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Driving Prices Up
- Pasture feed availability in the southern states continues to rebound, however there is strong feeling that a run of warm days will shut off the growth as there still remains a moisture deficit and pastures have little to pull from. As such supply remains constrained and in high demand, requiring the on-going shipping of fodder into the region.
- The start of hay production in QLD and NSW would normally see a drop in prices as new supply becomes available and demand eases, however many producers are only supplying to contracted end users or planning for the export market which is keeping supplies tight.
- The normally high hay production areas of Victoria and SA are looking to have a less than average production yield this season. This combined with the need to refill depleted hay stores and meet the expectations of the export market is leading to an uptick in prices in preparation for a perceived shortfall in supply.
Driving Prices Down
- Conditions in WA are continuing to improve and the next hay production season is looking more promising as well as a good supply of pasture feed availability. These have combined to see a slow but steady reduction in some lines.
- As the new season starts to move through the country there is an increase in available supply in the marketplace. While this would normally lead to a quick reduction in prices, given the need to refill depleted stores in some parts if the country this is steadying rather than reducing prices in most cases.
- With the start of the next hay production season any remaining older stores are being cleared out at a discount to make room for the new season hay. This is especially evident in Northern and Central NSW and QLD. While this is dropping the price point the quality is also lower.
Local News
- The underlying dry conditions in the southern states (Victoria, SA and Tasmania) remain, even with recent rainfall. Tasmania is seeing the best renewal of subsoil moisture but it is still insufficient to make up the shortfall and SA and VIC is very dependant in timely spring rains to keep pastures moving.
- Some of the croppers in parts of central QLD which saw frost damage are flipping their crops to hay production.
- The BOM indicates that ENSO and IOD are likely to remain neutral in spring 2024. Sea surface temperatures are neutral having gradually cooled from El Niño levels since December 2023. This cooling is being sustained by deep waters surfacing in the central and eastern Pacific. However, the extent and magnitude of cool water has decreased recently. Atmospheric patterns, including cloud and trade winds, are currently ENSO-neutral. The ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña Watch. La Niña Watch does not guarantee La Niña development, only that there is about an equal chance of ENSO remaining neutral or La Niña developing during the remainder of 2024.
- Buyers are encouraged to feed test and view fodder before purchase to be sure of the quality of feed.