414.2mm this time last year.
• Warmer weather and heavy rains subsiding is promoting grass growth.
• SFW Wheat: $ +0 ($312 to $322). Wheat prices remain steady as dairy farmers have begun to ease back grain usage and pellet buying as the number of cows is reduced as they await the next calving.
• Barley: $ +0 ($301 to $311). Current pricing favours wheat usage when compared on a cost per unit of energy rationale.
• Triticale: $ +0 ($307 to $317). The discount to wheat may widen over the next month as many current holders of Triticale are looking to sell as this year crop’s prospects continue to improve.
• Feed Oats: $ -5 ($245 to $255) Feed oats are slipping in price as fewer sheep need grain oats as a paddock supplement anywhere in Victoria.
• Plenty of moisture underfoot and wet paddocks will convert to abundant feed when spring arrives. Grass is beginning to grow rapidly enabling grazing rotations.
• Gippsland June milk production was down 7.1 per cent on the previous June.

7. Gippsland – Hay Commentary

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• Demand for fodder remains steady across the region and prices are unchanged this week.
• Fodder supply is very low and the high cost of freight into Gippsland is encouraging buyers to seek alternative fibre sources such as palm kernel meal, and almond hulls, which can be delivered into the region for around $130-140/t.
• Cereal Hay –Steady- ($350-$400) – Supply of cereal hay is low but it is still accessible. The high cost of cereal hay is prompting buyers to look for alternatives like almond hulls and straw.
• Lucerne Hay – Steady – ($380-$420) – Lucerne hay is in vey short supply nationally.
• Vetch – Steady– ($400+) – There is very little available nationally.
• Straw – Steady – ($200-$220) – There is still some straw available being sourced from Central Victoria and the Wimmera-Mallee. Demand for straw is steady as buyers seek functional fibre and cheaper alternatives to cereal hay. However the freight back to Gippsland is adding significant cost for buyers who are advised to carefully calculate costs based on their nutritional requirements when looking to freight straw.
• Pasture – Steady – ($280-$300) –Very short supply of any grade pasture hay across Southern Australia, including the usual local supply of round bale pasture which has been cleaned out.

8. South West Vic – Grain Commentary

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• Port Fairy August rainfall: 5mm (Ave: 90.4mm).
• YTD: 455.6mm (Ave: 491.9mm), compared to 490.8mm this time last year.
• Conditions remain very wet throughout inland dairy areas despite minimal rain this week.
• SFW1 Wheat: $ +0 ($281 to $291). Prices remain steady as much of the trade is occurring from on-farm storage rather than from the major operators. A market perception that prices could possibly slide before the upcoming harvest.
• Feed Barley: $ +0 ($253 to $263). Victorian feed barley prices have been steady over the past month. Wheat still remains the main focus in the winter months.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($275 to $285). Triticale remains difficult to source for this region if farmers specifically require it.
• Feed oat $ -5 ($226 to $236) Feed oats are slipping in price as fewer sheep need grain oats as a paddock supplement. Prices have softened due to lower demand from south-eastern Australia.
• Paddocks are wet however there is very little feed in short sappy grass.
• June milk production was down 12.9 per cent on June 2012.
• With little autumn rain and too much over winter, grass growth continues to be slow. Farmers are hoping that better price and spring pasture will improve their positions.

8. South West Vic – Hay Commentary

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• Demand for fodder is slowing now with some more pasture and winter feed becoming available for grazing.
• Prices are starting to some back with a dip of about $20 across most fodder types.
• As per other dairy regions buyers are looking to cheaper alternative feed sources like almond hulls, which are trading for around $120-130/t, delivered into South West Victoria.
• Cereal – – $20- ($320 – $330): Cereal hay isn’t available in large quantities but supplies are still available from some of the key traders and exporters.
• Lucerne – – $20 – ($330-$350): The usual suppliers of lucerne from North Central Victoria and South East South Australia are very low or completely out of stock. Where there are supplies of vetch available it is trading at a similar price to Lucerne, slightly back on last week as well.
• Straw – Steady – ($130-$160): High-grade barley straw is priced between $120-$140 ex farm, wheat straw is about $100-$110 ex farm, supply is becoming low.
• Pasture hay – Steady – ($260 – $300): Pasture hay is in short supply and very difficult to source across the state.

9. South East SA – Grain Commentary

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• Mount Gambier August rainfall: 9mm (Ave: 95.4mm).
• YTD: 394.8mm (Ave: 491.4mm), compared to 404.8mm this time last year.
• Rains subsided this week when compared to recent weeks with the region receiving 5 to 15mm
• Wheat $ -3 ($290 to $300). Dairy farmers are still demanding wheat for higher energy to the cows in the winter months. Most of the wheat coming from the western Wimmera region at this point in time.
• Feed barley $ +0 ($269 to $279). Demand for feed barley is still low as cows require the extra energy from wheat.
• Triticale $ +0 ($275 to $285). Triticale sellers are not willing to drop their prices as they are well aware that grain feeding will continue for a longer period in this region
• Oat prices $ -5 ($220 to $230) Most of the sheep areas have enough new feed that they do not currently need any grain oat supplements. Price drop is being driven by the lack of demand.
• Incoming crops in western Victoria and southeast South Australia as well as the Murray Mallee are improving with June and July rains. Growers are hoping the wet winter will harbour a wet spring and a good finish.
• SA June milk production was down an enormous 13.9 per cent on the June 2012 figures.
• Many dairy farmers are facing unattractive financial decisions as they are forced to feed grain at high rates, or dry off lower producing cows.

9. South East SA – Hay Commentary

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• Fodder prices have started to come back this week as demand slows. Farmers are now starting to graze winter crops and pastures. As some of these crops are intentioned for hay follow up rain will be essential for a good fodder harvest and to avoid another fodder shortage in 2014.
• Cereal – -$20- ($280-$300): Cereal hay is still available in the key supplying regions and costs are starting to come back.
• Lucerne – -$20 – ($300-$320): Supply is becoming very low through the region.
• Straw – Steady – ($140-$160): Trading has picked up however there is little in excess throughout SA.
• Pasture – Steady – ($250-$280): Pasture has been snapped up early by the livestock buyers and is becoming harder to source now.
• Vetch – $320-$330 – There is still some vetch in stock and prices have eased a little from around $350/t delivered to about $325/t.

10. Central SA – Grain Commentary

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• Murray Bridge August rainfall: 2mm (Ave: 36.5mm).
• YTD: 245.2mm (Ave: 226.5mm). 322mm this time last year.
• South Australian crops are looking really good as grain growers continue to become more confident in this years incoming crop. Minimal rain was received in the last week with surrounding areas of central district receiving only 2-5mm.
• Wheat $ -6 ($294 to $304). Prices came down but wheat remains the grain of choice for dairy farmers at this time of year.
• Feed barley $ -3 ($262 to $272). It is now a very wide price margin to wheat and continuing to increase. Such a price discrepancy encourages feed barley to be used on dairy cows. The price represents attractive buying for a September delivery when the colder conditions have passed.
• Triticale $ -10 ($270 to $280). Supplies limited but it remains a good buy if it can be found at a $10 discount to the wheat price. It is expected to follow wheat down when the expected feed grain slide eventuates.
• Feed oats $ -5 ($218 to $228). Less sheep demand currently for oats with paddock feed increasing.
• SA June milk production was down a massive 13.9 per cent on June 2012 litres.
• Dairy farmers are positive about spring pasture prospects for the region with a wet winter so far.

10. Central SA – Hay Commentary

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• Hay supplies are low but traders are still getting a lot of enquiry, with the biggest demand coming out of the Victorian dairy regions.
• Prices remain firm and some buyers are reconsidering their fodder needs based on these high prices.
• Cereal Hay – Steady- ($250-$300) –Where cereal hay is available, quality is very high.
• Lucerne – Steady- ($300+) – Low supply is due to limited acreages and poor results from dryland Lucerne in SA this year. There appears to be no big quantities of Lucerne available anywhere on the domestic market.
• Straw – Steady – ($120-$130) – Any straw on farm is likely to be under contract but demand from the domestic market is fairly quiet at this stage.
• Vetch – Steady ($300+) – Where available growers are asking top dollar for good quality vetch hay.

11. South West WA – Grain Commentary

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• Bunbury August rainfall: 0mm (Ave: 115.7mm).
• YTD 439.8mm (Ave: 573.8mm), compared to 395.8mm this time last year.
• Rains this week very useful for central and southern grain areas. Bunbury and Harvey each had 63 millimetres and Busselton had 39mm. Rains were very well received for both dairy and grain prospects.
• Wheat: $ -5 ($312 to $322). Wheat remains the desired commodity in the colder conditions.
• Feed barley $ -5 ($287 to $297). There is the expectation feed grain prices will drop significantly as harvest approaches despite poor yield prospects within WA
• Triticale $ +0 ($285 to $295). Some triticale from the Esperance region trickling onto the market but not consistently on offer. Not at a bad discount to wheat currently but remains hard to find.
• Oats -10 ($195 to $205). Less demand for oats as it is no longer needed for sheep feed. Massive price drops in the last two weeks has been caused by holders of old season oats scramble to offload them.
• Protein sources are proving to be extremely expensive with Lupins $365 at Perth and a lower $A increasing prices of soybeans.
• June 2013 milk production was up 4.8 per cent on the June 2012 litres.
• Fodder making prospects remains good from selected paddocks.

11. South West WA – Hay Commentary

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• For growers in the key hay growing regions have had a good start to the season so far. Expecting good yields coming into this year’s harvest.
• Demand for hay is steady on the domestic market; WA hasn’t experienced the spike in demand from the domestic market as seen in other states.
• Parts of WA, particularly the eastern wheat belt have dried off quickly which could compromise their fodder harvest for 2013 in those areas.
• Cereal hay – Steady– ($200-$250): Cereal hay prices have increased this week due to the rising demand from the domestic market.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($400-$500) – Demand for Lucerne has increased, supply is running low and chaff mills are active buyers of premium quality hay. The main domestic activity is from local horse markets and prices are peaking at around $470/t on farm.
• Straw – Steady- ($90-$120): There is very little straw available for trading throughout the state. There is some lower grade straw around that didn’t make export grade after being rained on before baling.
• Pasture – Steady ($110 – $130): There seems to be good stocks of pasture hay available to trade.

12. North West Tasmania – Grain Commentary

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• Smithton August rainfall: 1.4mm (Ave: 119.9mm).
• YTD: 421.4mm (Ave: 594.9mm), compared to 518.6mm this time last year.
• North West coast had anything between 20-40mm in another week of significant rains for the region. With heavy winter rains and paddocks of autumn saved feed, grass is providing the bulk of milking cows feed intake.
• Wheat $ -30 ($360 to $370). Mainland grain sales are extremely slow. Despite the massive drop in price margin still favours wheat usage in dairy areas.
• Feed barley $ -25 ($350 to $360). Australian feed barley mainland prices steady with little interest in barley for cows in the colder winter months. Price drop reflected traders dropping prices to capture forward sales before perceived grain price falls as we approach the harvest period.
• Triticale prices $ +0 ($363 to $373). With wheat prices down major supply areas are southeast NSW and northeast Victoria.
• Oats prices $-5 ($313 to $323). With enough natural feed available the demand for oats is considerably less.
• June milk production was almost steady when compared to the previous year down 0.9 per cent.
• Providing the bulk of milking cows feed intake the grass is high in protein so no need for protein supplements.

12. North West Tasmania – Hay Commentary

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• Fodder supplies are very low in Tasmania and demand remains strong.
• With very limited supplies of fodder throughout Tasmania buyers have been seeking ryegrass straw and any other type of roughage they can source to get through winter. It is very cold and there is very little paddock feed available.
• Cereal Hay – Steady – ($205-$225): Stocks are very low due to lack of production for fodder and high competition in the grain sector.
• Lucerne – Steady – ($300-$350): Lucerne supplies are limited; silage in particular is in high demand but not easy to source.
• Straw – Steady – ($135-$145): Given the dry harvest conditions the quality of straw is high and is starting to move now, with demand at this time of year coming from mainland mushroom growers.
• Pasture Hay – Steady – ($160-$200): The supply of pasture hay low this year.