READ THE FULL REPORT HERE.
Driving Prices Up
- While the pasture feed in the dry parts of Victoria and South Australia is continuing to rebound it is still a work in progress and there remains little available supply in those regions. This is requiring fodder to be sourced elsewhere and therefore freight is adding a substantial additional cost to fodder supplies.
- The unusual trend of north to south deliveries of fodder is continuing, and still causing localised reduction in available supplies as some producers can obtain better margins by shipping fodder south, leading to shortfall in some parts of Northern NSW.
- End users of fodder are entering into forward contracts with producers, especially in areas with low stocks, this is feeding into the expectation of less supply being available as the season progresses, and pushing up the cost of currently available supply.
Driving Prices Down
- Conditions in Western Australia have made a sharp turnaround and the season is looking much better, as well as good supply of pasture feed available. These have combined to see a slow but steady reduction in some lines.
- As the new season begins there is an increase in available supply in the marketplace. While this would normally lead to a quick reduction in prices, given the need to refill depleted stores in some parts if the country this is steadying rather than reducing prices.
- With the start of the next hay production season any remaining older stores are being cleared out at a discount to make room for the new season hay. This is especially evident in Northern and Central NSW and QLD.
Local News
- The dry conditions in the southern mainland states has been somewhat alleviated by the recent rains, but pastures are still rebounding and not at full utilisation. South Australia has seen good rainfall with the prospect that this will keep pasture feed available until spring rains arrive.
- Tasmania has seen some good rainfall, but this will still need some time to turn around the moisture deficit, so supplies remain tight. Fodder continues to be sourced from the mainland, but the process can be slow due to biosecurity measures.
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently neutral. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have been cooling since December 2023. This cooling is supported by a cooler than average sub-surface in the central and eastern Pacific. In June, the rate of cooling has decreased. La Niña Watch is in effect due to early signs that an event may form in the Pacific Ocean later in the year. A La Niña Watch does not guarantee La Niña development, only that there is about an equal chance of a La Niña developing. Early signs of La Niña have limited relevance to mainland Australia and are better reflections of conditions in the tropical Pacific.
- Buyers are encouraged to feed test and view fodder before purchase to be sure of the quality of feed.