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Driving Prices Up
- Dry conditions in parts of QLD and NSW are increasing demand; however local stocks are less able to meet that supply need, which is leading to localised price increases. This is tempered by lower quality supply which is keeping prices fairly stable in some lines.
- Availability of fodder supplies is tight in some regions, requiring additional transports costs to be incorporated into fodder quotes. There are also some export opportunities removing some supply from the market.
- Quite a large portion of the available hay stocks are already contracted, leading to tightening of supply.
- Feedlots are continuing to look for quality fodder options and are pushing up demand for some lines.
Driving Prices Down
- There is still a fair amount of good green feed options available across most of the southern states, which is reducing demand locally. This is especially true in South Australia, southern Victoria and WA.
- Some price points are rebalancing after limited or no trade in those lines, which is seeing a better representation of the current market at a lower overall cost.
- There has been a good cotton harvest this year leading to an increase in the availability of cottonseed as a fodder source.
- Feed grain continues to offer a value for money option. Many farmers are buying grains due to concerns regarding the quality of some of the available hay.
- There appear to be a widespread surplus of straw available in the marketplace and some of this is being sold at clearance prices to get the stock moving out of producer’s sheds.
- Trade in hay continues to increase as the cooler temperatures are being felt across most regions. South Australia and parts of Victoria remain quiet with the abundance of green feed available and producers are looking for markets further afield in areas such as NSW and QLD.
- Concern amongst sheep graziers and the producers that supply them is continuing. Comments suggest that the flock in WA will be reduced significantly after this shearing season as the uncertainty around the future of the live trade export cause some graziers to destock or shift farming options.
- The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has revised its El Niño status from watch to alert, which indicates a 70% probability of an El Niño forming in 2023. This is roughly three times the normal chance of an El Niño. The outlook for July to September is that below median rainfall is likely to very likely for much of Australia. July to September both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to very likely to be warmer than median for virtually all of Australia excluding some inland regions.
- Buyers are encouraged to feed test and view fodder before purchase to be sure of the quality of feed.