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Summary
Driving Prices Up
- Western Australia’s dry conditions continue to have an adverse effect on the availability of feed and are placing fodder supplies in some demand. This coupled with a smaller hay production this year is putting increasing pressure on prices in the state.
- Some localised movement in prices in south west Victoria as well as South Australia as the summer conditions start to see drying off of available pastures and the push from dairy and livestock producers to ensure good quality supply heading into autumn and winter,
- Exporters continue to be a player in the market and are looking to fill shipments as well as secure reasonably high volumes of available stock on hand. This is having an effect on export grade cereal prices, with a flow on effect to other fodder lines.
Driving Prices Down
- Grass continues to grow across most parts of the east coast and is supplying good feed options for herds as well as opportunistic fodder production.
- An overall downward trend on pricing across multiple regions is being reported, this is due in part to continued good availability of pasture feed and a lack of urgent demand coupled with producers looking to move new season fodder into sheds, and requiring the movement of older stores to make room.
- There appears to have been some rebalancing between buyer need and supply availability seen recently with more producers and end users finding a comfortable middle ground for trade, however the marketplace is still relatively quiet for this time of year.
Local News
- The live export market issues are surfacing again, primarily in WA but also in other states as the dry conditions in WA drive a need to find a market for a large number of sheep who can no longer be supported by local pasture and affordable fodder supply.
- Over the spring 2023 to summer 2024 period, reports of hay fires seem to be much higher than previous seasons. AFIA is currently collating a list of hay fires across the country for this period, and if you are aware of other hay fire events we would welcome your input. Details can be found here https://afia.org.au/tracking-hay-fires/
- The Bureau has stated El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in the oceanic indicators. International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months. We are expected to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation levels in the southern hemisphere in autumn 2024. The typical drying influence of El Niño on Australia’s climate usually reduces during summer, especially in the east; however, below median rainfall is still often observed in north-east Australia. As we have seen this year and through historical data, high-impact rainfall events can occur during El Niño years, particularly during October to April when severe storm frequency peaks.
- Buyers are encouraged to feed test and view fodder before purchase to be sure of the quality of feed.