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Driving Prices Up
- Western Australia’s dry conditions continue with the requirement for additional fodder supplies to supplement available dry pasture feed for herds. This coupled with a smaller hay production this year is putting steadying and upward pressure on prices in the state.
- High cattle and sheep prices and the potential impact on fodder needs are causing some producers to forward contract fodder to ensure they have supplies needed.
- Exporters continue to be a player in the market and are looking to fill shipments as well as secure reasonably high volumes of available stock on hand. This is having an effect on export grade cereal prices, with a flow on effect to other fodder lines.
Driving Prices Down
- Pastures remain green across large parts of Australia and this feed is keeping demand lower than expected for this time of year traditionally. In some places this is seeing a reduction in pricing to get some fodder moving, but the market appears to be quite flat with little fluctuation currently.
- Some previous season lower quality cereal hay is available in the market as producers who have had additional fodder producing opportunities look to empty some sheds of older stores.
- Ongoing silage and hay production in most of Victoria, Tasmania and NSW is continuing to add more supply to the market keeping buyers optimistic about availability moving into autumn and winter.
- Concerns have been raised among graziers and members of the supply chain in relation to the MV Bahijah and the public perception of the conditions for the sheep and cattle on-board. Including the ramifications for the live export industry. This issue as well as the broader live export trade has been in the minds of many fodder producers as they contemplate long term business decisions.
- The Bureau has stated that El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However sea surface temperatures have peaked and are now declining. We are expected to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation levels in the southern hemisphere in autumn 2024. Some atmospheric indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line, are close to normal levels. The typical drying influence of El Niño on Australia’s climate usually reduces during summer, especially in the east; however, below median rainfall is still often observed in north-east Australia. As we have seen this year and through historical data, high-impact rainfall events can occur during El Niño years, particularly during October to April when severe storm frequency peaks.
- Buyers are encouraged to feed test and view fodder before purchase to be sure of the quality of feed.