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Summary
Driving Prices Up
- Vetch and lucerne hay are likely to be in short supply this season which may result in higher prices.
- While the turnaround in conditions in Tasmania is seeing better pasture growth and more green feed availability, it has not alleviated the fodder storage shortage brought about by the lack of good autumn and winter feed and the draw down on stored fodder that resulted.
Driving Prices Down
- Due to the frost which impacted grain crops in southern New South Wales and northern Victoria, a number of grain producers are cutting crops for hay. Hay buyers are aware of this and are anticipating sufficient supply at lower cost and are therefore not rushing to purchase cereal hay immediately after it is baled.
- Uncertainty in relation to the quantity and quality of hay available this season remains, resulting in price variations across regions. Comments from contractors engaged for baling are thus far reporting limited work.
Local News
- The Australian Oilseed Federation (AOF) reports that large amounts of canola are being cut for hay as a result of frost. Most of the 2024 new season hay is yet to hit the marketplace, including that which is the result of frost-impacted crops. The next AOF crop report is due on 25 October.
- The BOM has released a Climate Driver Update, reporting that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, with both sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmospheric patterns at ENSO-neutral levels. Atmospheric indices, such as those related to pattens of surface pressure, cloud and trade winds, are broadly consistent with an ENSO-neutral state. Although some have displayed La Niña-like signals over the past several weeks, these signals have not been consistent. The Bureau’s model suggests SSTs are likely to remain within the ENSO-neutral thresholds throughout the forecast period to February 2025. The next update will be released on 29 October.
- Buyers are encouraged to feed test and view fodder before purchase to be sure of the quality of feed.