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Driving Prices Up
- Pastures are continuing to green up in areas that were previously badly affected by the dry conditions, however while optimism is high, good grazing is still some little time away so fodder supplies continue to be sourced.
- Restocking is continuing to ramp up and the number of animals heading to sale yards and abattoirs continues to decline, as producers maintain or increase their herds, this is keeping prices steady, if not actually increasing them.
- Transport costs and the difficulty in sourcing drivers are continuing to be a factor in the price of fodder delivered to farms, with shortages adding a premium to per kilometre charges.
- Exporters are reportedly still looking to fill shipments and are continuing to source cereal hay throughout the country to meet demand from newly reopened markets. This is keeping the price buoyant in cereal hay lines.
Driving Prices Down
- Green feed in Southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania are providing good grazing opportunities, however recent drying in South Australia may see the demand lift there in the longer term, but this should be met by local supply as the demand out of the previously drier NSW and QLD areas drops.
- Parts of southern Victoria have seen a good turnaround in pasture availability with recent rains sparking growth for both for hay production and for extended grazing opportunities which should continue to temper demand and keep prices stable.
- Silage and hay production in most of Victoria and parts of Southern NSW are filling local needs quite well, with much fodder only moving locally, which reduces transport costs.
- Recent restrictions on the sale and movement of fodder in QLD and NSW near the border in the wake of Fire Ant detection have now been lifted and fodder is moving in the region again.
- There is some thought that Western Australia’s hay production is lower than expected due to the season cutting off early and there may be some supply constraints in the second quarter of next year.
- The Bureau has declared that an El Niño and a positive IOD are underway. The declaration of these events, and their concurrence over spring, reinforces the Bureau’s long-range rainfall and temperature forecasts, which continue to predict warmer and drier conditions for much of Australia over the next three months. The confirmation of an established El Niño increases the likelihood that the event will be sustained through the summer period. Models indicate further warming is likely and that this El Niño is likely to persist until at least the end of February.
- Buyers are encouraged to feed test and view fodder before purchase to be sure of the quality of feed.