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Driving Prices Up
- Dry conditions continue to drive demand in QLD and parts of NSW with local producers not able to meet all of the requirements, quite a bit of fodder is coming up from VIC and SA.
- Availability of fodder supplies is tight in some regions, requiring additional transports costs to be incorporated into fodder quotes. There are also some export opportunities removing some supply from the market.
- Suppressed saleyard prices are continuing to keep more livestock herds on-farm, and in some cases producers are looking to restock at the lower price, which is placing additional demands on fodder supplies.
Driving Prices Down
- Green feed availability is still moderately high across most of the southern states, which is reducing demand locally. Most growers in those states are moving their supply into the north to meet demand.
- Rebalancing of dormant lines of fodder is continuing, applying a downward push on some lines. However this appears to have almost reached an end with buyer and seller expectations becoming aligned.
- Feed alternatives such as cotton seeds and almond hulls are still being purchased by farmers seeking cheaper feed. However the current price of cotton seed is beginning to see an increase.
- There appears to be a reasonable amount of older supply being released into the market, most of this at lower quality, which is being reflected in the pricing.
- Trade in hay has increased over the last few weeks, especially out of areas such as VIC and SA where green feed is still available and into drier parts of the county such as the Darling Downs and most of NSW. In WA the south is shipping a reasonable supply up into the drier northern parts of the state.
- Growers and graziers in WA continue to voice concerns around the live export trade and the follow on effects from the possible ban on the trade. Growers have been relieved with the change to the ACH announced this week and reverting to the earlier Act.
- The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) El Niño Alert continues. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Climate model forecasts suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop in late winter or early spring. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive and is expected to return to neutral values in the coming week.
- Buyers are encouraged to feed test and view fodder before purchase to be sure of the quality of feed.